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Atlantic Storms 2nd half of Winter


Spikecollie

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian

Will these storms be for the North or South?

The main stormy period looks to be Sunday night into Monday, probably N.Ireland and northern Britain

 

After the quiet lull of much of February it is all turning lively.

There is a low heading over southern Britain on Friday Day, bringing rain and strong winds around it. COuld go a bit deeper and bring gales to SW and S.coast, also will the heavy rain turn wintry on the northern edge. Welsh hills look likely to see a bit of snow. Not much signal at this stage off the NMM

SAturday is a cold day

Sat night/Sunday, rain band from west, coming in against that cold air, wintry possibilities for north mainly. Sunday is a wintry day

 

Sunday night into Monday worst of the winds in this 5 days spell as a low heads over the Northern Isles. So impact for N.Ireland, Scotland and N.England/N.Wales but fair way off. Could be snow for Scotland too

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Pretty large downgrades all round tonight. Not looking like any thing to exciting right now.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Been away for a few days with no internet access! Yes it looks like downgrades are now occurring, still looking very windy but not exceptionally so. Still time for upgrades though as it's 4 days away yet! You never know... :)

 

Just had a look at the ensembles and a fair few would produce gales & severe gales for central/northern areas. Certainly needs watching with possible impacts from this.  

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=96

Edited by *Sub*Zero*
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Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon

This is combining with very high spring tides

 

Not really on the scale of last winter, but the coastline around here is taking a battering again

 

http://www.northdevonjournal.co.uk/PHOTO-Westward-Ho-takes-early-battering-high/story-26058890-detail/story.html

 

10 foot+ waves expected Mon / Tues, but the highest tides will be receeding by then

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Very windy for the north on the UKMO 12z @ 120hrs, much more southerly track than the GFS, lets see what the ECM thinks. 

 

post-9615-0-95932800-1424537240_thumb.gi

Edited by *Sub*Zero*
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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

ECM similar to the UKMO but a bit further north with the low centre keeping the strongest winds for NW Scotland, so still a few days until the track is nailed down. 

post-9615-0-86596100-1424550399_thumb.gi

 

Monday also looking very windy.

 

post-9615-0-74871400-1424550388_thumb.gi

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bromsgrove, Worcestershire
  • Location: Bromsgrove, Worcestershire

Not a hugely impressive system I have to say , I like a powerful Atlantic storm, a lot of downgrades past few days or so.

 

 

Still a bit breezy..

post-7891-0-85511200-1424640684_thumb.pn

Edited by mildmuck
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Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland

Windy day so far with gusts just over 50mph being reported around coastal areas in the North of the UK with 66mph being the highest so far.

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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

Question. Is that a mesovortice just to the SW of the main depression?

20150223.1200.msg_3.visir.bckgr.Europe_E

 

It is a more complex beastie than the models show. WV animation on Seviri. (load and use mouse roller)

 

http://brunnur.vedur.is/myndir/seviri/2015/02/23/seviri_nat_wv_high.html

 

ICON hi-res, with the icosahedral zoom, has modelled it well.

 

icon-7-8_pbh1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

It's like looking at the boundary between two fluids and the vortex's that spin off it? Meto visible sat does show rotation in the feature.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

2nd day of Spring on tonights GFS would certainly be interesting!! Severe gales, snow & windchill all in the mix! Recipe for a good blizzard...

Edited by *Sub*Zero*
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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Question. Is that a mesovortice just to the SW of the main depression?

20150223.1200.msg_3.visir.bckgr.Europe_E

It landed on the west coast of Ireland with a gust of 85mph recorded yesterday. 

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

My latest Synoptic Analysis - which has a look at the last few days of February and the prospects of a stormy start to March:

 

http://www.netweathe...ryid=6476;sess=

 

Like the 12z, 18z GFS has the deep low too on Monday, though a little further north, but still with damaging wind gusts for Scotland, especially the north:

 

post-1052-0-11065600-1424817343_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The 00z GFS still has some nasty weather for Scotland on Monday. It should be noted the ecm interpretation is completely different.

Chart weatherbell

post-12275-0-00716100-1424847020_thumb.p

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

The 00z GFS still has some nasty weather for Scotland on Monday. It should be noted the ecm interpretation is completely different.

Chart weatherbell

 

Probably why the experts are calling it 'low risk' at the moment. A case of the GFS going all gung ho on it, i should imagine?!

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Probably why the experts are calling it 'low risk' at the moment. A case of the GFS going all gung ho on it, i should imagine?!

 

To honest I don't know what's going on. This the latest fax from JOMOC fot 00z Monday

post-12275-0-70117500-1424858956_thumb.p

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