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Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->


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Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

gfs takes the 32/33 degree temps for tomorrow further west compared to the 12z!!also saturdays plume has shifted further west again!!

 

Yes, the 12z GFS for Saturday is slightly cooler than the 6z, but I notice that parts of East Anglia reaching 30/31C even on the 12z. Could well be that Saturday is another 30+ day for some. Certainly an interesting period of model watching!

Edited by h2005uk
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Looks a lot fresher for the start of next week on this afternoons UKMO with some rain around as well

 

UW120-21.GIF?01-18UW144-21.GIF?01-18

 

Similar picture from GFS with hints the high may push up again later in the week

 

gfs-0-168.png?12gfs-0-192.png?12

gfs-1-168.png?12gfs-1-192.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 12z shows the weather turning very warm and settled again across the southern half of the UK later next week and through the rest of low res, high pressure keeps the south largely fine and warm. In the meantime, tomorrow is a warm day with mid 20's c in the SE and low 20's c elsewhere with sunny spells and scattered heavy and thundery showers but then Friday and Saturday become very warm and more humid again, Friday looks fine but a band of heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms will spread up across the UK between Friday evening and Saturday morning. Sunday looks fresher and early next week looks mixed but still pleasant enough, temperature wise in the S/E..so, overall, it's a good run with plenty of warm and fine weather, especially in the south.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

An increasingly pleasant and settled and to tonights ECM 12z

 

Recm2161.gif

Recm2401.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Even at an unreliable timeframe , ecm and gfs show low pressure and a cool flow in from the Atlantic, at  T+168 :closedeyes:

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

Even at an unreliable timeframe , ecm and gfs show low pressure and a cool flow in from the Atlantic, at  T+168 :closedeyes:

Only temporary. That's probably the worst chart on the whole ECM run that you've shown.

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Only temporary. That's probably the worst chart on the whole ECM run that you've shown.

Ive shown gfs and ecm at the same timeframe... :closedeyes:

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Posted
  • Location: Barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Barnsley

Even at an unreliable timeframe , ecm and gfs show low pressure and a cool flow in from the Atlantic, at  T+168 :closedeyes:

 

Doesn't last long though, with high pressure shown to return later in FI. A lot of chopping and changing to come though  :closedeyes:

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm / Gfs 12z both show high pressure taking control from later next week and becoming very warm, the Ecm 12z T+240 chart is superb, the Gefs 12z mean is also showing a more settled and warmer outlook from late next week onwards so after a cooler, fresher more unsettled blip early next week, it looks like becoming more settled and progressively warmer. :)

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Wednesday is the freshest day of the week next week for the SE as anyweather's chart shows but before and after that temps don't look too bad

 

Monday and Tuesday around the mid 20's in the SE hight teens / low 20's widely

 

ukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.png

 

Wednesday is the freshest day for England and Wales high teens / low 20's

 

ukmaxtemp.png

 

Thursday temps are back in the mid 20's for the SE high teens / low 20's for most of England and Wales

 

ukmaxtemp.png

 

Friday sees the mid to high 20's quite widely in England and Wales

 

ukmaxtemp.png

 

Then a week Saturday 30c could be on the cards again

 

ukmaxtemp.png

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Doesn't last long though, with high pressure shown to return later in FI. A lot of chopping and changing to come though  :closedeyes:

Yes youre right :D   in Fantasy Island!!! :)

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

Why no out put model discussion for July, which could turn out to be a exceptional month ?

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire

Even at an unreliable timeframe , ecm and gfs show low pressure and a cool flow in from the Atlantic, at  T+168 :closedeyes:

Yep FI will change though ;-)

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Posted
  • Location: Barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Barnsley

Yes youre right :D   in Fantasy Island!!! :)

 

Good to see though right?  Too often we see the heat pushed away and the Atlantic take over. From a personal point of view it is nice to see more than one model keen to reload the warmth from the south later next week. We could all do with a fresher spell of weather but if this is the summer pattern we settle into, with spells of warm/hot weather from the near continent interspersed with thundery outbreaks and fresher interludes, than this summer will be a memorable one :)

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

I wonder if this July will be similar to July 2003. Although it was unsettled at times, the heat stayed over the continent and made some reappearances in the UK. This led to August 2003, and we all know what happened there.

The return to a cooler and more mobile pattern is far from certain, and is at odds with the Met Office extended outlook. It could happen, but there isn't general support for it.

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Posted
  • Location: Boar's Hill, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Interesting weather
  • Location: Boar's Hill, Oxon

Jetstream didn't buckle as extremely as was forecast last week but still very impressive day, only made bearable by the big bottle of water I carried round the safari park, for spraying myself and my students. Superhot.

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Good to see though right?  Too often we see the heat pushed away and the Atlantic take over. From a personal point of view it is nice to see more than one model keen to reload the warmth from the south later next week. We could all do with a fresher spell of weather but if this is the summer pattern we settle into, with spells of warm/hot weather from the near continent interspersed with thundery outbreaks and fresher interludes, than this summer will be a memorable one :)

A very sensible post may I say, yes there is certainly the chance of some continental flow, but equally the same or greater chance that the Atlantic will be the winner, Just look back in history,,, :closedeyes:

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

New thread coming up folks, Please hold off posting for a moment.

 

Thanks, PM.

 

New thread here https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83477-model-output-discussion-1st-july-onwards-18z/

Edited by Polar Maritime
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