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Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->


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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Surely the clock is ticking now. The sun is now producing a tangible warmth (well we are the sunniest place in the UK) Do the models take this into account? It would appear that any snow is becoming increasingly unlikely in the far South based on the most recent outputs

 

It's the 1st of feb.

 

Not the 1st of April!

 

As long as you get deep cold in then it really doesn't matter just the source of getting deep cold in becomes much harder.

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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

I know it has been mentioned that the MJO is not expected to be a player in the near future but I wonder if that will actually be the case. Perhaps the idea of heights retrogressing to Greenland and a Euro trough might soon appear on future modelling.

 

The multi-model chart for the MJO has more agreement than of late and there is a bit of amplification. Note the UKMO is not at the party but only shows a week rather than the fortnight.

 

ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

 

 

The composites for six, seven and eight are all plausible with six/going on seven already showing in current suite.

 

FebruaryPhase6gt1500mb.gifFebruaryPhase7gt1500mb.gif  FebruaryPhase8gt1500mb.gif

 

 

 

I've chosen the composites that are not specific for El Nino as I don't believe the atmosphere and ocean are properly coupled.

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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

If there is no retrograde of the high any deep cold for this winter is done.

Two weeks of the high siting there then it sinks back for zonailty for lengthy spell then bobs your uncle march has arrived .

This has to be the form horse now

Still plenty of time left for a good cold snowy spell ,just a week would be fantastic .theres every possibility that high pressure could finish up in a favourable position .but we are now looking at the models with interest as we are in the last third of winter but still March as well .Plenty of different long term situations showing from variouse outputs so hang in there ,cheers gang , :cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

If there is no retrograde of the high any deep cold for this winter is done.

Two weeks of the high siting there then it sinks back for zonailty for lengthy spell then bobs your uncle march has arrived .

This has to be the form horse now

 

 

Surely the clock is ticking now. The sun is now producing a tangible warmth (well we are the sunniest place in the UK) Do the models take this into account? It would appear that any snow is becoming increasingly unlikely in the far South based on the most recent outputs

 

Some people getting very despondent in here tonight. We still have at least another 6 weeks in my eyes, we had this setup in March only a couple of years ago which turned out pretty good for many. Still time, still time..

 

Lol just seen post above

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Edited by Polar Climate
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

I know it has been mentioned that the MJO is not expected to be a player in the near future but I wonder if that will actually be the case. Perhaps the idea of heights retrogressing to Greenland and a Euro trough might soon appear on future modelling.

 

The multi-model chart for the MJO has more agreement than of late and there is a bit of amplification. Note the UKMO is not at the party but only shows a week rather than the fortnight.

 

ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

 

 

The composites for six, seven and eight are all plausible with six/going on seven already showing in current suite.

 

FebruaryPhase6gt1500mb.gifFebruaryPhase7gt1500mb.gif  FebruaryPhase8gt1500mb.gif

 

 

 

I've chosen the composites that are not specific for El Nino as I don't believe the atmosphere and ocean are properly coupled.

Would agree with this - so would not write off after the end of next week, but one has to say it doesn't look likely. Stratospherically, some runs are pushing the vortex back over towards Greenland whilst others are keeping the Eurasian displacement allowing better tropospheric posibilities.

 

Still is a very long toppler!

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare North Somerset
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare North Somerset

well a couple of things about ECM that I have noticed, 1, the progression between +144 and +168 looks way to fast for me , a 1020 High , to our NE replaced with a 995 low in 24 hours seems to quick . and also even if ECM is right in it's end frames , the core of the reformed Vortex is yet again trying to move East into Scandi . In turn this could set up yet another Northerly . 

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Posted
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.

I think we should wait for the ensembles to come out first. One thing for sure there are plenty of possibilities on the table so no reason to be dispondent!!

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

It's not even as though we are currently enduring a prolonged zonal period with no end in sight. Quite the opposite in fact, which makes such whinges even more incomprehensible. For a start some of us have 5 or 6 days of very cold weather yet to come. Thereafter, plenty of options are on the table. Even if we end up with a uk high ( IMHO the most likely possibility right here, right now), what happens thereafter is very very much up for grabs and even THAT doesn't even take us to mid month!?

Edited by Paul
Removed the un-needed stuff
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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

Surely the clock is ticking now. The sun is now producing a tangible warmth (well we are the sunniest place in the UK) Do the models take this into account? It would appear that any snow is becoming increasingly unlikely in the far South based on the most recent outputs

Not sure how that equates with two years ago when we had a January and a February with below average temperatues followed by a March that was colder than both of them

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Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl

Very cold week ahead after that is FI, models change ever

y day, s4lancia is spot on, also why is everyone acting like ECM has it modelled perfectly. :fool:

you are right anything after 7 days you might as well pull a chart out of a hat.but up to 7 days the euro models are miles better than the rest no question on that

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

He was basically saying to look for pressure rises to our north west in the hope that this will eventually bring much colder weather.

Are you expecting the block to retrogress to Greenland?

 

Anyone that is I suspect will be disappointed, at least in the 6-15 day time frame, NOAA seems fairly consistent with both 6-10 and 8-14 charts this evening. From what I saw over the past 5-6 days and the one issued last evening then an upper dige over the Uk with something of a westerly flow at 500mb thereafter seems most likely.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

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The way I see things our best bet of deep cold and significant snowfall is if the high ridges north east as per the 06z run

or if our high manages to find that little bit more  amplification north.

If this is not to be then I fear we could be locked into a very mundane type pattern post day 7 for at least a week or so. 

I certainly can not see any ridging north towards Greenland that will be beneficial to us in the next 14 days.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Anyone that is I suspect will be disappointed, at least in the 6-15 day time frame, NOAA seems fairly consistent with both 6-10 and 8-14 charts this evening. From what I saw over the past 5-6 days and the one issued last evening then an upper dige over the Uk with something of a westerly flow at 500mb thereafter seems most likely.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

 

I was just going to post the anomalies but I see John has already done it so I'll just add the T240 GFS and ECM which are in broad agreement. No appreciable change on the extended GFS or ECM

Charts courtesy weatherbell

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post-12275-0-25641700-1422823713_thumb.p

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

Interesting, I just watched the week ahead and they mentioned the possibility of even colder air returning next week?

 

Also this 

 

Fergie

Incidentally, one thing we've been watching for since EC-EPS output yesterday is potential for another colder N'ly later next week, depending on high orientation. One to watch. 

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

Interesting, I just watched the week ahead and they mentioned the possibility of even colder air returning next week?

 

Also this 

 

Fergie

Incidentally, one thing we've been watching for since EC-EPS output yesterday is potential for another colder N'ly later next week, depending on high orientation. One to watch. 

To be fair, that would sit with Steve Murrs prognosis from earlier. The data we are seeing isn't great tbh, but of course, we don't get to see the real whizzy stuff the meto have.

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Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.

A route to 'real winter' from a 1040 mb high stuck over the uk until mid month?

I'm struggling, as to me it would seem we need a 'pattern reset',as to what form that will take we can't be sure,imo it will be week zonality for a while before somthing more wintry is on the agenda again (fingers crossed) to get near to a decent freeze, we still have time.

That leaves the last week of february if all the pieces of the jigsaw fall into place.

That has produced a very decent spell more than once in my lifetime,into the first week of march if you lock decent cold and snowfall in.

However i think thereafter its goodbye to any severe cold/snow,events are marginal,short term, certainly for those in the South.

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Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington

A route to 'real winter' from a 1040 mb high stuck over the uk until mid month?

I'm struggling, as to me it would seem we need a 'pattern reset',as to what form that will take we can't be sure,imo it will be week zonality for a while before somthing more wintry is on the agenda again (fingers crossed) to get near to a decent freeze, we still have time.

That leaves the last week of february if all the pieces of the jigsaw fall into place.

That has produced a very decent spell more than once in my lifetime,into the first week of march if you lock decent cold and snowfall in.

However i think thereafter its goodbye to any severe cold/snow,events are marginal,short term, certainly for those in the South.

been marginal all winter for us in the south so five to six weeks of models can only get better for us .

Might as well of been march since November to be honest.

Never been real cold.

Every event has been marginal.

Really hoping the models pick up something from the east soon or it's the second year of no cold and snow.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Just looking @ 12z 144hrs gefs charts,

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=144

 

pin the tail on the center of the high preasure anyone?

 

who knows where it is going to sit come t0

 

looking @ the above,there is energy going into siberia/scandi,give it a westward shift on that and we would be in another northerly.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Cold in via the backdoor?  Certainly not an impossibility, there's much to be decided with regarding to how early Feb's going to pan out!

 

gfsnh-1-162.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

Colder air not far away on this run, an improvement, 12z and 18z for comparison

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .

The 18z op drops the high over us even more quickly. Here we are Thursday:

 

post-2020-0-41687200-1422829711_thumb.pn

 

Then it strengthens over the top:

 

post-2020-0-21030900-1422829780_thumb.pn

 

This high on the current outputs isn't particularly cold either:

 

post-2020-0-13261900-1422829891_thumb.pn

 

We may get inversion from that so that ironically with warmer uppers we have colder mean temps.

 

The biggest problem here is the danger of the high becoming static. However, as we have seen, things can change fast.

Edited by Osbourne One-Nil
Edited to remove the oddly emotive language.
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