Atlantic Storms 2nd half of Winter

[Zenarcher]

Looks like at the moment only the GFS is showing interest in the storm it will either drop the idea later or the rest of the models will catch onto it.

[Liam J]

Storm still on the GFS 12z, strongest winds over N Ireland, S Scotland and N England, looks quite vicious.

 

[The PIT]

Slight downgrade on GFS this evening run. Too far away to get excited yet. GEM has it further south and less intense. I suspect a T84 on the UKMO run would show it in a similar spot as in the GEM. JMA further south still and even less intense. ECM not out yet but it certainly looks there will be something. Won't really know until Friday evening to get a good fix on it. Now the waiting game. 

[The PIT]

GFS following other models with the system or rather systems further south. Some nasty conditions for the south subject to downgrades or rarer upgrades before then

[knocker]

It seems more a timing issue although the METO is a tad further north.

Chart weatherbell

 

[Zenarcher]

GFS does seem to be downgrading the storm and moving it more South still a chance of some windy weather though.

[Zenarcher]

The late Sunday into early Monday Storm has pretty much vanished from the GFS and now looks more likely that it won't happen. A low pressure system is still forecast to pass over Ireland, England and Wales on Sunday though bringing strong gusty winds of 50 to 60mph.

[The PIT]

I wouldn't be surprised if that downgraded as well on the next two runs. Pretty poor handling of storm features and has been a trend this winter. Last winter it was cold that vanished into mild. So despite improvements we're still struggling to get a reliable time beyond T96.

[The PIT]

Slight change with GFS upgrading the low pressure intensity and therefore moving it further north so Mid Scotland and northern England now the most effected.

[The PIT]

Slight push further north again gusts up to 70 maybe over Ireland and North western Scotland more likely to be 60 mph. Northern England may get 50 mph +.

[Abyss]

Matt hugo twitter "Hints of some sig upper level air getting down/wrapped into the develop low Sat night...S Scot seeing sig gusts."

Sting Jet possible?

[Nouska]

Matt hugo twitter "Hints of some sig upper level air getting down/wrapped into the develop low Sat night...S Scot seeing sig gusts."

Sting Jet possible?

 

Lively looking 925mb wind profile!

 

[YiRda]

Lets hope its more potent than it is

[The PIT]

Pushed slightly further north on this run. For the majority nothing of major interest.

[Mokidugway]

Yep , nothing out of the ordinary , move along please .....

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Winds picking up now, gusts reaching 60mph in  Western Ireland.

 

[sunnijim]

Yep , nothing out of the ordinary , move along please .....

Story of the winter storm wise for most,charts flattering to decieve a week out before the downgrades start.

A couple of wind storms for the Shetlands and NW Scotland apart, a total bust this winter for the majority.

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Gusts up to 70mph now across Western Ireland. Windy here too.

[Zenarcher]

Very windy night in some places at the moment Northern Ireland has seen a gust of 77mph around 8pm. Gusts just over 70mph have also been reported in the SW of Scotland.

[Mokidugway]

Funny ,doesn't seem that bad out !!..

[Insert Name Here]

Pretty rough here in ayrshire at the mo. Did that sting jet happen?

[Mokidugway]

Pretty rough here in ayrshire at the mo. Did that sting jet happen?

don't think so , but it looks very stormy on Scottish western coast !!..

[Zenarcher]

The wind has started to drop down over Ireland but still seeing some gusts of 60mph. The wind has moved into Southern Scotland now 40 to 55mph gusts are being reported in many places with Glasgow airport at 64mph.

[Mokidugway]

I am picking up gusts o 50 mph now !!..

[Zenarcher]

Looking through the weather station data here's the 5 top wind speed gusts,

 

Western and Northern Ireland

 

Belmullet 77mph

Clifden Boat Club 70mph

Rathlin Island 60mph

Edernish Island 55mph

Tully More 49mph

 

South West Scotland

 

Furnace 72mph

Otter ferry 70mph

Islay 68mph

Barra 67mph

Tiree 58mph

 

Southern Scotland

 

Helensburgh 71mph

Cairngorm Mountains 65mph

Glasgow Airport 64mph

Bardowie Loch 60mph

Inverkip 54mph