Has AGW forcings made ENSO predictions poorer?

[Gray-Wolf]

We have , since the mini Nino of 2010, been given warnings of an upcoming Nino for each year there after ( or so it seems???) with last years even warning of a major event.

 

Folk wishing to dis current climate science have pounced upon this failure as more evidence of how incapable climate science is but are these fair observations?

 

With winds over the Pacific measured at record levels ( esp. the Trades) and ocean over turning by these extreme winds burying heat before it had a chance to interact with the atmosphere could the 'old methods' have been useful in anything other than showing us what would have occurred without these extreme conditions arising?

 

I myself was gunning for a major Nino event last year ( believing the winds had dies back enough to allow the atmosphere to come into play) only to see resurgent trades squish it down into a borderline affair ( albeit one that drove record global temps). once again we see a major KW pushing out but this year we are another year further away from the extremes that had brought us failed Nino's and a run of Ninas so will we now see the 'major Nino' building as atmosphere finally comes on board?#]]#

 

We were told , last year, that the difference in Atlantic and Pacific basin temps were behind the winds keeping Nino at bay. We were also told that this 'difference' was fading to parity ( so meaning the winds would return back down to 'normal' values) so can we now expect a strong Nino ( I say 'Strong' due to the fuel at its disposal in the west Pacific warm pool) as 'normal' atmospheric cooperation with the Nino event redistributes the huge warm pool out west?

[Midlands Ice Age]

We have , since the mini Nino of 2010, been given warnings of an upcoming Nino for each year there after ( or so it seems???) with last years even warning of a major event.

 

Folk wishing to dis current climate science have pounced upon this failure as more evidence of how incapable climate science is but are these fair observations?

 

With winds over the Pacific measured at record levels ( esp. the Trades) and ocean over turning by these extreme winds burying heat before it had a chance to interact with the atmosphere could the 'old methods' have been useful in anything other than showing us what would have occurred without these extreme conditions arising?

 

I myself was gunning for a major Nino event last year ( believing the winds had dies back enough to allow the atmosphere to come into play) only to see resurgent trades squish it down into a borderline affair ( albeit one that drove record global temps). once again we see a major KW pushing out but this year we are another year further away from the extremes that had brought us failed Nino's and a run of Ninas so will we now see the 'major Nino' building as atmosphere finally comes on board?#]]#

 

We were told , last year, that the difference in Atlantic and Pacific basin temps were behind the winds keeping Nino at bay. We were also told that this 'difference' was fading to parity ( so meaning the winds would return back down to 'normal' values) so can we now expect a strong Nino ( I say 'Strong' due to the fuel at its disposal in the west Pacific warm pool) as 'normal' atmospheric cooperation with the Nino event redistributes the huge warm pool out west?

 

GW

 

Not sure anyone knows.....

Does anyone know what the true greenhouse effect is? 

So how can one determine what the effect will be..., when it finally does happen?.

 

Sooner or later a true Nino will occur.  At the moment the pacific seems to be fairly neutral (warm west colder east, the AMO appears to be turning negative).  I agree that there may be more  warming just below the surface in central western areas of the Pacific, but we do not understand these phenonoma to be able to look more tham a few weeks ahead.

 

I do not decry your attempts at brain 'storming'  (old word, I know) or thinking what may happen. It is nice to see people do that, but please aknowledge that nothing is certain as to how these interactions occur and we are all learning from mother nature.

 

It could be that the Nino/Nina effect is natures way of dealing with the excess heat in the system, at anyone point, so the large Ninos of the 90's, could have been a reaction to the climate warming seen in the previous 20 years. You seem to be suggesting the missing heat scenario as being proposed by Trenberth (into the ocean) as a fact.... Is it?    

Maybe it just reflects the surface temperatures?

 

However I do not know....  and I bow to your superior knowledge and assertions in these matters.

 

MIA

 

Edited March 14, 2015 by Midlands Ice Age

[Gray-Wolf]

It had just appeared that parts of the forecasts were based with what was being measured 'on the ground' but that the general odd wind behaviours messed with a model built around much more benign system?

 

As such we saw the 'ground work' of a nino begin to assemble but then the unruly atmosphere power its way in and mess everything around?

 

If this is so then last year proved nearer to coming true than the previous bust forecasts as the 'unruly winds' backed down toward more 'normal' behaviours?

 

The 'Fuel' for a Nino is still there in spades, the Trades made sure of that! so will we now see this long overdue atmospheric cooperation occur? 

 

If so then what of all this warm pool piled high in the West Equatorial Pacific??? Will we see the nino consume all of this reserve???

 

The 'Modoki' pattern we've been seeing for a couple of months now seem to confirm what I'd been saying about gravity acting on the warm pool alone? ( the drop in trades mean they can no longer hold up such a pile of water and so some slips back East under Gravity?) so what the heck will we see when the atmosphere sets up its conveyor to shove the rest back East?????

[VillagePlank]

The answer for your question is "no"

You think the predictions are worse because you actually believed them to be rock solid hard evidential science. Big mistake. As I understand it the skill has been steadily increasing. Ie the scientists have actually been doing science. Who would've thought it!

Still, you can take comfort in knowing that if you predict the ENSO from hell enough times it's bound to happen and you can bask in the knowledge that "hey dude, you really nailed that one"

Edited March 15, 2015 by Sparkicle