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Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->


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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SUNDAY MARCH 8TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold front is moving SE over England and Wales, clearing the SE later and followed by a transient ridge and a new set of fronts crossing the UK from the West tomorrow.

 


 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry weather with some sunshine and just occasional rain. Temperatures will be close to average overall.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the flow across the North of the UK through the upcoming days before moving the axis further to the NW to Iceland next weekend. The flow then becomes much less defined as it remains well South over the Atlantic and linking to a weaker Southern arm for a time in Week 2 before edging back North over the UK..

 


 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows a rather changeable week to come as High pressure moves close to the South at times but with a series of troughs in the SW flow crossing too at times with occasional rain for many. Then High pressure builds strongly to the NE of the UK switching winds to a fresh to strong ESE flow developing with unsettled weather affecting the West of the UK in particular later before winds slowly veer back towards a more unsettled SW flow towards the end of the run with rain at times for all.

 


 


 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run makes rather less of the High pressure influence to the East in Week 2  though the set-up to get is to that point in the synoptics is the same as the operational. As a result of the lesser influence of the High pressure to the East and as a result Low pressure invades from the West long before the end of the period with rain at times and rather chilly conditions at times too.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The story from the GFS clusters this morning is a mixed one with a lot of members suggesting a West or NW flow around High pressure to the SW and low to the North or NE with rain at times while a somewhat lesser group suggest High pressure more influential close to the UK with resultant drier and fine weather.

 


 

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a changeable week of weather to come with some rain for all especially later as a depression moves across the UK late in the working week clearing up from the South over next weekend.

 


 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a complex synoptic pattern through the week with High pressure never far away from the South but marred by the inception of quite active troughs moving East across the UK on occasion with rain at times.

 


 

GEM GEM today shows a changeable pattern through the coming week with rain at times as successive troughs cross the UK from the West. High pressure strengthens to the East of the UK from next weekend with a ridge back towards Southern Britain leading to more settled conditions then with any rain then restricted to the NW in a SW flow still here.

 


 

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows High pressure developing over the UK at the end of the coming week with the changeable theme of earlier in the week replaced by fine conditions by next weekend. thereafter the High is shown to move East with a weakening ridge West to the UK maintaining fine conditions for many before fronts approach the West and NW at the end of the run.

 


 

ECM ECM this morning shows a similar pattern to the majority of output in it's changeable them over the coming working week. We then see pressure build strongly to the NE of the UK with winds switching Easterly over the weekend and start to the new week. These East winds could bring a lot of cloud and suppressed temperatures with a little rain in places as some instability in the flow is shown. 

 


 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean Chart supports the evolution of the operational well with High pressure over Europe extending a strong ridge back across the UK with the Jet stream blowing harmlessly away well to the North of the UK.

 


 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is a continuing trend to rise pressure to the NE of the UK over the second half of the output this morning.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.6 pts followed by UKM at 97.2 pts and GFS at 96.4. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 90.7 pts over UKMO at 88.8 pts and GFS at 87.2. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 67.5 pts over GFS's 60.6 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 50.1 pts over GFS at 43.4. 

 


 


 


 


 

 

MY THOUGHTS The pattern of weather over the next few weeks remains fairly benign meteorologically with High pressure in a couple of different guises remaining influential across the UK. Despite this it doesn't mean that the weather will be dry or sunny with troughs of Low pressure over this coming week still a thorn in the side for the UK as they cross East delivering occasional rain at times and maintaining a lot of cloud and holding temperatures to normal values for mid March. Then after this week High pressure transfers from a position close to the South to a position NE of the UK probably extending a ridge back West over at least the South of the UK and possibly further North as well. This will have the effect of bringing a lot of dry if rather cloudy skies across from the East and a chill in the air too for many. Also as this pattern develops pressure will be encouraged to fall over the Atlantic with the ever increasing risk that Atlantic troughs will brush up against the blocking ridge and High pressure and threaten some rain towards the West later possibly extending further east with tome as the block weakens. However, all this remains speculative at best at such a range and it could be that High pressure holds on for longer with dry or fairly dry conditions persisting for most. There is little sign of anything particularly noteworthy weather wise in this morning's output with dry weather outweighing the short wetter spells of this week and again late in the period. It looks unlikely that it will get particularly mild or cold though it will feel chilly under any persistent cloud and any breeze from the East.   

 

Issued at 09:00 Sunday March 8th 2015

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Yesterday GFS, UKMO and GEM all went for pressure to rise on the 13th whilst ECM delayed it till the 14th, this morning UKMO has moved towards ECM by delaying the proposed rise in pressure till the 14th

 

The 13th has low pressure over the UK with ECM showing it to be deeper than UKMO

 

Rukm1201.gifRecm1201.gif

 

Then next Saturday sees pressure rising

 

Rukm1441.gifRecm1441.gif

 

The ECM ens then shows the high dominating from next Saturday to the end of its run and beyond with any low pressure systems going well north of the UK

 

Reem1441.gifReem1921.gifReem2401.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

The N/W Highlands are in for a Stormy Monday evening.

 

ukwind.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Is it?

Did I ever say the highs longevity was assured? I merely said blocking scandinavian highs of the past are usually stubborn to shift, this one seems to not be based on this run.

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

i dont pretend to be very knowlegable, in fact, im distingtly lightweight compared to many on here with little depth of knowlege that others posess.

the models all point to some sort of eastern block and high pressure domination.

yesterday i mentioned a second phantom atlantic low that seemingly appeared out of nowhere for weds/thurs. and now the latest fax suggests another for friday?

 

post-2797-0-06031400-1425806886_thumb.gi

originally high pressure was supposed to re-establish itself after todays cold front... then that idea  was dropped as a shortwave developed (mon/tues), but had high pressure building behind that and going on to dominate.

 yesterday morning there was another (second) low  for wednesday/thursday  now expected to cross us as well, relegating tuedays high to a transitory ridge. but yesterday a dominant high pressure was supposed to build in after that one (thursday onwards), and link with high to our east.

this morning theres a third system lining up for friday before the ever pushed back decisive high builds over us (now pushed back even further to the weekend)

dont know what im missing here, but after what was supposed to be a high pressure dominated week ahead, we are looking at a series of low pressure systems bringing an unsettled (but average) week.

with all this inaccuracy in the short term, how can the models possibly get a decent handle on what is fi high pressure blocking to our east? it appears to me that there could well be blocking to our east, but without one of these mid system ridges building, might well fail to bring any settled dry warm or cold easterly sourced weather.

 

Edited by mushymanrob
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Karl, Andy was pointing out that whilst the modelling over a week ago showed a strong block developing, we have seen depressions appear once we got to the T144/T168 timeframe which will mean the predicted settled spell being anything but, the further nw you are.

His question being 'will the same happen again' , given that we also saw a feb settled spell go the way of the pear. IMO, the feb spell didn't happen at all, this one is a 'reasonable' settled period, especially so the further se you are and I believe the one to follow will be even stronger than this one.

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015030800/gfs-0-138.png?0

 

The GFS 0Z output illustrates the scenario. We need the large Atlantic storm to slow and deepen in order to inflate the HP ahead of it. If the pattern is too mobile, the jet squashes the HP back (as will happen midweek). Only when the upstream feature slows do we have a window of opportunity for the HP to build strongly NE through the British Isles and into Scandinavia.

 

In a strong jet-dominated pattern there's never enough time for that to happen before the next storm flattens everything.

 

Hence the fluidity around the timing which is dependent on the storm exiting the US and then slowing south of Greenland. If we're talking about a 12-24 hour delay I wouldn't be surprised.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Karl, Andy was pointing out that whilst the modelling over a week ago showed a strong block developing, we have seen depressions appear once we got to the T144/T168 timeframe which will mean the predicted settled spell being anything but, the further nw you are.

His question being 'will the same happen again' , given that we also saw a feb settled spell go the way of the pear. IMO, the feb spell didn't happen at all, this one is a 'reasonable' settled period, especially so the further se you are and I believe the one to follow will be even stronger than this one.

Well I'm looking at things as they stand now, we all know there has been a delay to the fine spell and some of the recent output has shown a prolonged anticyclonic outlook lasting into late March. I just call it as I see it without too much guess work.

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015030806/gfsnh-0-120.png?6

 

That's the kind of chart that explains why the AO is through the roof.

 

Deep LP around the Pole but strong HP at quite high latitudes. The evolution though is similar to the 0Z at this time.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

dont know what im missing here, but after what was supposed to be a high pressure dominated week ahead, we are looking at a series of low pressure systems bringing an unsettled (but average) week.

 

 

Hi. This week has always been zonal but with disagreement as to the placement of the jet. The further north the better for the south. The last few days have indeed been dry and sunny with temps nicely above average (16.2c yesterday). The next 4-5 days will see the jet slightly further south, so LP systems will hit Scotland and the associated fronts/troughs will push east. Though how much rain there will be in the SE is questionable. Highs in the next 5 days should be 11c or above down here though more cloudy than the last few days. Pressure will remain above 1020hpa  for the next 10 days (average 1027hpa next seven days), so that to me is easily more HP than LP. Even if we had a UK HP it would not preclude it being a cloudy high so although sun may be limited this week, for the south it is a very settled period with maybe a few hours of drizzle/rain thrown in the mix.

 

From the weekend at least a few days (3-5 days) of high pressure is guaranteed and after that many options, but a slow fall in the general pressure for the south is very likely.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

6z shows no sign of moderating the storm due to batter Scotland later tomorrow, there is quite a large zone with gusts widely above 70 mph with some gusts as high as 85-90 mph which is very severe. It reminds me of earlier stormy spells during the winter. The good news is by the end of the week it looks much more benign.

post-4783-0-53768500-1425810405_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-11192200-1425810423_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I was really looking forward to this anticyclonic spell despite the lengthening delays but now I'm not as it looks like there will be a lot of cloud and even some light rain and drizzle associated with it and according to the latest expert view, the north will continue to to be at risk from longer outbreaks of rain but at least it won't be as windy as the week ahead and there will be some clear and sunny spells at times but it's not at all what I was hoping for or expecting when the models first picked up the settled signal.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

I was really looking forward to this anticyclonic spell despite the lengthening delays but now I'm not as it looks like there will be a lot of cloud and even some light rain and drizzle associated with it and according to the latest expert view, the north will continue to to be at risk from longer outbreaks of rain but at least it won't be as windy as the week ahead and there will be some clear and sunny spells at times but it's not at all what I was hoping for or expecting when the models first picked up the settled signal.

 

Here's the cloud cover charts Karl with the ever strengthening sunshine it could be brighter than suggested cloud cover is notoriously hard to forecast

 

At the start it looks relatively bright

 

06_129_ukcloud.png?cb=49606_153_ukcloud.png?cb=496

 

It then turns much more cloudy for Mothering Sunday away from northern Scotland and perhaps Ireland

 

06_177_ukcloud.png?cb=496

 

The cloud then persists through-out the Monday

 

06_201_ukcloud.png?cb=496

 

But by the Tuesday and Wednesday it looks more broken allowing some sunshine to break through

 

06_225_ukcloud.png?cb=49606_252_ukcloud.png?cb=496

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Posted
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL

Well whether its going to be dry or wet the models still show a cool down from the east at present time. ECM 0z and latest GFS 6z both show cold 850s incoming. The ECM has been showing this for a while now. The majority of the ECM run this morning has the UK under sub zero uppers, so average temps at best and it will feel cold if theres a decent easterly breeze into W/C 16/03:

 

ECU0-240.GIF?08-12    186-7UK.GIF?08-6

 

 

Nothing springlike showing anyway, and as you can see from the GEFS for South Yorkshire below, the run goes with around 5c max for me for a good week later on reflecting the easterly threat. Its towards the bottom yes, but shows what could happen. Also the night time temps look fairly low throughout, getting down to 0c, so still frost risk for those gardeners out there:

 

post-19114-0-69101100-1425818048_thumb.j

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

I just wish the strengthening sun brought better temperatures than this.

To me it looks as though away from South East England it is going to be a pretty unremarkable spell of weather over the next two weeks.

A few sunny days yes but lots of cloud/drizzle around for the rest of us with temperatures around average. (Again South East England seeing some warm days)

I would sell my gran for a warm and sunny week just now!

Hopefully April delivers some Spring warmth for us all.

Here's the cloud cover charts Karl with the ever strengthening sunshine it could be brighter than suggested cloud cover is notoriously hard to forecast

 

At the start it looks relatively bright

 

06_129_ukcloud.png?cb=49606_153_ukcloud.png?cb=496

 

It then turns much more cloudy for Mothering Sunday away from northern Scotland and perhaps Ireland

 

06_177_ukcloud.png?cb=496

 

The cloud then persists through-out the Monday

 

06_201_ukcloud.png?cb=496

 

But by the Tuesday and Wednesday it looks more broken allowing some sunshine to break through

 

06_225_ukcloud.png?cb=49606_252_ukcloud.png?cb=496

post-9331-0-99376400-1425817999_thumb.jp

post-9331-0-79236200-1425818013_thumb.jp

post-9331-0-41162000-1425818024_thumb.jp

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Thanks Gavin lets hope the sun will punch some big holes in the cloudsheet when the high eventually gets here. :-)

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Well whether its going to be dry or wet the models still show a cool down from the east at present time. ECM 0z and latest GFS 6z both show cold 850s incoming. The ECM has been showing this for a while now. The majority of the ECM run this morning has the UK under sub zero uppers, so average temps at best and it will feel cold if theres a decent easterly breeze into W/C 16/03:

 

   

 

 

Nothing springlike showing anyway, and as you can see from the GEFS for South Yorkshire below, the run goes with around 5c max for me for a good week later on reflecting the easterly threat. Its towards the bottom yes, but shows what could happen. Also the night time temps look fairly low throughout, getting down to 0c, so still frost risk for those gardeners out there:

 

attachicon.gif2msy.jpg

 

Thats assuming the ECM op is correct and at the moment at D5 it only has about 20% cluster support and that translates to the third cluster. The top cluster has about 35% support and has the D5 storm further north, similar to the GFShttp://old.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!120!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2015030800!!/

 

That makes anything after D5 on the ECM op very uncertain. By D10 the ECM op is close to the coldest solution, 7c below the mildest:

 

post-14819-0-15171500-1425818835_thumb.g

 

Run after run the ECM op has little support from its mean so taking those D10 charts as Gospel even with their consistency is probably going to lead us up the garden path again:

 

ECM op: post-14819-0-03481900-1425818936_thumb.g  Mean anomaly: post-14819-0-59467500-1425818949_thumb.g

 

The 06z GFS op also has again little support from its mean, as it continues to struggle with modelling fluid patterns since it's upgrade. The GEFS clusters till D12 suggest UK HP domination:

 

post-14819-0-74883100-1425819176_thumb.p

 

Good cross model support for Scandi High via MJO signal: 

 

  MJVentrice

Wohh mamma. MJO amplitude being forecast off the charts. >4 sigma by GEFS mean in med-range. Probably overdone thou. http://t.co/6LRsvDH7Gf

08/03/2015 12:57

 

Edited by IDO
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Posted
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL

 

Thats assuming the ECM op is correct and at the moment at D5 it only has about 20% cluster support and that translates to the third cluster. The top cluster has about 35% support and has the D5 storm further north, similar to the GFShttp://old.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!120!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2015030800!!/

 

That makes anything after D5 on the ECM op very uncertain. By D10 the ECM op is close to the coldest solution, 7c below the mildest:

 

Yes IDO, I agree its not certain, most likely be milder than my post suggests, but thought it was worth a mention.

 

I noted that the 6z run was towards the lower end. Its true the ECM has been poor towards the end of its runs throughout the winter period to be honest. It will be interesting to see whether it improves over spring and summer. Could it have been the type of synoptics this winter thats caused all hell to break loose in the output? I dont know.

 

I always go back to the argument for operational resolution vs ensembles lower resolution. As I said in my post, the ECM has been consistent with showing cooler air incoming from the east run after run now for a good few days. Its not giving up and must be picking up on some strong signal.

Then as you have posted the ensembles and the means over the past few days the picture looks milder and more high pressure dominated. Is the ECM run picking things up better and the ensembles will trend cooler or will it be the other way around. There seems to be situations from my few years on here now that sometimes the ops win and sometimes the ensembles do. Hard to tell which though this time for me, as im no expert.

 

As said, good agreement for a scandi high, so presumably anything from the east will lead to a cool down of sorts :)

Edited by Winter Cold
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Yes IDO, I agree its not certain, most likely be milder than my post suggests, but thought it was worth a mention.

 

I noted that the 6z run was towards the lower end. Its true the ECM has been poor towards the end of its runs throughout the winter period to be honest. It will be interesting to see whether it improves over spring and summer. Could it have been the type of synoptics this winter thats caused all hell to break loose in the output? I dont know.

 

I always go back to the argument for operational resolution vs ensembles lower resolution. As I said in my post, the ECM has been consistent with showing cooler air incoming from the east run after run now for a good few days. Its not giving up and must be picking up on some strong signal.

Then as you have posted the ensembles and the means over the past few days the picture looks milder and more high pressure dominated. Is the ECM run picking things up better and the ensembles will trend cooler or will it be the other way around. There seems to be situations from my few years on here now that sometimes the ops win and sometimes the ensembles do. Hard to tell which though this time for me, as im no expert.

 

As said, good agreement for a scandi high, so presumably anything from the east will lead to a cool down of sorts :)

The models are keen on sending a cold pool around the southern flank of the high towards the UK, whether or not it reaches the UK and how cold it will be is where the uncertainty will be. Anyone hoping for cold and snow should pretty much forget as this type of set up will only bring grey skies. In the end if the ECM verified then pretty much no one would be happy about it (grey skies and 6-8C doesn't really cut it in any season).

Overall the pattern looks set for a extensive spell of blocking to our north east (starting around Saturday), beyond this the signals are to keep this in place for quite some time.

gens-21-1-144.png

gens-21-1-240.png

Perhaps some hints of retrogression possible, though how far west the high gets is up for debate. Could it get to the Atlantic sector or Greenland? Or will it stop over the UK and keep the settled conditions going.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Good agreement between GFS and UKMO for the low to get squeezed out during Friday whilst some rain is still possible at first it will become drier as the day progresses

 

UW120-21.GIF?08-17gfs-0-120.png?12gfs-2-120.png?12

 

Into Saturday and the high takes hold whilst some mist and fog is possible early on it should soon burn away allowing some lengthy spells of pleasant sunshine though cold overnight where skies are clear

 

UW144-21.GIF?08-17gfs-0-144.png?12

 

Skipping along to day 10 the difference between GFS and GEM is stark

 

gfs-0-240.png?12gem-0-240.png?12

 

Lets see what ECM suggests longer term later on but in the medium range it looks like settling down after a stormy start to the working week

 

EDIT

 

No support from GFS ens for the Op at day 10

 

ENS

 

gens-21-1-240.png?12

 

Op

 

gfs-0-240.png?12

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL

Well the GFS 12z FI is a horror show tonight for settled and springlike weather and the ECM 12z is also looking distinctly green tonight. Not surprised there are few comments. We'll have to see where they sit in the ensembles obviously but this isnt what most want to see I suspect -

 

Few frames from GFS:

 

gfs-0-240.png?12   gfs-0-324.png?12   gfs-0-384.png?12

 

 

 

Few frames from the ECM:

 

ECM1-192.GIF?08-0   ECM1-216.GIF?08-0  

 

 

:oops:

Edited by Winter Cold
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Well the GFS 12z FI is a horror show tonight for settled and springlike weather and the ECM 12z is also looking distinctly green tonight. Not surprised there are few comments. We'll have to see where they sit in the ensembles obviously but this isnt waht most want to see I suspect -

 

Few frames from GFS:

 

gfs-0-240.png?12   gfs-0-324.png?12   gfs-0-384.png?12

 

 

 

Few frames from the ECM:

 

ECM1-192.GIF?08-0   ECM1-216.GIF?08-0  

 

 

:oops:

 

As I posted above GFS Op isn't supported by its ensemble which has a lot of settled weather well into FI

 

gens-21-1-120.png?12gens-21-1-168.png?12gens-21-1-216.png?12gens-21-1-288.pnggens-21-1-336.png?12

 

The ECM ens this morning also had a lot of settled weather from the end of the coming week whether the 12z ECM ens does remains to be seen

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

not sure where the despondancy comes from re the 12z runs. looks very springlike to me. the fronts late in the week will be squeezed out by high SLP and thereafter, surface pressure remains high. likely to be on the chilly side but i believe that nothing else has been predicted.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Ecm 12z in FI looks more like winter than spring to me with 528 dam thicknesses, so we spring back into winter on ecm tonight. :-)

post-4783-0-04818000-1425844431_thumb.pn

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  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
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