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Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->


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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

^^^ Continuing to ignore the GFS op whilst it throws out extreme runs. It is an outlier for precipitation in FI, the coldest run amongst its ensembles as early as D5 and also a pressure outlier for its last 5 days. It is struggling badly and best avoided:

 

post-14819-0-93854000-1425842810_thumb.g  post-14819-0-21324500-1425842811_thumb.g

 

GEM looks the sanest and is relatively dry from D5-10: post-14819-0-42740500-1425842891_thumb.p

 

The GFS op has little support amongst its members and the D10 mean maintains the general settled theme it has been churning out for days:

 

post-14819-0-36394400-1425843005_thumb.p

 

After that, the trend to slowly lower UK heights continues, but little sign amongst the members for a consistent way forward.

 

The front that crossed the UK today missed the SE, and that could be the story for the rest of the week. It was dry all day reaching 12.1c and it is quite possible that the front tomorrow will also fade as it moves towards the south/SE. HIRLAM suggests that; drizzle at worst (snow Scottish hills):

 

post-14819-0-95837300-1425843473_thumb.g

 

Wednesday's also looks like being north of Watford Gap for rain according to ECM & GFSpost-14819-0-27063200-1425843605_thumb.p

 

ECM also suggesting Thursday/Friday's front will fracture as it crosses east, though GFS suggests otherwise: post-14819-0-30436800-1425843682_thumb.p

 

So possibly an extended period of two weeks dry weather for the SE if ECM is correct though I suspect the best of the warm weather has now passed through, but 12-13c still possible Tuesday-Friday. High pressure looks in charge till at least Wednesday week but temps closer to average in the latter 5 day period.

Edited by IDO
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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

 

The trend of the AO to move sharply negative continues though the odd member holds it just positive. We are almost at the peak of the AO cycle

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index.html

 

Remarkably positive over this weekend.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015030812/gens-17-1-384.png

 

Just a bit of fun though not entirely without support - three or four other members posit a northerly or north-easterly in the timeframe.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

I think the problem currently regarding any longer term outlook is whether you can trust the outputs. On the face of it high pressure in charge looks likely but the MJO going by the forecasts is going to strengthen significantly with the GEFS off the page in terms of amplitude in phase 7. Theres across the board support for high amplitude phase 7 and then several going into phase 8.

 

Given this is still over a week away can we trust the NWP to have factored this in accurately especially with the associated time lag  to also take into account.

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

ECM ens similar to previous runs shows pressure remaining high over the UK from Friday onwards with country file suggesting the west will be best sunshine wise and the high could be in for a longer stay

 

EDU1-120.GIF?08-0EDU1-168.GIF?08-0EDU1-216.GIF?08-0EDU1-240.GIF?08-0

 

Whilst some days are likely to be cooler than others it would be pleasant enough in any sunshine (east could be quite cloudy if an easterly flow sets up) frosts would continue to occur where skies clear overnight

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows a very robust block forming with high pressure becoming dominant from the end of the week ahead onwards. It will feel pleasant in the sunshine with shelter from the breeze. I hope we see more sun and less cloud once the settled spell arrives from Friday.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The high is shunted further east tonight compared to last night's 18z with Atlantic low pressure slowly reclaiming lost ground. It's been a feature of the Gfs today to show a more unsettled trend through week 2. Another feature of the 18z, next weekend would be very mild and fine with broken cloud and sunny spells but then much colder at the start of week 2 with a risk of some light wintry ppn moving in from the north sea, then by Tuesday of that week, as fronts push east, a spell of snow for northern hills and low res becomes more unsettled from the west.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Good agreement amongst the main op runs up to about D8-9 but again once the Scandi High begins to slide East around that time (GEM picked up on that first) we have phasing issues as we await the next HP cell from the SW. How much of the Atlantic will break off the jet and head SE? D10 charts:

 

post-14819-0-48438500-1425886610_thumb.p post-14819-0-94715400-1425886610_thumb.p post-14819-0-53029300-1425886611_thumb.g

 

After D10 the models handle that HP cell differently and looking at the GEFS nearly every combo is in the mix so quite uncertain. Initially most comprise of a continuation of higher pressure over the UK but with lots of divergence still from there. Good to see the GFS op has got over its hangover from yesterday when it was all over the place.

 

Still looking like the ECM has only a few mm for the SE from the three fronts in the coming 4 days whilst the GFS op suggests 10-15mm. GFS 8 day totals:

 

post-14819-0-95380800-1425887153_thumb.g

 

After D10 the MJO signal is to weaken the very high amplitude phase 7 and the GEFS continue to suggest phase 8 will be bypassed hence the lack of a trend towards a GH:

 

post-14819-0-68991800-1425887315_thumb.g

 

However over the last 2-3 days the signal late in FI from the GEFS has been to lower the UK pressure and the D16 mean highlights that:

 

post-14819-0-60320100-1425887455_thumb.p

 

So probably best to enjoy the next 10-12 days of HP in the S/SE. The N/NW have some more unsettled conditions till Friday as the jet passes through Scotland but after that 4-5 days of dry weather further north as well.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 00z mean shows the blocking high in one form or another persisting until late march with generally fine conditions, the Gfs 0z op is also much more settled than the 18z. From this Friday onwards the weather will settle down with variable amounts of cloud and sunshine, any frontal rain becoming restricted to far western / northwestern areas, mainly dry for the majority and feeling pleasant in the sunny spells, especially with shelter from any chilly breezes.

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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY MARCH 9TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION
A small but vigorous depression will move NE across the far NW of Britain today with troughs sweeping east over the UK followed by a ridge of High pressure tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry weather with some sunshine and just occasional rain. Temperatures will be close to average overall.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the flow across the North of the UK through the upcoming days before moving the axis further to the NW to Iceland next weekend. The flow then becomes much less defined later as it becomes deflected by High pressure across Europe.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows a rather changeable week to come as High pressure moves close to the South at times but with a series of troughs in the SW flow crossing too at times with occasional rain for many. Then High pressure builds across Europe and keeping a ridge back towards the Southern portion of the UK. then as this High declines a new one to the North follows a short unsettled spell as Low pressure affects the UK moving slowly SE. The run ends with High pressure to the west with a ridge across the Uk with a lot of fine weather around.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif
 
THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run makes rather less of the High pressure influence in Week 2 as the High over Europe declines and allows lower pressure to become established, substantially later with stronger West winds and rain at times for all in two weeks time.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The story from the GFS clusters this morning is still a mixed one with a variety of options involving the proximity of High pressure to the South and whether or not Low pressure to the north influences all of the UK or just the North while 15% show an Atlantic High and a cold Northerly flow.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a changeable week of weather to come with some rain for all especially later as fronts moves across the UK through the working week clearing up from the South over next weekend as a ridge from a large European High extends back across the South of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a complex synoptic pattern through the week with High pressure never far away from the South but marred by the inception of quite active troughs moving East across the UK with rain at times before Day 5 shows a halting of the frontal passages just to the East of the UK as High pressure builds across the South of the UK.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM Following the passage of Low pressure troughs across the UK this week High pressure to the NE or North over the second half of the run brings drier and more settled conditions across the UK later in a slack east or SE flow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows more settled conditions developing late in the week and next weekend as the High over Europe extends a ridge west to the South of the UK. Troughs do threaten the extreme west and NW at the start to next week though.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows High pressure too building from the East next week as winds switch towards the East rather than the SW. As a result dry weather will prevail for a time although unstable air aloft could bring some showers West across the South of the UK later perhaps extending to other areas too late in the period as temperatures struggle to reach average levels at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean Chart remains largely unchanged with a large Continental High pressure extending back through the British Isles to the Azores with fine and dry weather for all

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend for a period of High pressure based weather from a centre over Europe reamins today.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.7 pts followed by UKM at 97.2 pts and GFS at 96.5. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 90.9 pts over UKMO at 89.0 pts and GFS at 87.5. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 68.2 pts over GFS's 61.3 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 49.0 pts over GFS at 44.1.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS There remains little overall change in the synoptic weather pattern for the next few weeks from what was shown yesterday with High pressure over Europe dominating the weather across many parts of the UK next week following this weeks very changeable conditions with occasional wind and rain. The dominance of this High looks like being in the shape of a ridge West towards Suthern England with light winds but not necessarily sunny skies. In fact it looks like a lot of cloud could be dragged across in the flow with temperatures suppressed as a result. It is likely that the West would see the best of any cloud breaks. Then we have to look to the models that indicate the demise of this High in preference to more unsettled conditions towards the end of the period and that honour goes to the GFS operational and control as well it's ensemble data who indicate more of a Westerly flow returning by 14 days time. ECM has some instability shown within it's later stages as the Easterly flow from a ridge further North than other models show give rise to showery rain later moving West from Europe. All these though are nuances in a rather themed High pressure pattern and in general after this weeks occasional wind and rain events next week looks rather better and if we can get the sunshine to pop out between the rather cloudy skies then it could feel very Springlike in places but any drift of wind from the East such as the ECM operational shows could make things rather cold and raw. It's a case of wait and see how the High to the East transpires late this week before we can give a more affirmed prediction of how surface events in any one place pan out next week.   

Issued at 09:00 Monday March 9th 2015

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

As per the past few days the ECM ens has high pressure dominating from later this week

 

Reem1201.gifReem1681.gifReem2161.gifReem2401.gif

 

If we do get an easterly flow setting up it would bring quite a bit of cloud I suspect which would keep temperatures down however if you were to get some sunshine (west has the best chance from easterlies) then it would feel quite pleasant

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Take extra care in Scotland this evening, especially to the north of the central belt, a large zone is expecting gusts of 75 mph + along with frequent squally showers but it's really all about the wind, a few places could record over 90 mph gusts and there will be ferry service disruption, it will also be windy further south but for Scotland in particular there will be another few bouts of wet and windy weather during this week but turning settled from Friday onwards with lighter winds.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

developing ens -AO and NAO in fi though early days on this

The extended eps develop the sceuro trough though at two weeks distance, it's nothing dramatic as yet.

Coupled with a general height rise somewhere to our west, late March could deliver the wintriest looking sypnotics of the last couple years although timing wise would be difficult to get much on the ground snow wise.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

My latest Blog - looks at the storm hitting the north tonight - note the big pressure rise across Scotland in 24hrs - as much as 40mb! Then looking ahead at a changeable week followed by a change to settled & colder conditions from weekend:

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6504;sess= â€¦

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 6z mean shows a spell of higher pressure than we have known since last autumn which begins on Friday, the sun is strong enough through mid March to make rather chilly days feel pleasant.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The 6z op run shows rather colder conditions early next week with a chilly ESE'ly continental flow but temperatures then recover as winds back to more of a S'ly, the met office update is similar with temperatures briefly dipping a little below average through the start of next week and then returning to normal. I expect there will be variable amounts of cloud, sometimes large amounts but I also expect decent sunny spells, where skies clear at night there will be slight frosts.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

The GFS 12z also has an easterly developing through the weekend and into the first park of next week - that is a certainty now but by Tuesday the Atlantic has begun its fight back and deflected the colder air back northwards. However not soon enough to prevent a particulary cool few days on Sunday and Monday especially for eastern areas. But milder air then pushes back into the south west as winds change direction.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Just a quickie at the moment, but I think the models are sniffing at a pretty cold latter half of March...winds from NE/Easterly direction could become dominant.  It'll be typical but we could be looking at the synoptics many [and I] chased this winter

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 12z mean shows a prolonged settled outlook with high pressure lasting until well beyond mid month.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Looking through GFS next week may not be all that bad temperature wise after Monday

 

Monday looks quite chilly with temps in single figures

 

ukmaxtemp.png

 

Tuesday has temperatures for England and Wales widely in double figures

 

ukmaxtemp.png

 

Wednesday again is shown to have temperatures into the low teens possibly mid teens for parts of the south and east

 

ukmaxtemp.png

 

We can only see to mid-day now but the Thursday could be a slightly cooler day with temps peaking around 9c

 

ukmaxtemp.png

 

A gradual rise in temps during the weekend

 

ukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.png

 

That milder air then takes us into the final full week of March

 

ukmaxtemp.png

 

Temperatures next week will be dependent on cloud cover and this coming weekend could be fairly sunny away from the far west and the SE later on Sunday

 

12_123_ukcloud.png?cb=62112_147_ukcloud.png?cb=621

 

Next week does look quite cloudy for England and Wales though some days could see the cloud breaking more than others where it does break it will begin to feel more pleasant under light winds

 

12_171_ukcloud.png?cb=62112_195_ukcloud.png?cb=62112_219_ukcloud.png?cb=62112_240_ukcloud.png?cb=62112_264_ukcloud.png?cb=621

 

So looking at those cloud cover charts Monday, Wednesday and Thursday could be the cloudiest days with Tuesday and Friday seeing better chances for the cloud to break allowing some sunshine to develop

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Actually Gavin, Monday is rather cold in single digits Celsius, as was the 6z, then Tuesday and Wednesday are much milder with thurs / Fri cooler and then milder again.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Corrected now Karl got the day's wrong on my post

 

:)

No worries gav :-)

It looks like a prolonged settled outlook to me, I'm sure folk in Scotland will be happy about that after tonight's stormy weather.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

This evenings Ecm 12z shows high pressure building in but as with the 0z it shows pockets of unstable air aloft which brings a risk of a few showers, however, it then becomes more like the anticyclonic conditions I am hoping for with an increase in sunshine totals later in the run...and then one of those Ecm T+240 cliffhangers with high pressure pulling west and the chance of an Arctic plunge.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Another NH profie like the ecm day 10 op tomorrow and Steve et al will be back!

It looks very good doesn't it :-)

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Edited by Frosty.
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