north ind ocean arabian sea Cyclonic Storm Ashobaa

[Somerset Squall]

The first tropical cyclone of the 2015 North Indian Ocean season has formed about 500 miles south of Karachi, Pakistan. 01A has winds of 35kts according to JTWC, and is a large storm with sprawling convective bands but also some fairly concentrated convection over the LLCC. The cyclone is heading north on the west side of a ridge to the east. A gradual bend in track towards the west is expected as the ridge reorientates to the north. Intensification is expected as shear is low and waters warm. However, weakening will occur in a few days as the cyclone draws in dry air on approach to land.

[Somerset Squall]

01A has been named Ashobaa by IMD, and has winds of 45kts according to JTWC. Some easterly shear is affecting Ashobaa, evidenced by the tilting of the convective canopy. This shear is expected to ease, allowing further strengthening as Ashobaa tracks into the northernmost Arabian Sea.

[Somerset Squall]

Ashobaa has strengthened slowly over the last 24hrs and has winds of 55kts according to JTWC. Tightly curved banding features surround the LLCC, and some further slight intensification may occur as outflow is good and waters warm. Ashobaa has adopted a more westerly track now, and a landfall in Oman is expected.

[Cakie]

Interesting to see it is heading further west than originally forecast. Although it won't hit where I am, I expect indirect effects on the weather here. Keep up the updates, this is the best information I have here

[Somerset Squall]

Ashobaa's track ended up being much further south and west than predicted, and the cyclone never made landfall, and instead dissipated in the dry air off the coast of Oman.

The cyclone still brought flooding rains to Oman however.