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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.


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Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen
  • Location: Aberdeen

It's swings and roundabouts though. The south might enjoy more heat extremes in spring/summer, but the north generally gets more snow/ice events in the winter.

 

We have had no decent snow here since December 2010 whereas parts of the south had a week of lying snow in February 2012 and we got nothing. The Channel Islands got a pasting in March 2013 and we had snizzle coming out of slate grey skies. The last two winters have delivered nothing but the type of slop I'd expect living on the south coast.
 
This decade has been utter hell. Snowless winters and the most miserable summers in history. It used to be NW Highlands, the Western Isles and Northern Isles that missed out on heatwaves not the whole of Scotland and Northern England :wallbash:
 
This week really doesn't look good at all and perhaps will be the first time for, what seems like an eternity, that the weather improves in time for the weekend. Plenty time yet though for the high pressure to move into a much less favourable position or disappear completely.
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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

Am I the only one who is disappointed by the outlook? Very annoying that it might reach 25C in the SE but it will 'only' reach 17C here. This is the setup of nightmares, for us northerners, and accurately portrays hot spells in 2010 and 2012, amongst others. I will be so p*ssed if this turns out to be a frequent occurrence this summer.

Sometimes it feels like I'm living in another country, all this talk of warm temperatures this week in the UK.. not here I'm afraid, highest temperature Netweather 7 day forecast have is 12℃ tomorrow then downhill after that with thursday looking absolutely dreadful as far as temps are concerened..at least the sun will be shining..!!

post-5386-0-68224500-1428952386_thumb.pn

 

Saturday looks like a late January forecast.

post-5386-0-55280200-1428952633_thumb.pn

Edited by NL
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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

Well i dont think its unusuL to get high, much higher temps in the southeast then the north. The southeast IS warmer.

25c away from the southeast in mid april is highly unlikely imho.

Anyway, cest la vie, it is frustrating when other areas get better weather but theres nowt that can be done about it.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

The south east is warmer, but not THAT much warmer. The difference is only 2c at most on average. I doubt most people would notice the difference.

I didn't expect 25c here, but did expect around 21c which is what the models were going for before.. 20c in April is hardly unusual. Nothing I can do about it but I'm going to complain nonetheless.

And I'm still unhappy with the output. Cloudy and dry does not cut it for me, mild or otherwise. Summer can't come soon enough.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon

I'm so pleased the nicer weather has come along instead or the dull murkey weather...I'm just wandering about rainfall amounts for southern england but speaking from my perspective in Exeter which is in the southwest we really have not had that much rain this winter overall, does anyone else feel the same?  Has anyone got any graphs?

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

I'm so pleased the nicer weather has come along instead or the dull murkey weather...I'm just wandering about rainfall amounts for southern england but speaking from my perspective in Exeter which is in the southwest we really have not had that much rain this winter overall, does anyone else feel the same?  Has anyone got any graphs?

 

My location has had a slightly wetter than average start to the year with January (98.9mm), 24.2mm of which fell on the 12th; February (61.6mm), nearly all of which fell in the second half; and March (68.5mm), 18.1mm of which fell on the 13th. Based on my records I average 78mm in January, 48mm in February and 64mm in March, so each month has been above average but not drastically so. April, on the other hand, has been very dry so far here. I, too, would like to compare with other stats from across the region.

 

The models seem to paint a continuation of this dry spell so April could turn out very dry indeed despite a possible more unsettled ending. This month so far reminds me of a toned-down April 2003 which did indeed close on an unsettled note and went into a very unsettled May, as has been hinted by longer range forecasts. I'm interested to see when the next convective potential will pop up which could be under a slack northerly as has been shown a few times in FI. Meanwhile, another dry week to come. Enjoy!

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Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon

Damn, i hate that word 'benign' (yawn)

I know some people enjoy the warm sunny conditions.

The chance of storms could at least bring some excitement

I don't think the Uk has had much luck with storms in recent years.

 

I long for the good 'ol Spanish plume, with multiple waves of storms marching north, from the Bay of Biscay, and France

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

If this was Winter everyone would be moaning how boring the current pattern is.

Probably because in winter, the current pattern would not enable people to go outside and enjoy the pleasant warmth. Today is 13C, partly cloudy, with a buzz of life - butterflies, bees, birds. The trees are blooming, with many trees already fully green, and gardens bursting with life. Temperatures will rise over the next week, up to 20C possibly.

 

It's just a different feel entirely to winter. We are seeing life emerge, rather than die. 

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.
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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

We are seeing life emerge, rather than die.

Totally agree with that. Lovely weather to go out and about doing things etc......

...... But ruddy hell mate;

Pot

Kettle

Black

springs to mind. ;)

Edited by Polar Maritime
To remove deleted quote.
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Ok back to Model related banter/moans.. Nothing personal please 

 

Thanks, PM.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

If this was Winter everyone would be moaning how boring the current pattern is.

 

Is that what you think?

How about, if it is, otherwise my apologies for misreading your post, take a look at the very interesting, if you want cold, on the last 24-36 hours of synoptic charts and the output from the 3 main anomaly charts over a similar period. A really interesting model clash as to what we may have 9-10 days down the line?

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Some pretty ugly charts showing up in the long term. Time for change though.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Some pretty ugly charts showing up in the long term. Time for change though.

 

yeah, agree, tomorrow ugly as well, i have you on ignore from nov to feb, but not from apr to oct, hope the ugly charts with northerlies do not come off

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

yeah, agree, tomorrow ugly as well, i have you on ignore from nov to feb, but not from apr to oct, hope the ugly charts with northerlies do not come off

I do like a fresh Northerly right from the poles :cold:

Good air quality, no humidity, cool nights - if people like mild slumber in Winter why not vice versa?

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

Ugh, the outlook is dirge. How anyone can look forward to such atrocious weather is beyond me. Would have been okay in January but it's far  too late to be of any use now.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Ugh, the outlook is dirge. How anyone can look forward to such atrocious weather is beyond me. Would have been okay in January but it's far  too late to be of any use now.

I hope it sorts itself out for the May Bank holiday weekend as im going camping. Come on Azores high get your act together! :D

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Wow... not only are we under high pressure this week, but we have easterlies all the way across the Atlantic. That would be quite something if it was mid-winter.

 

attachicon.gifviewimage.pbx.png

 

It's just a shame we switch into miserable northerly rubbish later this week. Just what we need isn't it... cold rain and damaging night frosts (not). Hurry back Azores high!

Hopefully this will be a blip, surprised so many people like the sound of 10C and lots of rain. It wouldn't be the same story if we were in January.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

The model output is horrific for the end of April/start of May. It's not just the rain - I can deal with that: it's April - it's the cold source.

 

Ach well, there always summer.

 

*Checks Matt's post in Strat thread*  :doh:

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

looking like theres going to be a chilly/cold spell.... yep there will be good air quality and the sun will feel warm... oh well, it cant be sunny and warm all spring, on the plus side itll stop the molluscs chomping on my emerging lilies overnight!

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Horrific charts showing up. Completely unseasonal but to be expected at some point in spring as the polar vortex finally smashes to pieces sending cold air South. Things will re settle soon enough. There is no way these northerlies will prevail for long just like southerlies never do. I'm pretty sure decent summers have often had poor spells late spring/ during May.

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