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BlueHedgehog074

By BlueHedgehog074
in Regional

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

can see the pattern flattening out on Mon 2nd Feb, GFS dosent look too bad with mostly dry high pressure from Feb 2nd, but feel it's underdoing the zonal flow, expect on todays GFS runs for zonal low pressure to dominate (in a mild position) around Tue 3 Feb

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weather_it_will Contributor

weather_it_will

Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire/Warwickshire/North Oxfordshire
  • Location: Worcestershire/Warwickshire/North Oxfordshire
Posted

Big downgrades yet again it seems.

It was never going to be a major snow event for the Midlands away from the highest hills.

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

It was never going to be a major snow event for the Midlands away from the highest hills.

 

no it wasn't, but now early Feb is looking mild, was looking much better yesterday, it will be westerlies from Mon 2nd

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weather_it_will Contributor

weather_it_will

Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire/Warwickshire/North Oxfordshire
  • Location: Worcestershire/Warwickshire/North Oxfordshire
Posted

It was never going to be a major snow event for the Midlands away from the highest hills.

 

Maybe we have better luck in 2nd half of February if the strat warming effects come into play.

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andy_leics22 Rising Star

andy_leics22

Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
Posted

It was never going to be a major snow event for the Midlands away from the highest hills.

Agreed. In fact at the moment, the 00z and this mornings 06z look very similar to yesterdays runs for wednesday-saturday. Friday and Saturday will be rain and sleet unless you are above about 250m i'm afraid. They have been showing that consistently for a few days now. Wednesday night and Thursday may be more promising though.

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Arctic Hare Accomplished

Arctic Hare

Posted
  • Location: Bewdley, Worcs; 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and sun in winter; warm and bright otherwise; not a big storm fan
  • Location: Bewdley, Worcs; 90m asl
Posted

Steady as she goes; Thursday still looking possible for something, even if it'll probably be mostly dry. And at least this isn't like whenever it was (2008-ish?) that IIRC the GEFS members had total agreement, all 20 of them, on a lengthy cold spell... which disappeared a few hours later. And it's still a hundred times better than last winter, when our chances of anything cold/wintry were zero. So yes, still keeping calm here.

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kmanmx Aficionado

kmanmx

Posted
  • Location: South Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Cold
  • Location: South Leicestershire
Posted

Nice to see warnings extended further south even if they don't reach most of us. Could atleast get some snow showers, even if it's not worth giving a warning about.

 

The MetO not-a-forecast houry forecast has me down for some light and heavy snow come the early hours of Thursday, so there is still hope of seeing something.

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picog Aficionado

picog

Posted
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow
Posted (edited)

Dew points, 850 temps and wet bulbs temps all look good for snow on Thursday, so we might get lucky IF there is any precipitation around - maybe the disturbances in the airflow will provide the entertainment we need.

Edited by picog
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PolarWarsaw Seasoned

PolarWarsaw

Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire
Posted (edited)

Big downgrades yet again it seems.

 

I'm sorry TW but this is just total bullonions again. When will people learn that output at T144 is just a bunch of computers punching numbers and trying to pick up on trends? Until that trend gets to T72 (IE for Wed/Thurs today) then there's only a small percentage of it happening. Until it gets to T24...T12 and T0 it can't be a downgrade, because there was no rubber stamped trends that were definitive. It's not a downgrade.

 

Originally this was going to be a chilly 48-72 hour spell, with a small chance of a few snow showers on Wed eve/Thurs - which is EXACTLY what the models have shown this morning. Thereafter, there was a hint at something colder with higher pressure, mixed with the atlantic returning. There was no set trend, never has been - just a few computer generated outputs showing the chance of extending the cold spell..and an equal amount bringing the atlantic in...is that not an upgrade for the atlantic today? 

 

I used to live in the same mindset as you, letting computer generated models rule the mood of my day and I'm afraid to say that's the only 'pathetic thing this winter'. Broaden your horizons, get out the house, go to the pub, pick up other hobbies....there are people around the world ill and dying everyday..there's far more to life. Either that, or get down the docs and pop a few happy pills. You will end up with Bipolar if you don't change something.

 

Sorry to rant TW but this has been going on for about 2 months now and it's become very annoying, very samey and frankly - misleading to newbies. There is only downgrades today if you were gullible enough to put faith in computer models at 7 days + - when honestly, they are about as accurate as a modern day Emile Heskey in the penalty box.

Edited by PolarWarsaw
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fizz511 Enthusiast

fizz511

Posted
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull. 122m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull. 122m ASL
Posted

I'm sorry TW but this is just total bullonions again. When will people learn that output at T144 is just a bunch of computers punching numbers and trying to pick up on trends? Until that trend gets to T72 (IE for Wed/Thurs today) then there's only a small percentage of it happening. Until it gets to T24...T12 and T0 it can't be a downgrade, because there was no rubber stamped trends that were definitive. It's not a downgrade.

 

Originally this was going to be a chilly 48-72 hour spell, with a small chance of a few snow showers on Wed eve/Thurs - which is EXACTLY what the models have shown this morning. Thereafter, there was a hint at something colder with higher pressure, mixed with the atlantic returning. There was no set trend, never has been - just a few computer generated outputs showing the chance of extending the cold spell..and an equal amount bringing the atlantic in...is that not an upgrade for the atlantic today? 

 

I used to live in the same mindset as you, letting computer generated models rule the mood of my day and I'm afraid to say that's the only 'pathetic thing this winter'. Broaden your horizons, get out the house, go to the pub, pick up other hobbies....there are people around the world ill and dying everyday..there's far more to life. Either that, or get down the docs and pop a few happy pills. You will end up with Bipolar if you don't change something.

 

Sorry to rant TW but this has been going on for about 2 months now and it's become very annoying, very samey and frankly - misleading to newbies. There is only downgrades today if you were gullible enough to put faith in computer models at 7 days + - when honestly, they are about as accurate as a modern day Emile Heskey in the penalty box.

Maybe he's quite young PW? His comments always slightly sound like a teenage rant to me...? (I had to put him on my Ignore list in the end, as he was starting to make me as depressed as he was!)

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andy_leics22 Rising Star

andy_leics22

Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
Posted

To be honest,the 06z is an upgrade if you are looking for a prolonged cold spell. If that run were to turn out close to what it's saying now, we would be in for a 8-9 day cold spell. That isn't bad really, much better than last Winter anyway.

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The Wolf Enthusiast

The Wolf

Posted
  • Location: South Staffs
  • Location: South Staffs
Posted

Maybe he's quite young PW? His comments always slightly sound like a teenage rant to me...? (I had to put him on my Ignore list in the end, as he was starting to make me as depressed as he was!)

 

I am not a teenager. Just not very happy at our lack of snow.

Sorry this winds you up so much.

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DIS1970 Community Regular

DIS1970

Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme Weather, Tornado's, Heavy snowfall, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wolverhampton
Posted

Yep,nothing like.

 

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DIS1970 Community Regular

DIS1970

Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme Weather, Tornado's, Heavy snowfall, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wolverhampton
Posted

Nothing to worry about in Wolves, just some light rain,sleety,snow and a bit cloudy & windy. BBC/Met Office over cooking it again as usual.

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snowangel32 Rising Star

snowangel32

Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
Posted

06z is a much better run short term and long term for us. So we have snow forecast by the met for a good few hours from wed nite into thurs , also the air is very unstable at the moment so troughs and ppn are likely to crop up at very short notice. I truly can't see what people are getting upset about.

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DIS1970 Community Regular

DIS1970

Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme Weather, Tornado's, Heavy snowfall, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wolverhampton
Posted

Not getting upset just stating what the metoffice has said for my area, there is a chance of the cheshire gap effect though.

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Laurie61 Apprentice

Laurie61

Posted
  • Location: ST 18, Staffordshire. 80 m asl, Watson W-8681
  • Location: ST 18, Staffordshire. 80 m asl, Watson W-8681
Posted

So turning colder from midweek seems confirmed, just what turns up in a raw northerly. Have to say I would be concerned if we were looking at this   http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/25/us-usa-weather-idUSKBN0KW26Z20150125   :help:

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

06z is a much better run short term and long term for us. So we have snow forecast by the met for a good few hours from wed nite into thurs , also the air is very unstable at the moment so troughs and ppn are likely to crop up at very short notice. I truly can't see what people are getting upset about.

 

Andy is right, anything oin fri and sat will fall as rain, Wed and thur winds too westerly for cheshire Gap effect

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snowangel32 Rising Star

snowangel32

Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
Posted

Not getting upset just stating what the metoffice has said for my area, there is a chance of the cheshire gap effect though.

Is this the same met that forecast heavy snow last week within 6 hours of the event only for it to be a washout. All I am saying is look at he two runs today they are vastly different so nothing is decided yet short or long term and they won't be able to narrow down the ppn track and intensity until wed morn at least. But I think us midlanders will get a covering and few cms on higher ground. Thurs to Friday is still very marginal and could go either way.

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