Arctic Sea Ice Discussion 2015: The Melt Season

[knocker]

Worth reading I feel

 

"Ground" truthing Arctic satellite data is inherently perilous given ice dynamics like this:

 

http://nyti.ms/1Fchqkr

[stewfox]

Volume appears to be similar to ten years ago.

It's a tough time to be an alarmist unless you pretend the recent recovery must e a blip.

 

In need and as if often repeated volume is the key

 

Be interesting to see where we are in the next 10 years

[Midlands Ice Age]

I think it's ok. Shows best estimate, error range and compares to modern records. If a loss of ice similar to recent decades had occurred in that record it would have been quite apparent, despite the smoothing.

You and I know that smoothing does exactly that!

Just try smoothing all the data and see what happens!

Edited May 10, 2015 by Midlands Ice Age

[BornFromTheVoid]

You and I know that smoothing does exactly that!

Just try smoothing all the data and see what happens!

 

Smoothing is just smoothing. Any large and prolonged deviations will still be apparent, as can be seen with recent data, which is also smoothed.

It's also interesting to note that the graph only goes up to 1995.

 

So, what is it you think is going on, MIA? Spell out the conspiracy theory, which you believe these scientists are engaged in, for the benefit of us naive folk.

[4wd]

Come off it, recent data has far greater resolution than an estimate (based on what) for centuries ago.
 

I can hardly believe anyone takes that imaginative graph at face value

[BornFromTheVoid]

Come off it, recent data has far greater resolution than an estimate (based on what) for centuries ago.

 

I can hardly believe anyone takes that imaginative graph at face value

 

Sure it's higher resolution, but it's also been smoothed and only goes up to 1995. You can read it in the paper yourself if you like, or close your eyes and shout that it's not real. Up to you.

 

I'm getting the feeling that this could be one of those situations where proxy data is evil because it doesn't show what you want (unlike when you use it to show the MWP or the LIA)?

[4wd]

And what about end point bias - total joke.

[stewfox]

Will be interesting to see how  the ice volume figures for May end up

 

Continue below average temps in the high arctic we must be seeing continued ice growth off setting the peripheral melt

 

Will recovery start at the core ? 2015 graph attached cf 1958 (which is fairly representative). Is nature balancing out ? Cool summers up there seems a common theme in recent years.

 

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Edited May 11, 2015 by stewfox

[Geordiesnow]

Will be interesting to see how  the ice volume figures for May end up

 

Continue below average temps in the high arctic we must be seeing continued ice growth off setting the peripheral melt

 

Will recovery start at the core ? 2015 graph attached cf 1958 (which is fairly representative). Is nature balancing out ? Cool summers up there seems a common theme in recent years.

 

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

Yet I'm seeing weather patterns that looks like we could be heading into favorable melt with a potential dipole setting up and what strikes me so far this month is just how warm the landmasses are already. I mean 3 places with sea ice cover are looking likely to warm up, that is Beaufort, Kara and Hudson Bay. 

 

Beaufort looks the most concerning too me, potentially unfavorable wind direction, warmth and sunshine and the ice there is looking rather fragile with open water already appearing here, I would not be surprised too see a large polynya appearing here, just like in 2012, conditions look awful here to say the least in the forseeable future although as we know weather patterns can change. 

 

Recent models runs have shown the warmth backing away from Kara but there is no escape of some warm uppers arriving here at least for a short while and its perhaps not that unusual too see Hudson Bay getting a few warm spells mixed in with colder shots afterwards. 

 

The current set ups reminds me of 2011 which saw a massive warm spell coming in from Alaska and by the end of the month, all the landmasses were well above average with very little polar air on the landmasses, this is going to be a big test for the ice I feel and I can see potentially a record low for this month as things stand. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Relatively benign conditions so far this month, yet IJIS has moved back to lowest on record.

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/vishop-extent.html?N

 

 

I agree with Geordiesnow, conditions from the end of the week onward looking very mild across much of the Arctic. Of course, this may change (as it did so many times last year) but the potential is there for the first bout of very mild conditions of the summer. This is also the time of year that many believe are crucial to the melt season, when the first melt ponds begin to form. Wide spread melt ponding just in time for the sun to be at it's strongest will mean the Arctic absorbs a lot more energy. So that's another thing to keep an eye on.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's an animation of the 925hPa temperature anomaly from Apr 9 to May 9, 2001 to 2015.

 

 

A pretty mild period for this year, though broadly in line with the anomalies seen since 2003.

[Geordiesnow]

Relatively benign conditions so far this month, yet IJIS has moved back to lowest on record.

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/vishop-extent.html?N

 

 

I agree with Geordiesnow, conditions from the end of the week onward looking very mild across much of the Arctic. Of course, this may change (as it did so many times last year) but the potential is there for the first bout of very mild conditions of the summer. This is also the time of year that many believe are crucial to the melt season, when the first melt ponds begin to form. Wide spread melt ponding just in time for the sun to be at it's strongest will mean the Arctic absorbs a lot more energy. So that's another thing to keep an eye on.

 

The warmest of the air does look reserved for Beaufort in the main part only but the worry for me is that weather conditions here have been pretty poor for sea ice retention and it looks likely an area of high pressure will head through Alaska towards the Canadian Arctic islands which will help bring the warmer air and have winds blowing strongly off the land which could potentially increase the large open water. 

 

Laptev at least looks like it will remain cold and there is no real sign of having that unusually polynya developing near those islands like was the case last year however the ice is thin here so it would not take much warmth and unfavorable wind direction for this to change. 

 

As per ever, the weather patterns are subject to change but the trend does seem to be clear of high pressure and warmth near Beaufort and low pressure and colder conditions near Laptev and we all know this means dipole conditions which is not good news for the ice. 

[knocker]

Forecast temp anomaly. Usual caveats apply of course.

Chart weatherbell

 

[Gray-Wolf]

And if the Alaskan current is depositing warmed waters from 'the blob' along the Alaskan coast and into the Canadian Archipelago? What pattern of melt should we expect to see then? We could see the area alleged to hold our thickest ,oldest ice melted back from below whilst 'melt pond May' gets into full swing above.

 

Checking world view shows Fram still exporting and , over the past two days, a large chunk above NE Greenland has come adrift on its way into the straight. 

 

https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721(hidden),Graticule,Coastlines&t=2015-05-12&v=-971936,-1679104,1825632,-362240

[Geordiesnow]

I don't want to exagerate here but with the exception of 2011, this must be possibly be the worst ever weather pattern the Arctic could ever have for this time of year if it wants to survive during the summer, no real signs of the heat in Beaufort going, Kara sea is warmer than average and so is Hudson Bay and all 3 areas look very vulnerable to melting now. 

 

Of course the weather patterns could very well change but even at this early stage, the odds are favoring that we won't be as high as 2013/14 and that at least for the first part of the melt season we could be looking at record breaking lows.

 

The small but tightly packed high pressure over Beaufort is just the starter before the main course of that heat from the landmasses rolling in. One thing 2011 did have after the intense heat coming in from Alaska is that the weather conditions turned much colder and winds was coming from the Arctic which helped to close the open water somewhat, there is certainly no signs of that this year as of yet.

 

Of course, warm spells entering the Arctic does happen, however happening in the middle of May and to this intensity is most certainly not normal. If there is some crumbs of comfort is that the weather patterns are forecast to be reletively slack(from what I know, you don't really want too see small tightly packed lows forming over thin ice which could lead too the ice fragmenting and be more vulnable to melting) and that Laptev still looks like it will remain fairly cold for the timebeing so possibly delaying any real formation of the "laptev bite" unlike last year where it did form early and formed in an unusual manor. 

[stewfox]

I don't want to exagerate here but with the exception of 2011, this must be possibly be the worst ever weather pattern the Arctic could ever have for this time of year if it wants to survive during the summer, no real signs of the heat in Beaufort going, Kara sea is warmer than average and so is Hudson Bay and all 3 areas look very vulnerable to melting now. 

 

 

 

These areas will melt out anyway

 

High arctic temps  remains well below average ,

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

 

I seem to have lost the link to IJIS download figure any assistance any one ?

[Geordiesnow]

These areas will melt out anyway

 

High arctic temps  remains well below average ,

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

 

I seem to have lost the link to IJIS download figure any assistance any one ?

 

However you get the positive feedback of less sea ice leads to less sea ice, somewhere like Hudson Bay may not make much difference but Beaufort will and of course the high temps will start to 'warm' the SST's up which may have an impact later on in the melt season. 

 

A closer look at the charts suggests it won't be constant warmth as winds do back off and so does the heat but its only fleeting and there is a strong forecast across the models of frequent off shore winds and quite strong off shore winds also potentially. 

 

And yes around the poles, it is below average and that is where the PV is currently situated, in fairness, I much rather the PV to be more serparated across the Arctic rather than more or less concentrated in one area. 

 

Interesting times ahead and exactly how long this pattern will last for, sometimes the models can persist with such patterns for longer than it actually is but I been looking at a lot of model runs for quite a number of days and whilst there may be some variation, the main theme does seem high temps in the Western Arctic and low temps in the Eastern half of the Arctic although there has not been too strong of a hint of a dipole pattern as of yet.

[knocker]

These areas will melt out anyway

 

High arctic temps  remains well below average ,

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

 

I seem to have lost the link to IJIS download figure any assistance any one ?

 

JAXA have announced an interruption for maintenance, until May 20

Edited May 16, 2015 by knocker

[4wd]

Could someone post up ice webcam links if they are up yet?

[BornFromTheVoid]

While the Kara/Barents region gets bouts of above 0C temps, surface air temps are forecast to be well above 0C across the Beaufort, Chukchi and a large portion of the Pacific side of the central Arctic and East Siberian Sea for the foreseeable future.

 

 

 

Long range, models maintain a strong ridge over the Beaufort/Alaska region, keeping things very mild there, while a ridge builds in western Russia/eastern Scandi, which could bring very mild southerlies to the Kara/Barents regions.

 

 

[knocker]

Have to say these anomalies are fairly consistent over the period.

Chart weatherbell

 

[Gray-Wolf]

So by this time next week we'll see how the new fracturing impacts melt pond formation. prior to the last two cold years., but post the 'Crackopalypse' event I mused whether it could lead to either a faster or slower melt season. We either see floes separate and so expose themselves to greater thermal forcing from the ocean below or we see melt ponds unable to form as they drain instantly into the ocean below.

 

Current forecasts for Beaufort look dire so surely we ought to see melt ponds develop widely over the region over the coming days?

Edited May 17, 2015 by Gray-Wolf

[mikeworst]

So your excuse if there are a lack of melt ponds is that they are draining away instantly. 

Edited May 18, 2015 by Paul
Removed pointless comments

[knocker]

Don't forget the ASIG

 

In the past few weeks I've been gradually updating the Arctic Sea Ice Graphs website, a collection of all imaginable graphs and maps concerning the Arctic and its sea ice out there.

 

The biggest change has been the inclusion of a new Forecasts page that has maps showing what the forecast is for sea level pressure, temperature (anomaly) and some other things, for the next 7 days. Most of these maps are provided by the excellent and visually appealing Climate Reanalyzer website*.

 

This new page replaces the SLP Patterns page

that I had introduced to compare 6-day average atmospheric set-ups between years, but was too much work to update. It can still be accessed for anyone who wants to have a look, but I won't be updating it any longer.

 

I have been updating the ASIG's homepage where all the daily updated graphs and maps are situated. They are all grouped together according to category on the right hand side: sea ice concentration, sea ice extent & area, sea surface temperature, surface air temperature, sea level pressure & jet stream, buoys & sea ice drift, sea ice thickness, volume & age, Greenland ice, snow cover and miscellaneous.

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2015/05/arctic-sea-ice-graphs-page.html

[Gray-Wolf]

Thanks Knocks! 

 

The folk who have been pulling up DMI80N might want to keep an eye on it over the next 7 days! If current forecasts hold out we will see a near frost free basin by day 7???? now that would be amazing so early in melt season with a basin still chock full of ice........... if extensive melt pooling does give an indication of low ice at the end of the season we'd better have a good old look at Modis come next week???