Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

[Mokidugway]

Yuk , perhaps time to book a flight out for Easter ....

[knocker]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.gif

 

NE winds + those upper's = cloud machine.

 

Praying for a miracle along the lines of JMA.

 

But the ens mean anomaly has the HP to the south west, the GEFS even more so so by no means a done deal at this stage.

Edited March 27, 2015 by knocker

[conor123]

Still a big stand off this morning GFS vs ECM, GFS now moved towards a gorgeous Bank Hol weekend while ECM carries on the same tune.

[mushymanrob]

Are there any meaningful signals yet as to what summer could hold? (And I stress "could"!)

 

I've read a few things about the type of summer that often follows a type of spring, the number of bad/good summers there are in a row, etc... but I'm not convinced those are meaningful indicators because they seem to cancel each other out depending on the evidence you use.

 

indeed its nonsense... a certain 'type' of spring does not lead to a certain type of summer. weve had mild springs, like 76, followed by hot summers.... weve had cold wet springs, like 83 followed by hot summers.. and several recent springs have been superb followed by washout summers.

so no... theres no correlation between spring and summer weather.

[coldcomfort]

What will spring/summer be like?  I don't think it's remotely clear what Easter will be like yet, but for my money probably nothing like as good as is currently being suggested, with thicker cloud and patchy rain proving very reluctant to give way despite rising pressure.

 

It's no real surprise that as we go into April we are starting to see the kind of synoptics most of us craved all winter either, that's exactly what tends to happen around these parts, with almost monotonous regularity it must be said..

Edited March 31, 2015 by coldcomfort

[stevofunnelcl]

Just watched a movie called 'Metal Tornado'

 

Laughed my socks off, even though i don't think it's meant to be a comedy, it's right up there alongside... Sharknado

 

http://putlocker.is/watch-metal-tornado-online-free-putlocker.html

[summer blizzard]

Be wary people. While we did get high pressure, we saw in early March how the models moved the high north west to give us dull weather.

Certainly looks like another dry month coming in the east though.

[ribster]

Still the promise of early spring warmth (bit late for that now), now being pushed backed to next week, which will be 8 weeks by then if it materialised. Even then temps will be around average, hardly exciting. Until then it looks rather cloudy over Easter weekend with temps somewhat depressed.

Edited April 3, 2015 by Paul

[mushymanrob]

im not so much of a 'warmy' after all... i much prefer spring freshness to autumnal mustiness even though temps are much higher in autumn.

[johnholmes]

indeed its nonsense... a certain 'type' of spring does not lead to a certain type of summer. weve had mild springs, like 76, followed by hot summers.... weve had cold wet springs, like 83 followed by hot summers.. and several recent springs have been superb followed by washout summers.

so no... theres no correlation between spring and summer weather.

 

Have a look on the Met O site for their model outlook for the summer, link below

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

Have a look on the Met O site for their model outlook for the summer, link below

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

 

their outlook for winter 2014-15 was reasonably accurate in broad terms

[mushymanrob]

Have a look on the Met O site for their model outlook for the summer, link below

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

 

cheers john.

[h2005__uk__]

cheers john.

Thanks for the link.

Just had a quick look and it seems there's a reasonable chance of average or above average temperatures for the summer, but a lesser chance of below average temperatures.

A long way off but it's nice to see.

[mushymanrob]

Thanks for the link.

Just had a quick look and it seems there's a reasonable chance of average or above average temperatures for the summer, but a lesser chance of below average temperatures.

A long way off but it's nice to see.

 

 

tbh id settle for dry... i love the heat but 18-22c is also very nice.

[IanR]

 there's a reasonable chance of average or above average temperatures for the summer, but a lesser chance of below average temperatures.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Que to washout summer with non discript temps    ,  although just 'average'  will do, warmer being preferable

im not so much of a 'warmy' after all... i much prefer spring freshness to autumnal mustiness even though temps are much higher in autumn.

traitor 

[knocker]

Ooh.

Chart weatherbell

 

[knocker]

I assume this has already been posted and I missed it. Not to worry.

 

ECMWF announced upgrade on May 14, 2015. Major changes include precipitation type. Tests have shown significant increases in forecast skill. Information Link

[Mokidugway]

Oh dear , I can feel a rash of foriegn holidays coming on !!!!!.

[mushymanrob]

Stunningly beautiful day today, my fav in my may time of the year. Tinglingly warm, birdsong filling the fresh spring air and butterflies dancing in the sun... Perfect.

[Milhouse]

Stunningly beautiful day today, my fav in my may time of the year. Tinglingly warm, birdsong filling the fresh spring air and butterflies dancing in the sun... Perfect.

 

Its good aint it.The low cloud cleared to leave a pleasant sunny afternoon here. The grass has had its first cut and its just generally been a day for getting outdoors and soaking up the spring sunshine.

[knocker]

Plus a field of Dafs.

 

[cheese]

Why are there so many weirdos on here eagerly awaiting a breakdown of the current lovely weather? Sorry to say, but there ain't no snow on the way, not now, not ever (well, not until November at the earliest).

[Mokidugway]

Lol, lovely weather !!!!!!!!!

[cheese]

Well, away from the Cumbria. And parts of East Anglia.

Edited April 6, 2015 by cheese

[h2005__uk__]

Hopefully this predicted warm spell will properly come off, unlike the others recently! I know Scotland reached 20.7C on Monday but, like most of the UK, I'm still waiting to get near that (max I've had so far is 17.5C).

 

From my point of view, current forecast temps for Chelmsford on Friday are:

19C - WeatherPro, Metcheck BBC (TV) and ITV (TV)

17C - Metcheck, BBC (online) and EssexWeather (but they tweeted that 19/20C is possible somewhere in Essex).

 

Bit of variation so it'll be interesting to see how those forecast temps vary in the coming days and who gets it right.

Edited April 6, 2015 by h2005uk

[Mokidugway]

Indeed better to be away from cumbria ...