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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.


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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

Yes it certainly Isn't the same as July but all months are somewhat slightly different to the last etc. I isually expect it to be colder than warmer in March and the same for September aka warmer than colder More Often than not.

Besides at least in my area, I don't expect to really see much of any decay in September. Maybe the green not so lush on the trees but for here I don't expect leaves falling in September etc, especially early in the

Month. The sun still has some strength in it and can still burn.

Anyway at least near full summer like temperatures can still be achieved for another month or so yet as per the heatwave we had a few years ago at the end of the month.

Ever heard the old folk saying about March. That it comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb. Not that it usually does, but maybe when that saying first came into use March generally started cold and wintery and ended warm and springlike. Edited by WALSALL SNOW
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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Looks like the high pressure that's been so close to the south all through August, is now going to be so close out to the west lol - August's pattern turned 45 degrees clockwise, the result being cooler and most likely drier.

 

Let's see if the anticyclonic influence can last beyond the 10th - only seems to managed it in 2014, 2009 and 2007 of recent years.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

Looks like the high pressure that's been so close to the south all through August, is now going to be so close out to the west lol - August's pattern turned 45 degrees clockwise, the result being cooler and most likely drier.

 

Let's see if the anticyclonic influence can last beyond the 10th - only seems to managed it in 2014, 2009 and 2007 of recent years.

 

The last third of 2011 was high pressure dominated though.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

The last third of 2011 was high pressure dominated though.

The last 4 days were. High pressure wasn't far enough for most of the period to cut off the westerly flow. In fact the 20th/21st and 25th were both wet away from the southeast. The air was also unstable enough for some hefty downpours on the 26th before the warm European high exerted its influence from the 27th onwards.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Shocker washout b'day for me coming up, living here sucks, bbc and GFS giving washout and cold wind, 14C for Tuesday

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

It's looking like a pretty poor spell of weather to be honest - temperatures in the low teens, stratocumulus infills by 10:00 and showers. Not the best we've ever had for early September, if I'm honest.

 

It does look very poor tbh with pesky lows stuck in the North Sea. Not sure theres going to be much sunshine. The sooner the high topples over us the better.

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK

Dreadful wet, cool and overcast spell of late 'summer' weather recently and more rubbish on the way, if the charts are to believed. High pressure again stuck out to our west giving a week of cold cloudy northerlies and more rain in the East with some pretty strong winds here at times. Seriously, could that high sit just to our East for a week instead? Or is that impossible these days lol? Makes me laugh how the worst possible synoptics for the UK appear so easily and so often. Enough already!

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Dreadful wet, cool and overcast spell of late 'summer' weather recently and more rubbish on the way, if the charts are to believed. High pressure again stuck out to our west giving a week of cold cloudy northerlies and more rain in the East with some pretty strong winds here at times. Seriously, could that high sit just to our East for a week instead? Or is that impossible these days lol? Makes me laugh how the worst possible synoptics for the UK appear so easily and so often. Enough already!

 

And when the high did eventually set up position to the east of the UK during August it was too far east to deliver any heat. I seriously think we have been unluckly the way things have panned out this summer. Time to wipe the slate clean and come back next year.

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK

And when the high did eventually set up position to the east of the UK during August it was too far east to deliver any heat. I seriously think we have been unluckly the way things have panned out this summer. Time to wipe the slate clean and come back next year.

Yep, extremely unlucky. Incredibly frustrating summer again, missing out on most the continental heat, the storms, etc etc. Gets very boring to be honest! Especially living in the SE which normally joins in with any near continental heat (pre 2007 anyway). Hopefully 2016 will be much better for the whole UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL

It finally looks like the very hot mainland European summer is coming to an end. What a summer they have had. The models seem to have shown +20 or so 850s for about 3 months now, it must have been 30C in France and Germany since June!

 

I'm sure some of them are breathing a sigh of relief and maybe they can start to sleep now the cooler uppers flood down! The problem is now that if the new high does drift east, the warmth has already drained away so its not as good for the UK as it would have been a few weeks ago.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Well with September around the corner now, what do the models show......

GFS

gfs-0-144.png?12

 

UKMO

UW144-21.GIF?31-18

 

ECM

ECM1-144.GIF?31-0

 

GEM

gem-0-144.png?12

 

Typically right on cue, a UK high arriving around next weekend. At this point it is a pretty cool set up, but you wouldn't bet against a warm up during the second week of September.

Appropriate image below....

 

picard1.jpg

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

A new thread coming up for Autumn/Winter, please hold off posting for a moment.

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