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Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->


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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

We are slowly drifting into the quietest phase of weather thus far this winter I think?

 

Lots of excellent posts today summarising where we are, with two competing signals, the retrograding high and the the forcing of the PV.

GFS has thus far come up with a draw while the Euros have a narrow points win for the retrogressing high - no knockout blows either way which means we will be mostly under the influence of high pressure from the 5th out to the foreseeable.

 

There is a very small chance that the high could yet be modelled further West to give us a more Northerly aspect to the flow but ECM already looks like being about as good as it gets in that direction. However if the were some large unexpected changes to the upstream pattern the potential to draw in the colder upper air once more from the N/NE is there from day 7 but very low probability at the moment we can get anything sustained within those time-frames.

 

My best guess would be a much slower development with the high slowly moving back SW and unsettled weather slowly making inroads from the North not unlike this mornings ECM.

I think that snow chances are going to be very limited from the 5th unfortunately but we will have some dry and frosty winter weather to enjoy instead of wind and rain as compensation.

If you are looking for the next cold pattern to set up with snow chances, then barring some big and fairly immediate changes in the output, I think we should be looking in the 10-15 day range where we may see the pattern reamplify further west and a deep trough push through the UK and into Europe once again. Not dissimilar to this current cold spell but this time with higher latitude blocking taking shape. It would be a very cold final 3rd of February if that were to happen.

 

If you want mild weather instead then there is still hope for you as well as the pattern may be less amplified and further East giving a lot of dry mild weather to the SE and wet and windy in the far North.

 

I think it will be a few days before we can see a clearer route ahead. At the moment there is no clear signal from the models of how to develop the pattern from day 5.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Bit of a update for the next 5 days. Europe to turn much colder with a developing cold pool and associated trough to form alignment Denmark to Germany. Cold pool to move through Low Countries and into Southeast Britain ( Thursday into Friday ) with fairly good probability rate of some snowfall in the deeper cold air mass as it advects SW. Into the weekend looks dry for most parts of the UK but still cold. Beyond that still some uncertainty regarding of positioning of the main high in the vicinity of Britain. Clear signals from todays discussion is the cold weather is going to hard to shift and that applies to UK. Maybe see some changes on this evening runs .

C

Edited by carinthian
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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

Yes, just did a trawl through GFS modelled min and max temps for the CET area ....max 5c ...min -3c ... are averages out to 240 hours. It will need a big swing in second half for this to be anything other than a very cold month.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

If Ian F is reading I (and i'm sure other readers) would love an update on HIS view for the potentail Northerly late in the week / next weekend.  He also mentioned in the SW thread about snow reaching quite far west (to the east of his region) on Thurs with "Bothersome" snow possible for the SE.  Does HE think the Meto to firm up on this & issue warnings soon?

Tim I think Ian would probably highlight a lot of uncertainty. The models disagree from within T96hrs upstream and what happens there effects any potential northerly. The northerly of it does happen is more likely to be a cold injection from the ne around the eastern flank of the high sw into the UK.

 

I made a detailed post on the previous page regarding the importance of the T96hrs timeframe, in a nutshell if the GFS 06hrs run is right upstream theres no chance of a northerly towards the end of next weekend, with the ECM a chance but a westwards correction would help and a more favourable topple of the high, the UKMO backs the ECM upstream but its coastal low is flatter and will run too far east.

 

At least the ECM and UKMO are on the same page upstream, the GFS is reading a completely different book. All will be revealed this evening!

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Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire

Tim I think Ian would probably highlight a lot of uncertainty. The models disagree from within T96hrs upstream and what happens there effects any potential northerly. The northerly of it does happen is more likely to be a cold injection from the ne around the eastern flank of the high sw into the UK.

 

I made a detailed post on the previous page regarding the importance of the T96hrs timeframe, in a nutshell if the GFS 06hrs run is right upstream theres no chance of a northerly towards the end of next weekend, with the ECM a chance but a westwards correction would help and a more favourable topple of the high, the UKMO backs the ECM upstream but its coastal low is flatter and will run too far east.

 

At least the ECM and UKMO are on the same page upstream, the GFS is reading a completely different book. All will be revealed this evening!

 

 

ECM stamps out at 120hrs for the 06z shows large variations on the location and shape of this high, quite a few show it on a nw/se axis. cant see from there onwards obviously but on these nw/se set ups shown I would guess a northerly would follow as low heights slid down the into the low countries/ baltics.  

post-4955-0-96966000-1422892474_thumb.gi

Edited by Nicholas B
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

First of the 12'z to fully update is the GME similar idea to the others in the short term with the high gradually moving towards the UK with the centre of the high west of Ireland setting up a north easterly breeze looks pretty cold especially in the SE corner later this week with some light snow showers possible as well

 

gme-1-66.png?02-12gme-1-84.png?02-12

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

12Z shows that it is possible to get a very cold sourced northerly at our latitude - now we just need to work on the longitude aspect!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Yes GFS has moved a little toward the Euros this afternoon but so much more progressive than UKMO at 120

 

UN120-21.GIF?02-17gfsnh-0-120.png

 

The UKMO 120 chart is definitely moving in the right direction (west in this case) with more amplification.

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Very cold 850s pouring into Germany on this run. gfsnh-1-144.png?12

 

You feel it really wouldn't take much adjustment for the Southeast to get an invite to the party.

Edited by Yarmy
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Just a little tweak to the angle of advection to the west of the high at day 5 UKMO and that is a stellar chart.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

144s

Huge discrepancies over vortex placement between GFS and UKMO. UKMO anchors most of it over towards the east whereas the GFS places it more centrally and less disturbed generally.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire

UKMO nearly splitting the vortex again at 144hrs.

I think we could get 'back in the game' a lot quicker then some were expecting.

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

Big tease from the UKMO, 144 almost a  :yahoo: chart. Saw somewhere that Ian did say MetOffice were monitoring the chance of a possible colder northerly next weekend...

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Posted
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL

Massive differences but shourly the UKMO model, designed by us for use in our difficult part of the world must have a better handle on things? Its much further west than the GFS with the high. Not far off getting that reload here.

 

GFS 12z does have the high more NW than the 6z, so it is trending in the right direction at least!

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

Big tease from the UKMO, 144 almost a  :yahoo: chart. Saw somewhere that Ian did say MetOffice were monitoring the chance of a possible colder northerly next weekend...

Yes we can see why now. Not as boring an outlook as some may think maybe.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I'm worried about milder air toppling around the high to the NW, much better having the high over us with cold trapped at the surface.

I'm not so sure, Eugene: if we don't get the risk of  brief mild incursion, we're less likely to get any following Arctic blast??

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

The UKMO is an interesting run - even at day 4, it's interesting.  Wonder how cold that easterly across the South would be by then?

 

UW96-21.GIF?02-17

Edited by mulzy
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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

The UKMO is an interesting run - even at day 4, it's interesting.  Wonder how cold that easterly across the South would be by then?

 

UW96-21.GIF?02-17

The cold pool just advecting SW along southern England, would think not much above freezing .

C

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Posted
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL

Nice end to the GFS 12z, with two reloads of the pattern. Two troughs drop down to our east again into Europe..... :whistling:

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