western pacific Super Typhoon Noul

[Somerset Squall]

After a month long lull, which is very normal for this time of year, a new tropical depression, 06W, has formed, roughly 200 miles east-southeast of Yap. 06W has winds of 30kts according to JMA, and 25kts according to JTWC. Although the system is currently weak, it is expected to gain strength over the coming days as shear remains reletively low, waters warm along track, and outflow good. Subtropical ridging to the north is expected to maintain a west-northwestward track, with perhaps a bend to the northwest by day 4/5. JTWC expect 06W to have winds of 110kts by day 5, a strong category 3 (SS scale) typhoon. At this stage, 06W will be closing in on the Philippines. The Philippines need to pay close attention to 06W, as a landfall is possible in around a weeks time.

[Somerset Squall]

06W has become Tropical Storm Noul, with winds of 35kts. Convective banding has become more prominent, with deeper, more concentrated convection over the LLCC. Models are still split as to whether Noul will actually make landfall in the Philippines, or pass to the northeast. One thing seems very likely however; significant strengthening. JTWC expect Noul to be at 115kts by day 5.

[Somerset Squall]

Noul has continued to strengthen, with winds now at 60kts. The storm is passing directly over the island of Yap, visible in the satellite image below. The storm has a central dense overcast feature and a partial eyewall structure. Further strengthening is expected on approach to the Philippines.

[Somerset Squall]

Noul has further strengthened, and has become a 75kt typhoon. Deep banding flanks the central dense overcast, with an eye present. Very good outflow, low to moderate shear, and warm sea temps will allow further intensification. Latest track has Noul skirting the east coast of Luzon.

[Somerset Squall]

Noul has become a cat 2 on the SS scale, with winds of 90kts. The eye has become a little better defined but is not completely clear. Track has shifted a little bit to the south since I last posted, meaning more of an impact to the Philippines is expected. A recurve to the northeast is then forecast, with Noul exiting Luzon and then passing east of Taiwan, if the track verifies.

[Somerset Squall]

After a couple days of very slow intensification, it appears Noul is now rapidly intensifying. The eye has cleared out and is very well defined. Winds are currently at 105kts, but I think JTWC will raise this estimate next advisory. You can clearly see the excellent outflow Noul is experiencing in satellite imagery. This is not good news for Luzon.

[Somerset Squall]

Noul continues to rapidly intensify. Winds are up to 130kts according to JTWC, Super Typhoon status. Noul is closing in on Luzon, and is expected to become the season's second cat 5 on the SS scale before landfall.

[Somerset Squall]

Noul has become the season's second cat 5 with winds of 140kts. The very intense super typhoon is currently brushing northeastern Luzon at this intensity. Noul is expected to weaken from hereonin, firstly, due to land interaction, then increasing shear and passage over cooler waters. Extratropical transition will occur on the northeasterly recurve, with then process expected to complete as the storm races northeast, south of Japan.

[Somerset Squall]

Noul is weakening fast as shear rises and land interaction with northeast Luzon takes it's toll on the typhoon. You can see from this image that the storm is a shadow of its former self.

[knocker]

Super Typhoon Noul: Himawari-8 0.5-km res visible images at 2.5-min intervals: eye mesovorts http://go.wisc.edu/0ii0lk