western pacific Tropical Storm Bavi

[Somerset Squall]

A new tropical depression has formed well out to the east of the Western Pacific basin, to the south of the island of Kwajalein. Winds are currently at 30kts. 03W consists of a large mass of convection over the LLCC, and fragmented convective banding. The depression is in a favourable environment for strengthening, with low shear, warm sea temps and good outflow. JTWC expect a peak of 65kts (which would make 03W the season's third typhoon, an impressive feat considering it's only March and it's off season), before increasing shear weakens 03W again as it approaches Guam. Subtropical ridging to the north will remain the primary steering influence throughout the next 5 days, maintaining a west-northwesterly track.

[Somerset Squall]

03W has become Tropical Storm Bavi, with winds of 35kts. Further strengthening is still expected.

[Somerset Squall]

Bavi has been struggling over the last day with easterly shear, however, the storm has still managed to strengthen to 45kts. The LLCC is partially exposed on eastern edge of the main convective mass. Favourable outflow is maintaining this deep convection in spite of the shear. Further slow strengthening is expected as Bavi tracks generally westwards. Marginal conditions as the system eventually approaches the Philippines will stop Bavi becoming particularly intense, but the environment should be conducive enough to support a strong tropical storm. There is a chance Bavi could become a minimal typhoon, though JTWC are forecasting a 60kt peak at 72hrs followed by a plateau in intensity.

[Somerset Squall]

Bavi has managed to strengthen a little more, to 50kts. However, shear is still affecting the storm, and is now set to get stronger over the coming days as Bavi tracks westwards towards the Philippines. Bavi, therefore, has probably peaked, and JTWC forecast weakening from this point forward, with Bavi expected to weaken to a tropical depression before reaching the Philippines.