Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/03/15 onwards

[Greeny]

I'm not exactly sure what the "TT index" is, to be honest. Could someone explain?

 

It should explain it in the link I posted thats where I learnt of it, I've never been that convinced of its accuracy when I've checked this chart from time to time but there are a few factors which are explained that stops its intention coming to fruition.

Edited April 11, 2015 by Greenday

[Thunderbolt_]

It should explain it in the link I posted thats where I learnt of it, I've never been that convinced of its accuracy when I've checked this chart from time to time but there are a few factors which are explained that stops its intention coming to fruition.

 

Ok thanks, Greenday.

[Greeny]

Ok thanks, Greenday.

 

No probs and oh and note 4a, CAPE and shear would need to be cross checked.

[StormChaseUK]

2 areas to note, the first a weak cell has popped up over us here in Norwich, cant be cause of the fronts as they haven't arrived yet so probably sea breeze convergence.

And a definite convergence in the channel forcing the potential on the coast of France. Winds are travelling up towards the UK

I am stationed at St Malo, NW France currently, and we had a mid level shower around 6pm yesterday, must have turned active further NE.

 

Weather has been very warm and summer like the last few days, with temps around 23-24C

 

Will keep you guys posted of any developments over the coming week. 

 

https://twitter.com/stormchaseuk

https://www.facebook.com/pages/StormChaseUK/130280250429958?fref=ts

[Thunderbolt_]

I was just having a look at some of their weather stories and according to the Express, there is a thunderstorm in London right now. Let's have a look at the radar shall we..?

 

 

Yep... no thunderstorm there, nor is there any sign that one has passed through recently. Typical Express!

Edited April 11, 2015 by Thunderbolt_

[Greeny]

Now that is looking wonderfully colourful for Tuesday and Wednesday mmm

 

[Greeny]

A cell in Scotland has become more electrically active in the last half an hour.

[Mokidugway]

Single rumble of thunder from cell moving through South cumbria now ..

[Raidan]

Cape charts not looking as good for the coming week Wednesday looked good but not so much now.

[sunnijim]

John Hammond on the countryfile week ahead calling for thunderstorms ( yes storms,not thundery showers or heavy showers with rumbles of thunder ;-) ) On Wednesday.The potential looks from Tuesday night into Wednesday night. 25C predicted for the capital too,perhaps we could even squeeze a humid couple of degrees higher.

Edited April 12, 2015 by sunnijim

[Mapantz]

I'd put my money on Birmingham being in the action. 

[Raidan]

Have had a look at a few forecasts and none of them say anything about storms this week.will just have to keep a eye on things and hope something of interest comes up.

[Supacell]

The charts and forecasts are still going for somewhere in middle to southern England possibly seeing a storm on Wednesday. BBC are hinting at isolated thunderstorms on Wednesday, GFS holding off the risk until much later in the day. Wednesday is also now in the range of the lightning wizard charts. Currently I am seeing it remaining mostly dry for most through Wednesday but with some well scattered thunderstorms possible, these will have the ability of producing some decent lightning and possibly hail although severe weather very unlikely. I would be looking at wind convergence as a possible focal point. However, it's just a "fingers crossed wishful thinking" thing for me at present.

[Nick F]

Difficult to forecast risk of storms on Wednesday this far off. Obviously GFS is showing some decent CAPE across southern England, though we do have a ridge building in from the south towards Thursday, so this may limit any convective potential towards these areas with the best CAPE.

 

So storms maybe isolated and triggered by a combination of rising temperatures and wind convergence (00z shows CZ from Severn Estuary NE towards Norfolk) rather than the cold front - which will still be up over Scotland well away from the instability in the warm/moist air.

 

 

 

00z ECMWF shows a band of precip. band from the N Midlands across to Lincs/Wash ahead of the cold front rain band further north, which I can only assume is a convective band along a convergence zone - so the model may have the CAPE axis and convergence a little further north than GFS:

 

 

So all-in-all, an isolated risk of storms Wednesday as it stands atm, most likely areas seeing them West Country across Midlands to Lincs and E Anglia - where convergence most likely.

Edited April 13, 2015 by Nick F

[Mokidugway]

Lol,Nick it's the usual suspects !!..

[Dami]

Lol,Nick it's the usual suspects !!..

Doubt it'll be Bedford then!

[Nick L]

This morning's ECM had a line of storms over Lincolnshire (surprise surprise!) and parts of the East Mids on Wednesday afternoon.

 

Unfortunately I don't have access to things like CAPE etc.

Edited April 13, 2015 by Nick L

[cheese]

Doubt it'll be Bedford then!

Won't be here for another 5 years I suspect. We got our once-a-decade storm last year.

Edited April 13, 2015 by cheese

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I got weds afternoon off for chasing duties (or at least hopeful radar-watching!). Just wondering where the best locations might be to sit and wait

[Supacell]

Latest charts from GFS have removed any storm risk and no further mention on BBC or Met Office. Still time for a change again of course.

[Nick L]

Latest charts from GFS have removed any storm risk and no further mention on BBC or Met Office. Still time for a change again of course.

 

So has latest ECM pretty much.

[timeless]

been looking at the storm forecasts (specifically here http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2015-04-15 ) and its suggesting low probabilty for hereford tomorrow, meteox forecats seem to be suggesting nothing and as l said, here seems to show possibilities furher south, its kinda confusing. even more so considering lve seen the words "settled" within the UKMO forcasts with no mention at all at possible storms in the west midlands regional forecats.

 

ld prefer settled and cool over anything else, not a fan of thunderstorms or summer :/

[Supacell]

The latest charts indicate a very slight chance of an isolated storm developing tomorrow evening somewhere around CS England (maybe to the W of London) and heading ENE to the north of London and into EA in the first part of the night. However, this is a very isolated risk and most places, if not all places, to the south of the Midlands look to stay dry. Further north it is a case of a weakening cold front moving south but this does not look to bring any storm risk with it, just cloud and a few spots of rain. 

 

Certainly not looking as good as it did this time yesterday and before, but maybe a touch better than it looked yesterday evening. However, for the Midlands south away from any S or W facing coasts it could still get very warm with temperatures into the 70's Fahrenheit. 

[A.J]

overnight NMM run is interesting.....SBCAPE values of well over 1000j/kg and high lifted indices for the west country coinciding with an eroding cap......nice winf convergence across the west country towards the home counties could lead to a few decent thunderstorms along these areas.....further north across the south midlands & further south across southern most counties, capping is much stronger so less chance there........this quick summary is based on the 00z NMM hi-res model and differs considerably from the corresponding GFS run.....06z NMM due out soon though so might be all change yet!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Would Reading be a good bet for possible storms or initiation?

It's only about 50mins from me and good access in all directions if things kick off nearby.

I know it's only an isolated chance but I quite like the gamble, and the weather will be nice anyway

Edited April 14, 2015 by Flash bang flash bang etc