Glastonbury Festival 24th-28th June 2015

[William of Walworth]

Thanks so much for all the great research and work, J10.

 

I'd even be saying this if the prospects were a a lot poorer.

[Mokidugway]

Agreed , big family affair this year and my 15 th visit !!!..

[William of Walworth]

15th is great! Congratulations.

 

In mine and festivaldeb's case, 19th and 18th respectively. But more respect to deb because her first one was in 1985 -- one of the worst mudbaths in Glastonbury history, and it still didn't put her off returning.

 

If (as seems likely) there's no mudbath this year, that will up the total of non washout years to as follows, in my case :

 

Sunny (mostly, and predominantly or completely dry) 11 (1984, 1994, 1995, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2003, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2013)

 

Borderline/mixed : 4     (2004, 2005, 2011, 2014)

 

Complete washouts : 3 (1997, 1998, 2007)

 

So if my years are in any way representative, Glastonbury actually has a better weather record than many people think and this year, we hope and pray, will add to that.

[devonhammer]

The GFS run this morning looks poor, but the ensemble shows it as a bit of an outlier and most of the other runs look OK.

[Mokidugway]

Cheers Will ,it's funny in my memory the Suns always out ,not looking to bad at mo:)...

[Tornandfrayed]

FIngers crossed for those of you going this year...it's looking positive!  I'm a bit confused as to why 1992 is not included in the years for being good weather. It was a heat wave for the entire weekend...in fact out of all the Glasto's I've been to 1992 and 2010 were both scorchers throughout!

[J10]

Latest blog out now and things still look positive, although perhaps not quite as good as yesterday.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4891-glastonbury-festival-2015-24-to-28-june-forecast-no-5/

 

At this stage, I am trying not to look too much at operational runs, and looking more at ensembles.

[knocker]

Looking at this evenings ECM ext anomaly tonight for the 25th everything looks good to go and is similar to the GEFs.

[William of Walworth]

FIngers crossed for those of you going this year...it's looking positive!  I'm a bit confused as to why 1992 is not included in the years for being good weather. It was a heat wave for the entire weekend...in fact out of all the Glasto's I've been to 1992 and 2010 were both scorchers throughout!

 

 

As far as my list above is concerned, I only left 1992 out because I wasn't there that year.

 

Nor 1989, 1993

 

<hates self for missing 3 full on scorchers ... with massive parties going on all over site 24 hours in each one of those years ... or  so I'm told by veterans ...>

[J10]

No full blog today,

 

However it is clear that the models have picked up on something, both GFS operational runs are a little disappointing, in terms of a dry and settled festival, although the GFS 12Hz ensembles are not that bad keeping average pressure at above 1020mb throughout.

 

The ECM 00Hz run had High Pressure over the UK on the 24th June but the 12Hz run has backed off from this a little, with no real dominant pressure either high/low, which can sometimes happen this time of year, with a very weak jet,

 

So in summary, the charts are painting a less clear cut picture today,  as ever there are ups and downs on the way to Glastonbury. 

[William of Walworth]

Bricking it at the moment. PLEASE don't go all pearshaped for next week, synoptics!?

[cfbath]

Looks to me as if it'll be a typical Glastonbury!

 

I still don't see anything bad enough in these charts to feel down trodden about.

[DanS]

This is the week when the forecasts start hotting up! Thanks everyone for your forecasts - checking this forum really is part of the tradition for me.

[J10]

Latest Blog now out

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4892-glastonbury-festival-2015-24-to-28-june-forecast-no-6/

 

While today's charts are not that best, they could be worse, and perhaps this afternoons charts are a little better than this mornings.

[J10]

No Blog today however I will updates today charts -

 

This post be updated through the evening as more charts come out.

 

In each case, the runs in order will be GFS 06Hz, GFS 12Hz, ECM 00Hz, ECM 12Hz and UKMO 12Hz

 

Runs for Monday 22nd June (T+144)

 

 

Fairly good agreement of Low Pressure to the North East of the UK, with GFS meaning damp/wet conditions for Glastonbury, as would the ECM 00Hz run. UKMO has the same general theme but with Higher pressure to the South, probably keeping it dry there, and ECM 12Hz has a ridge of Higher Pressure for SW areas but some fronts may linger close by.

 

Runs for Wednesday 24th June (T+192)

 

 

Both GFS have long draw South westerlies, with damp conditions for Northern and Western areas, the 00Hz run has is damp for the South West, the 12Hz keep the wetter weather further north. ECM 00Hz has low pressure close to western areas, looking rather wet, the 12hz ECM run has a SW wind with low pressure and rather damp air mass.

 

Runs for Friday 26th June (T+240)

 

 

GFS and ECM have long draw south westerlies, keeping things rather damp/ wet (in the case of GFS 12Hz), while the CM 12hz has a mini ridge of High Pressure , with wetness waiting in the wings to the west.

 

The operational runs show things rather unsettled and damp to start the festival, enough to create some dampness and possibly some mud at times, but by no means is a complete washout currently being forecasted.

It is also possible that Glastonbury would miss much of the rain, with this going further North and West.

 

Ensembles

 

 

Pressure average is now shown to drop below 1020mbfor much of he festival, if only slightly.

 

 

The Rainfall trend is for some rainfall around the 23rd and perhaps the 25th, but generally this is a bit drier than yesterday, and still no real sign of a washout festival, and while some mud is possible, at this stage, a mud bath is probably still unlikely.

 

   

 

Temps are now looking cool to start with 850HPa around +5c, and perhaps warming up a little over the weekend. (to 10c 850Hpa)

 

Overall Summary

 

The trend from a settled festival to something more unsettled continues apace, however even if the current patterns continue, Glastonbury may miss the worst of the rain with this going further north and things may not be too bad on the ground. And to this end, the Ensembles look a bit better than the op charts suggests as the worst of the conditions are further North and West.

 

However current trends are not the most pleasing at the moment.

[J10]

With the exception of the CPC charts,  that is the rundown of today's charts, if you feel I am being too negative, please let me know.

[Mokidugway]

With the exception of the CPC charts,  that is the rundown of today's charts, if you feel I am being too negative, please let me know.

no it's fine ,7 days now :0...

[J10]

The latest blog is now out. With considerable uncertainty remaining between the models. Will GFS be right, will ECM be right.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4893-glastonbury-festival-2015-24-to-28-june-forecast-no-7/

[J10]

It has gone quiet in here of late, thoughts are appreciated even if it to disagree with my comments.

[Mokidugway]

It has gone quiet in here of late, thoughts are appreciated even if it to disagree with my comments.

lol no probs ,can you give me a forcast for the burning man ??.

[Zippy]

No complaints here. You cannot be too negative about a Glastonbury forecast in my opinion. Thanks for your efforts, I enjoy reading every blog!

Still got a good feeling it's a warm one...

[William of Walworth]

All I want is for model runs to evolve in a less wet/more HP influenced/drier direction. For the SW at least!

 

Still a lot of uncertainty.

[bamberd]

I follow this thread every year and this is year is no different. It's part of the ritual. Keep up the good work! 

 

Quick question (from a complete weather novice!) - As the trends deteriorate as we move closer to the festival, Is it pretty nailed on now (this far out), that we are going to get rain or could there be a shift back to drier weather over the next few days?

[cfbath]

All I'm after is a dry weds & thurs so people can set up their tents without rain and then be able to sit on the grass and chill.

 

How are we looking for that?

 

To me it looks as though there will be around 7-10mm of rain between tues of next week and Saturday. Is that a lot? I'm not really clued up...

[devonhammer]

J10, thanks for your updates. There are many people hanging on your every word, even if there aren't many comments.

 

It looks like a nightmare to predict this year. If the lows stay a bit further North is could be completely dry and a bit further South, we could have substantial rain. It looks pretty likely that we'll have some rain, but pretty unlikely that it will be huge amounts. I'd rate this as a 5, but it's all to play for.