Southeast England & East Anglia - Weather Chat >> 1st Feb Onwards

[craigore]

Just recapping any confusion on my post -

The weather ( forecast & analogues ) even excluding the OPI - suggested that the 'background' signal of weak el nino, the east qbo & continued development of the ice anomaly over the northern part of russia + the november stratospheric temp anomaly over russia ALL pointed to a cold blocked winter

The reality though is the slab of vortex hasnt budged. There has been zero blocking, just very transient mid level blocks. So whilst the background always suggested otherwise the only link we ever needed to see was the AO data, if thats trending more than +1 positive forget full blown winter in the UK, this is especially aparent for the SE -

We are not like the north where they have some decent elevation, our hills are stuck around 100m at best (apart from one or 2 higher spots ) & so we need deep cold to see any snow.

Deep cold for us only comes from the east or a very pure polar flow, of which neither have arrived this winter - however perhaps we have a very brief window in the next 3-4 days.

In terms of Tamara - if you think its personal appologies for that , however At some point we have to draw a line under the optimism & rubber stamp it with realism & under that umbrella all of the forums joint analysis at the top level ( excluding the met ) have failed to predict another poor winter.

Also we can blindly follow our own thoughts even underpin it with science however if that method isnt working & it hasnt since december then the same method will continue to fail for the rest if the winter as im afraid there are more influential factors that are overiding any potential 'cold' signal-

Never mind - its only weather.

I think my times of posting here for winter 14/15 are dwindling - interest is now low & perhaps due to current location @ greenhithe which @3m ASL is sh*te for snow

We will barely scrape a frost as I am probably 200m from the thames.

Fingers crossed for this snow window in the week , we have 5 -6 weeks availabilty left so still some room for snow to come.

Lets hope for a dramatic model reversal a la 2010 in the next few days .....

Regards all

S

I feel your pain like so many others especially when we have had our hopes dashed on so many occasions these last few weeks, charts that in F1 have looked great and at times backed by the  gods that apparently are in the know, but I for 1 feel very disillusioned about this winter and the 1 before , and will now take these false dawns wth a pinch of salt until I see a raging Easterly on my doorstep wth  - 16c uppers... which is about 1 in every 10 years ,lets be honest..

I am 42 yrs old and don't get me wrong we get plenty of different avenues wth snow events (a lot of them marginal ) , but a true bitter easterly is a rarity that can pop up at a moments notice and should never be taken for granted  , as it could be a long, long time before you get to experience another...

 

I like Steve am now losing interest wth this winter and yes I know its only the 2nd of Feb but if we get stuck wth a U.K high for a week which sinks allowing another week of westerly's to follow then we will fast be running out of time wth the sun growing stronger each day..

 

Still hoping something pops up ..

 

Craigore.

[craigore]

Barely a frost to scrape off the car.

That's because you have dry air wth low due points , don't expect white hoar in these conditions..

Edited February 2, 2015 by craigore

[paget]

Good morning,

I just wondered if anyone can explain what the Dew point is in Really simple terms, I've looked it up but don't really understand

I am very interested but very novice at all this!

Thanks

[2810lollypop]

Long forecast

 

Hope it happens, heavy snow for that long should hopefully settle. -1.1 c at the moment, my record since being on net weather is -2. something or other, wonder if i'll beat it. :cold:

lol its now changed to sleet pffffffft ! - 3 here right now according to wunderground brrrr

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Wednesday snow showers, some heavy, producing slight accumulations. Thursday snow showers become lighter and more scattered, leaving Friday with sunny spells and isolated snow showers. Overnight frosts, locally severe. Windy.

 

 

Light snow forcast for early hours here... 

[alexisj9]

temp -1.7, sun is shining so will warm up quickly, nice crisp winters morning, light frost on the grass but not on cars and ground, a low dp of -4.4. Grass carries it's own moisture, which accounts for the light frost I think.

[knocker]

Snow showers today?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Snow showers today?

 

 

Not impossible but won't be anything to mention really.. 

[mickeyb44]

-1c dp -6

Very light frost on grass.

[Hotspur62]

Temp continued to drop  till 7.30 this morning when we reached -3.7(second lowest of the winter).Quite hard frost tbh and 12th frost of winter.

 

Just been reading last few pages and yes Steve Murr, I share your frustration this winter although for me personally has been so much better in terms of nice frosts and generally colder temps. Lets be honest last winter was so mild, wet and generally miserable(4 frosts all winter here!!).I don't think it helps that we in the SE have now endured a second snowless winter(still hope for this winter in next 6 weeks  ) so that makes things even more annoying. On top of that we previousily had a spell of 3 or 4 good snowy winters for us and maybe we got complacent that snow was the norm again for us when in reality you only have to look at the mid/late 90s and early 00s to appreciate that it isn't.

 

So Steve, please continue your great posts for the Winter months, your knowledge and insight is invaluable to this forum and the MOD thread and we all look forward to when the "Murr sausage" becomes reality.

 

I must also mention Tamara who has also been invaluable to this thread and MOD thread. I am a relative novice compared to others but am slowly getting there (I think lol)  in what to look for when viewing the Models although I will never reach the levels that you, Steve, Bluearmy, Nick S etc have.

 

Thanks again and lets hope that this winter does deliver just 1 cold SNOWY spell before mid March for the SE.I think we all deserve it  

[NO LONGER POSTING]

 

Looking like this morning people away from immediate coasts tonight and tomorrow early morning light snow showers/flurries are a risk anywhere... 

 

 

 

[Sparky68]

Spot on Tamara.

 

My forecasting method differs hugely from yours because mine is more instinctive rather than based on science. I have been wrong nearly every time this winter but I don't lose any sleep over it because I enjoy what I do.

 

I wont even begin to pretend i know anything about it , I simply login here , have a good read of this thread [ arguments and all   ] and hope for some snow.

 

My life is complicated enough without trying to workout what the weather has in for me as well!

[Big Dave]

That's because you have dry air wth low due points , don't expect white hoar in these conditions..

 

 

This is because the Dp are very low it just zaps out the moisture, cold here temp -2C and Dp -5C

 

Thanks both

[Neilsouth]

Useless forecasters! How can they can go from Snow Showers, possibly giving a covering to the odd Wintry Shower, rain sleet and snow in the space of  8 hours from one forecast to the next. Why do they bother seriously

[Kent Blizzard]

I know we have had the discussion before and we should take the app forecasts with a pinch of salt but it does amuse me when this happens...

Tuesday: Light Snow showing from 05:00am - 10:00am

Wednesday: Yellow Snow Warning showing but no snow symbols at all

HAHA

[Neilsouth]

BBC Weather says possible snow showers on Wednesday, something we are keeping an eye on.....hardly convincing though and the term just showers isnt encouraging  

 

They've changed it to the odd wintry shower now

[Kent Blizzard]

I think my times of posting here for winter 14/15 are dwindling - interest is now low & perhaps due to current location @ greenhithe which @3m ASL is sh*te for snow

We will barely scrape a frost as I am probably 200m from the thames.

Regards all

S

Keep the faith Steve, your information and view points are much appreciated by many.I just read back to your post yesterday regarding the angles for Thames Streamers and the regions affected...very interesting thanks

[Nick F]

Quick look at the charts for tomorrow:

 

06z GFS - 06z-12z, some precip across Kent/E Sussex but generally keeping it coastal:

 

 

00z ECMWF - some light snow moving SW by 06z, bit of a NE to SW streamer across the SE corner by 12z?

 

EC 06z Tues 3rd Feb

 

EC 12z Tues 3rd Feb

 

Euro 4 - most of our region seeing some snow moving SW by 06z, slightly different take than ECM and GFS by 12z - with snow up towards East Mids, Lincs, Cambs, Norfolk:

 

Edited February 2, 2015 by Nick F

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Quick look at the charts for tomorrow:

 

00z GFS - 06z-12z, some precip across Kent/E Sussex but generally keeping it coastal:

 

GFS_tues06z.pngGFS_tues12z.png

 

00z ECMWF - some light snow moving SW by 06z, bit of a NE to SW streamer across the SE corner by 12z?

 

EC 06z Tues 3rd Feb

EC_tues06z.JPG

 

EC 12z Tues 3rd Feb

EC_tues12z.JPG

 

Euro 4 - most of our region seeing some snow moving SW by 06z, slightly different take than ECM and GFS by 12z - with snow up towards East Mids, Lincs, Cambs, Norfolk:

 

Euro4_tues06z.gifEuro4_tues12z.gif

 

All 3 models showing something different... Guess what time it is guess?? NOWCAST   

[Nick F]

All 3 models showing something different... Guess what time it is guess?? NOWCAST   

 

CORRECT

 

06z UKMO (meso) generally cloudy with light snow showers/flurries drifting SW from midnight across SE England, E Anglia, S & E Mids, central S England and SE Wales - petering out Tuesday afternoon.

[Neilsouth]

Quick look at the charts for tomorrow:

 

 

 

Any updates for Tuesday Night - Thurs as that was supposed to be the concerns from the met office, although they do like throwing Wintry Showers into the mix

[NO LONGER POSTING]

CORRECT

 

06z UKMO (meso) generally cloudy with light snow showers/flurries drifting SW from midnight across SE England, E Anglia, S & E Mids, central S England and SE Wales - petering out Tuesday afternoon.

 

 

Edited February 2, 2015 by Surrey

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I just hope to god nothing appears on the radar before midnight as I feel it could be another long night for a few.. 

[Kentspur]

BBC London 94.9fm mentioned a max of 4c today minus3c overnight min with a few snow flurries later tonight and tomorrow

BUT South East local weather was a little more optimistic and used the term "snow flurries" for tonight. And the "possibility" of snow showers on Wednesday. They were "keeping a close eye on it"

[Nick F]

Any updates for Tuesday Night - Thurs as that was supposed to be the concerns from the met office, although they do like throwing Wintry Showers into the mix

 

06z GFS and 00z ECM keeping precip along eastern coasts Tuesday evening, overnight and through Wednesday.

 

UKMO (meso) doesn't go out that far (only to t+36) ... still waiting for Euro4 to update for the 06z run.

 

Be interesting to see if the MetO revise their Weds snow warning for eastern Britain.