Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat

[Captain Shortwave]

As our current cold spell draws to a close. A new thread and a new chase for cold begins.

It might not be too far away if some models are to be believed

The ECM and ens suggesting the potential for a more northerly flow to develop at the very end of January and into the start of February. Will it come off? Who knows at the moment.

Enjoy and lets hope that we get a significant cold and snowy blast in the near future.

[snowbob]

Did our current cold spell start then

Must of missed it.

Just chilly with rain

Normal autumn weather.

Oh yeah and two frosts.

Never mind hope the next one fairs better for South of London.

Great for those that did get some snow though, but I believe that wasn't that great either.

Still awaiting a snowflake or even sleet

Edited January 22, 2015 by snowbob

[Jo S]

well seems warmer out side than in my home, the warmest place is my lounge, i can see my breath in every other room 

[steveinsussex]

E in an easterly air flow today; very chilly

Northerlys are awful for this area.

[Great Plum]

well seems warmer out side than in my home, the warmest place is my lounge, i can see my breath in every other room 

Have you still not got any oil?

[alexisj9]

4.1 the warmest temp all week here I think, cloudy dp quite low, 0.2, must be the continental air.

[Captain Shortwave]

The sun is breaking through here so I expect sunshine amounts to increase this afternoon, setting up a very cold night,

[Great Plum]

Sun out in Reigate too...

Current temp - 3.5c, dp - 0.9c

[Jo S]

Have you still not got any oil?

i have , thats why one room is warm, the rest blinking freezing, i will be sleeping in the lounge again tonight, on the floor, or i might die of the cold 

It looks like a summers day out there,wispy clouds ,suns out 

Edited January 22, 2015 by Jo S

[shotski]

Make the most of the present weekend folks, then batten down the hatches.

[shotski]

i have , thats why one room is warm, the rest blinking freezing, i will be sleeping in the lounge again tonight, on the floor, or i might die of the cold 

It looks like a summers day out there,wispy clouds ,suns out

Hope it doesn't get to chilly for you, some warmer weather on the way for the weekend :=)

[lassie23]

Where is everybody ? Sunny here and a barmy 6c

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Said it yesterday and yep sorry guys.. 

 

From Fergie.. 

 

Latest from UKMO unified model monthly suite (incorporating GloSea5) indicates unsettled phase first half of February. Thereafter, signal is more ambiguous, with increased number of blocked members. This *may* result in greater likelihood of colder episodes, but tonight's EC Monthly update is awaited to offer comparative prognosis. 

[Jo S]

im popping in and out of here, not much going on, as all is quiet on the weather front, off to watch a film now, i will be spying though       

[lassie23]

im popping in and out of here, not much going on, as all is quiet on the weather front, off to watch a film now, i will be spying though       

What film are you watching? :ninja: The temperature has dropped to 4.5c! :cold:

Edited January 22, 2015 by lassie23

[Jo S]

hi, well watching Asylum rubbish film, but i need to know whats going to happen, so one of them films, watched house on the haunted hill 1,2 all rubbish,  getting cold out there now

[fulham snow]

well seems warmer out side than in my home, the warmest place is my lounge, i can see my breath in every other room 

Maybe put the heating on

[Daniel*]

Dew point is low -3C must be some very chilly/dry continental air, as ever no PPN about when it is conducive, looks like we can wipe out Jan - and extend out towards Febuary for further wintery interest.

[Kent Blizzard]

This will be a good read for some, or for those that ask the same questions every half hour during a potential snow event...

 

As snow forecasted fails to materialise again, why is it so difficult to predict?

When rain is forecast it normally falls. When we are promised blue skies we can usually get out the sunglasses. But snow? Now that is a different story and so much harder to guarantee.

But why?

On Tuesday evening, up to 10cm (3.9in) of snow was predicted to fall in parts of Wales, with yellow warnings from the Met Office telling motorists of possible travel disruption.

But when curtains were drawn open on Wednesday morning, instead of being greeted by the crisp white stuff, the sight was of wet pavements.

So where were the predicted snow flurries and why was the forecast so wrong?

The Met Office admits forecasting snow "will always be a challenge" in the UK as there is often a "fine line between whether it will rain or snow". This means a difference in height or air mass can completely alter the outlook.

BBC weather presenter Rhian Haf said: "Predicting snow is harder than anything else.

"Most precipitation falls out of the sky as snow to start with, but it melts to rain."

Snow is more likely in higher areas as the temperature is cooler, meaning rain may fall as snow in mountainous areas giving the dusting of snow on peaks which is commonly seen at this time of year.

Equally, snow is less likely to fall in urban areas because of the warmer surroundings. In central London it will rain sometimes, while a relatively short way away just outside the M25 there is heavy snow.

"It only takes a tenth of a degree for it to be either rain or snow," said Rhian Haf.

"When we predict snow it will be falling somewhere, it is just hard to say whether it will be in one place or another.

From the BBC http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-30915183

[Southender]

Here is an interesting question to pass the time and perhaps kick off some interesting discussion...

Why is it 9 times out of 10 the "M4" is always quoted as the snow/rain line?

Is there a line of giant heaters along the M4 way up in the clouds?....I mean why oh why does it always seem to be the case.

Do the lows almost always take the same track etc?

It baffles me and pee's me off in equal measure. 

Edited January 22, 2015 by Shrimper

[Daniel*]

Here is an interesting question to pass the time and perhaps kick off some interesting discussion...

Why is it 9 times out of 10 the "M4" is always quoted as the snow/rain line?

It baffles me and pee's me off in equal measure. 

General rule of thumb to be honest there's no such thing as linear lines or as some think M4 motorway separating snow from rain. What you get in reality is abstract with indents and all sorts, it is usually less marginal futher north, not always though - ie. via an easterly, it is a buzz phrase, that can be misinforming.

[Andy H]

Roll on spring i say! getting bored of chasing snow for the last two years! hate these cold dull days

[Jo S]

Maybe put the heating on

economy heating way to expensive ,as long as i have one warm room, i ok, i begrudge paying extortionate heating bills ,ive only got electric, no gas, except calor gas heater, Oh no not i, i will survive as Gloria Gayner said, but she wasn't talking about warmth   

[Captain Shortwave]

Tonight

Skies should clear to leave a widespread air frost

Temperatures

Widely -1C to -3C. Perhaps down to -5C in sheltered spots.

 

Tomorrow

Strengthening south westerly wind

A dry and bright start, freezing fog in places to start. Cloud will increase later.

Temperature

3-5C

 

Overnight

A band of rain will push through overnight, this will clear by morning, a ground frost is possible early and late in the night.

 

Saturday

Moderate north westerly wind

A dry and sunny day for all pretty much.

Temperatures

4-6C

 

Overnight

Clear with a widespread frost

0C to -2C

 

Sunday

Moderate west/south westerly wind

A dry and bright start, cloud will increase during the day with rain by evening.

Temperatures - 6-9C

 

[Mesoscale]

Amarillo in Texas got over 12 inches of snow today...



Currently here though its -1.2C so... yeah...