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2015 Virtual Storm Chase Thread


Nick F

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Storms, Snow Thunder, Supercells, all weather extremes
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level

watching david drummond on tvn over 11000 viewers the rotation is amazing

 

touchdown

Edited by Boro Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

watching david drummond on tvn over 11000 viewers the rotation is amazing

 

touchdown

Yes,watching Drummond and i saw the touchdown but was brief,plenty of time for more action i would believe.

 

post-16960-0-82520300-1429742101_thumb.p

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Storms, Snow Thunder, Supercells, all weather extremes
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level

Yes,watching Drummond and i saw the touchdown but was brief,plenty of time for more action i would believe.

 

attachicon.gifUntitled 2.png

yeah i agree i am trying to find a live weather news feed but not much luck yet

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

18735 views on Drummond now,wow.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Storms, Snow Thunder, Supercells, all weather extremes
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

 Lovely cell,tornado warned

 

post-16960-0-07840300-1429751464_thumb.p

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

Last night was another example where facts didn't quite match expectation

The TP did the job early but progression East into better parameters didn't fire them up

Friday may be another similar case with capping and the moderation from early crudvection spoiling the party? But if ECM syncs then we could see one or two decent tubes in C KS

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

It was fun watching though last night, some excellent feeds that didn't drop out.

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Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

It was fun watching though last night, some excellent feeds that didn't drop out.

I agree. Normally good signal cover in N Texas.

I also like the increase in audio plus video. Makes it more entertaining listening to all the ranting and raving and swearing!

Fri pm looking quite tasty now with less signal for crud induced initiation delays.

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

I agree. Normally good signal cover in N Texas.

I also like the increase in audio plus video. Makes it more entertaining listening to all the ranting and raving and swearing!

Fri pm looking quite tasty now with less signal for crud induced initiation delays.

And not forgetting the sound of booming thunder and penetrating hail storms..!!

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Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

Friday, and a split decision looms from the three judges.
The choice of Northern target for potential earlier and more discrete cells, but lower instability and only a moderate tornado risk, or the Southern target for more instability, more complex storm modes with maybe only a few discrete cells but a much more tornadic environment with regard shear parameters (East of DFW)

The DL looks a bit diffuse to me on the 06Z RAP. A very tricky one to call.

As I'm already 'in' SW KS I'm going to bank on a stalling DL and a slower surface low progression and pin the 281 between Pratt and Great Bend, KS 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Storms, Snow Thunder, Supercells, all weather extremes
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
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Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

Is it me or is the SPC getting a little more cautious these days - not so much in the categorical system as I quite like the split of slight into marginal and enhanced, but in their wording. It was clear (or it could be strongly argued I should say) that last night was unlikely to produce strong tornados of any significance but in their update Day 1 they used 'intense' to describe any tornado that formed (TX/AR region).
The season is only a third of the way through but we've already seen plenty of unfulfilled expectation and a total bust or two.

If I'm being 'virtual-centric' then I apologise. I may see things much more clearly once I'm tucking into my cheerios at the Great Western, Lewisville :D

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

I would think that the addition of the new warning levels and cautious forecasts is probably to cover possible events that they would previously not have gone for. ie, a 10% drift in the favour of something happening. This may be a result of insurance company pressure or a bid to save more lives.

Whilst all the above is conjecture, the spectre of cry wolf on too many occasions may have the opposite result of the warnings intention.

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Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

Surprised SPC don't have an Enhanced for C TX this evening. Sharp DL and plenty of moisture ahead of it with impressive instability Abilene and points East. Looped hodos scream a sig tor risk. Am I missing something?

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

So, 10% tornado risk over central Texas today, going for Brownwood SW of DFW and see what fires on the dryline. Really wanna keep south of the metroplex area and not go into it, but DFW could get pummelled later so be interesting to watch the TV live news. Anyone else got a chase target?

 

A few TV channels that should have live severe weather news later:

 

http://www.fox4news.com/weather

http://www.nbcdfw.com/weather/

 

TVN live chase streams:

 

https://tvnweather.com/live/

 

Selection of charts: SPC tornado probs, surface analysis for 00z Sunday (18z CDT), MLCAPE and sig. tornado:

 
post-1052-0-73637000-1430062986_thumb.gipost-1052-0-76883900-1430063010_thumb.gipost-1052-0-69966000-1430063029_thumb.gipost-1052-0-15358100-1430063050_thumb.gi
Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Storms, Snow Thunder, Supercells, all weather extremes
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level

Warning has been upgraded to MDT with a sig tornado risk for central Texas 

 

Stay safe guys

Edited by Boro Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury
  • Location: Aylesbury

Not had time to look at any charts, so I will just go with my golden 'storms always seem to fire in Abilene' rule! I will start my day there for a bit of fun.

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Posted
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Sun, Deep Snow, Convective Goodness, Anvil Crawlers
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands

I'm going for Hamilton, although started to dither and now considering mineral wells.

Abeline is a good shout for the early stuff looking at the most recent MD.

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

tornado warning just north of Abilene, doug crace on it, nice rotation from the low clouds

 

another one just gone TW SE of Abilene, minuteman disaster response getting in behind it.

Edited by matty40s
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

tornado warning just north of Abilene, doug crace on it, nice rotation from the low clouds

Yes Matty,been watching that and i see the rotation on the whole cell

 

another tornado warning now on that SE cell of Abilene

 

north of Abilene cell

 

post-16960-0-03158400-1430077393_thumb.p

 

SE of Abilene sell

 

post-16960-0-21009600-1430077529_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

The structure on the tor warned cell between Abilene and Brownwood shaping up nicely with good wall cloud and beavers tail, classic text book, just a case of waiting for the meso to tighten its updraft and drop a tornado, the supercell's already done a right turn - which is promising.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Reading recent MD for central Texas suggests today's set-up is not clear-cut with a confluence zone just ahead of the dryline helping storm development but storms being affected by inflow of drier air that subsided from mid-level convection further east interrupting moisture inflow and making storm structures messy.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0468.html

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