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Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->


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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

There would be an strange irony if the Greenland high is the trigger to rid us of this omnipresent north westerly flow and associated cool temperatures as the jet blows sw/ne through the UK. A long way off though.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

I hadn't realised that the appearance of a mid Atlantic ridge next week is driven by ex TS Bill. No wonder the fi modelling didn't pick this evolution up. of course, we know how unpredictable these things are so no surprise the models are swinging to and fro on it.

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

I'm sure most would take these sort of late June anomalies if they were to verify.

 

attachicon.gifgensnh-21-5-240.pngattachicon.gifEDH101-240.GIF.pngattachicon.gif814day.03.gif

 

 

I've booked some time off work at the end of the month though, which could yet scupper the whole setup. :laugh:

 

 

Thought it would be useful to provide a comparison of the same anomaly charts which are now at day six,and its fair to say there has been some degree of scuppering!

 

post-2839-0-67913600-1434489435_thumb.pnpost-2839-0-27356500-1434489419_thumb.pnpost-2839-0-16063900-1434489405_thumb.gi

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Nor did I but I suppose it should come as no surprise that disturbances such as this in the southern States would effect the downstream pattern and perhaps explains why the ridge is transient.

 

Anyway to show what a dog's dinner tonight's anomalies are take a quick glance at the start of Glastonbury. The ECM has a trough and LP over the UK whist the GEFS retains the Azores ridge. Mind I have it on good authority from Jan the Knocker that in the ext period our old friend the Azores in the SW will be back in action, more so if the GEFS has it's way.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

post-12275-0-65004500-1434489857_thumb.p

post-12275-0-91995500-1434489863_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Utterly horrid runs from all models tonight. While warm air gets into the south ahead of fronts, all 4 models tonight spell one word.. 'rainfest'..

 

Rtavn2163.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

Utterly horrid runs from all models tonight. While warm air gets into the south ahead of fronts, all 4 models tonight spell one word.. 'rainfest'..

 

Rtavn2163.gif

 

I couldn't disagree more with the description 'utterly horrid'. We are getting rid of the monotonous, cool northwesterly pattern and replacing it with a more mobile setup which should at least allow more southerly air into the mix. The ECM 12Z is not a bad run at all- of course there will be some rain but also some fine warm weather.

 

As has been mentioned earlier, pretty standard stuff for a British summer. Very easy to cherry pick charts like the one above as opposed to the days which would be dry.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

i agree with summer blizzard.... this mornings runs are an unsettled rain-fest, and its not one cherry picked chart that shows this, especially the ecm 12z from t162-t240 and beyond

post-2797-0-31608700-1434522604_thumb.gi post-2797-0-70726700-1434522638_thumb.gi

the gfs has the lows tracking further north, but they are still there suggesting a protracted unsettled atlantic flow. cloudier , and wetter then recently...personally id prefer the cool, fresh, but sunny northwesterlies.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

To be honest for southern, central and eastern areas I suspect sunshine amounts will be running higher compared to the north to north westerly we have experienced over the last several weeks. The pattern whilst mixed doesn't look too bad with a warmer and more humid flow giving more potential for some thundery downpours between weather systems, strangely in the timeframe mentioned from the ECM (Day 7-10), only one day looks wet there with the UK under the influence of weak ridges on the other days.

The charts pretty decent overall with temperatures near or a little above normal though the risk of cooler weather developing early next week if the trough is allowed to sink south eastwards enough before heights over Greenland become cut off and the jetstream loops back north east towards the UK.

 

To put more perspective on this, here is the rainfall accumulation prediction for the GFS over the next 10 days

240-777UK.GIF?17-0

Hardly a washout away from the usual areas where westerly winds do bring rain from time to time.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Feeling quite bold this morning I risked a glance at the ECM ops 500mb anomaly. Sums up the run really. But of course it's just one run

Chart weatherbell

 

post-12275-0-24330900-1434526049_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

An overall westerly upper flow looks the form horse to me for 6-10 and possibly out to 15 days. This would as Cs suggests above mean reasonable amounts of sunshine in the areas he mentions. Just how unsettled is impossible to say this far out but the fairly light 500mb flow does not suggest repeated depressions affecting the country even for the NW?

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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY JUNE 17TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weakening trough will move South across England and Wales followed by a slightly fresher NW flow under a ridge of High pressure tomorrow.

 


 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and bright weather with just isolated showers in relatively warm conditions in the South.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast remains focused on a flow travelling East or SE across the UK over the coming days before weakening somewhat next week but remaining in situ as Low pressure edges slowly South into the UK next week before weakening further thereafter.

 


 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows a High pressure ridge remaining influential as it stretches across Southern Britain from the Azores. However, it weakens at times sufficiently for troughs to feed down from the NW introducing some showers to more Northern and Eastern areas at times before the High rebuilds at times close to the Sou.

 


 


 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run shows few changes to the overall synoptic pattern with High pressure down to the SW or South continuing to hold influence across the UK with a lot of fine and dry weather with just brief interventions of cloudier and damper conditions at times across the North and East. Things are shown to warm up considerably for a time in Week 2 as High pressure migrates to the SE and draws a period of humid, thundery aor North for a time from France. 

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters remain focused on High pressure out to the SW with a ridge towards the UK promoting a lot of fine weather in two weeks time. There remains some exceptions to this general rule of thumb with a more Atlantic based pattern with rain at times but these members still remain in the minority this morning.

 


 

UKMO UKMO today has pressure becoming slacker over the weekend and start to next week. Winds remain from a NW source pulling down some cooler weather into the North with a few showers while the warmth is more likely across the South in the best of the sunshine.

 


 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts at first sight looks poor with a lot of weak frontal troughs straddling the UK from the NW over the coming 4-5 days with occasional rain and cloudy muggy air at times alternating with brighter and fresher days later.

 


 

GEM GEM shows only very slow changes too as High pressure to the SW continues to ward off attacks from the West or NW from weakening roughs moving down over the UK at times. A lot of dry and bright weather is likely but with occasional thicker cloud patches delivering some showers or outbreaks of rain towards the North and East..

 


 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows High pressure remaining largely in control with the centre just to the SW or West. Somewhat cooler air will be drawn South at times with a few showers in the North and East while the West sees the best of the weather.

 


 

ECM ECM too shows a lot of High pressure in control of the weather across the UK, most so across the South as weak fronts deliver cloud and a little rain or showers to the North at times. Then a short more unsettled period for all is shown next week as a deeper Low crosses the North with some wind and rain for all before High pressure re-estblishes from the South later next week with fine and warm conditions developing, once more especially across the South.

 


 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows that the basic message remains the same with High pressure never far away to the South or SW ensuring South is best for fine and relatively warm weather while the North sees the occasional risk of a little rain from Atlantic fronts rounding the High pressure ridge's Northern flank.

 


 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends between the models remain mostly focused on High pressure remaining influential across the UK in the shape of a ridge towards Southern Britain from the Azores anticyclone though some ingress of Low pressure from the NW does feature from some output at times.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.0 pts followed by UKMO at 95.8 pts and GFS at 95.7. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 86.7 pts with GFS at 83.2 pts and UKMO at 83.2 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 49.8 over 44.0. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 31.8 pts to 20.2 pts.

 


 


 


 


 

 

MY THOUGHTS The main message from the output today is again one of High pressure remaining largely dominant across the UK in the shape of a ridge from the SW. There are signs of a slackening of the NW flow through the weekend and start to next week as pressure leaks away somewhat and this might promote a few more showers with time but no major breakdown looks likely as High pressure still looks like rebuilding later perhaps more favourably in position to allow rather warmer conditions to develop across a wider portion of the UK. So not much else to say this morning with changes just small from day to day and area to area so with some confidence this morning I can say that there is a lot of dry and very useable conditions to come for most and while not excessively hot at anytime some reasonable and  comfortably warm weather is likely for many with just the chance from time to time of a shower or two to dampen the ground more especially in the North.   

 

Next update from 08:00 Thursday June 18th 2015

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

The GFS is sticking to High Pressure pushing North over Greenland buckling the Jet over the Atlantic and in turn sending Low Pressure over the UK for around the 21st, Giving the Uk a cool Northerly type flow. Thereafter a warm moist W/SW flow takes over.

 

hgt300.pngnpsh500.pngh850t850eu.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

The UKMETO have also come into line with the GFS. And ECMWF continues the theme this morning. I'm sure there will be slight adjustments over the coming days...

 

npsh500.120.pngnpsh500.120.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008

Those Met Office snapshots still show HP influencing the South though (in line with Gibby's summary?) -- or am I reading Polar Maritime's post wrongly?

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Those Met Office snapshots still show HP influencing the South though (in line with Gibby's summary?) -- or am I reading Polar Maritime's post wrongly?

 

Yes the far South may stay a little more settled, But very hit and miss with showers. A long way off really for such detail, But the UKMO does have the Low sat more over the Northern half of the UK, This in turn leaving High Pressure to influence the far South. A few miles adjustments N/S of the Low will make all the difference being a week out. 

 

ukprec.pngukprec.pngmet.120.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The GFS precip charts can't be taken as a given, but looking out to day 7 we can see the rain totals aren't especially high for the vast majority probably a mix of sunshine and showers with the odd longer spell of rain

 

162-777UK.GIF?17-6

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

The GFS 6z maintains very strong Height anomaly's over the Poles.

 

  npsh500.png

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Quite a notable and firm trend of recent GFS runs has been for High pressure to develop over the UK or close by the end of the month. 12z today shows how it could turn hot. This also concurrently occurs with good agreement for Greenland heights to break down in the final few days of the month too. 

 

Even though it seems GH may develop for a time, there is no real southerly tracking lows shown from the models. Consequently whilst some rain for all looks probable, its far from a washout with the swing far more in favour of more pleasant sunny spells, looking to warm up perhaps more significantly for the close of the month (and my Birthday!).

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Well it was one step forward yesterday in the models but the progress to a more interesting summer pattern seems to have stalled judging by tonight runs. But the signs of winds turning more westerly late next week are still there which would cut off the persistent cool flow.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Reliable timeframe a continuation of the theme of recent weeks which has been weak heights ridging in from the SW coming unstuck against lower heights nudging down from the NW, hence average temps at best and not particularly summery conditions, albeit far from terrible either. All rather clement and benign.

 

Longer term, models suggesting more of a westerly flow establishing with heights to the SW perhaps exerting greater influence as we see heights to the NW orientate in a more favourable position aligned with a more northwesterly tracking jet.

 

Its been a very slow start to summer in terms of any decent lengthy warm dry sunny weather, typically it often takes until the end of June before we see the summer get going properly and it looks like this will happen again this year, similar to 2013 in many respects, lets hope we get a July like 2013!

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

A quick look at the day ten GEFS anomaly to perhaps get a clue where we going with this.

 

Showing a ridge Alaska, HP Greenland and a low NE Canada with weak trough North Sea with the Azores ridge pushed a bit south which also puts a weak jet in an unfavorable position, So still unsettled over the UK in this westerly flow. But encouraging signs in the ext period of the Azores flexing it's muscles with ridging once again over the UK and NW Atlantic and the jet losing any impetus.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

post-12275-0-75646100-1434567101_thumb.p

post-12275-0-73371400-1434567117_thumb.p

Edited by knocker
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Well it was one step forward yesterday in the models but the progress to a more interesting summer pattern seems to have stalled judging by tonight runs. But the signs of winds turning more westerly late next week are still there which would cut off the persistent cool flow.

 

 

Hey, westerly is a cool wind direction in the Summer, ECM 12Z in particular shows this end of next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008

A quick look at the day ten GEFS anomaly to perhaps get a clue where we going with this.

 

Showing a ridge Alaska, HP Greenland and a low NE Canada with weak trough North Sea with the Azores ridge pushed a bit south which also puts a weak jet in an unfavorable position, So still unsettled over the UK in this westerly flow. But encouraging signs in the ext period of the Azores flexing it's muscles with ridging once again over the UK and NW Atlantic and the jet losing any impetus.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Second of the two images you posted looks pretty unbenign to my eyes, for Saturday 27th (and I'm presuming thereabouts, either side of then).

 

I really wish the 'extended period' you mention for Azores muscle-flexing could kick in a good bit sooner than that.

 

But my reading of anomoly charts is still quite elementary-level -- any straws to clutch next week/weekend generally, for drier-weather preferrers**??

 

**(and needers of it, in the SW?)

Edited by William of Walworth
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