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Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->


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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

Good luck with the weather tomorrow mushy. Need to get that cold front through.

cheers knocks, all indications are that the storms/heavy showers will be out the way by the ceremony, leading to a pleasant sunny warm day.

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Perhaps counter-intuitively, I actually think a renewed hot spell is more likely:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

 

NAO very negative at the moment - earlier in the week the rebound into positive territory was quite strong and I was confident about a return to a more "normal" set up but now I'm less so.

 

The continued negativity suggests a continuation of lower heights to the SW and the possibility of higher heights to the NW - this may allow another pulse of hot air to come up from the continent or may be indicative of a general breakdown to a more LP-dominated scenario with a southerly-tracking jet.

 

The question then becomes - where is the trough going to sit ? Is it going to sit out to the west, digging south and dragging up the hot air or is it going to be near or over the UK keeping us in a less settled regime with rain or showers ? My suspicion is probably neither - there will be LP to the west but it won't be able to dig far enough south to advect the hot air over us so we stay in a warm and moist WSW'ly regime which will never be too bad for the SE but which won't be all that good for the far NW.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

As an aside an illustration how active the Pacific is at the moment.

 

Ryan Maue â€@RyanMaue 7h7 hours ago

Count 6 areas of tropical cyclone activity from Philippines to south of Hawaii and one TUTT

 

Next-gen spectacular Himawari-8 satellite imagery of Western Pacific Nice animation

 

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/himawari-8.asp â€¦

 

 

post-12275-0-40437000-1435910084_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

00z GFS has backed down on heat on the 11th/12th July... for now at least!

The same run has undercooked temps for this morning though - forecast max of 14C in the SE by 9am, but it was already 18C in London and 17C in Essex at 8am.

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

00z GFS has backed down on heat on the 11th/12th July... for now at least!

The same run has undercooked temps for this morning though - forecast max of 14C in the SE by 9am, but it was already 18C in London and 17C in Essex at 8am.

This spell certainly is testing the capabilities of the new higher resolution GFS, which so far temperature wise isn't doing fantastically well. Edited by Backtrack
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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON FRIDAY JULY 3RD 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure across the UK will move away NE as a thundery trough of Low pressure moves North across the UK tonight and tomorrow followed by a cooler and fresher SW airflow.

 


 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and fine weather but occasional rain at times especially in the NW. Chance of thundery showers at times too towards the SE. Generally rather warm.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the Jet Stream flowing across the Atlantic towards Biscay then turning NE over the UK. This pattern persists for a time before the flow veers West to East and possibly NW to SE over us later next week. In the outer reaches of the run the flow weakens in situ for a while before rejuvenating across the UK in a NE'ly direction in two weeks time.

 


 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows the very warm conditions remaining tantalizingly close to Southern Britain through the next 5 days or so while the rest of the UK more quickly become cooler and more changeable with some rain or showers at times in an Atlantic Westerly flow. The cooler air finally reaches the far South later next week while pressure rises again from the West. The second week then shows High pressure building and relaxing again periodically from the South ensuring that the weather remains generally quite settled in the South and very warm at times with any more unsettled conditions remaining most likely over the North. 

 


 


 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run follows a similar route although from the onset of the second week it is more bullish about High pressure settling things down across all of the UK then with some very warm and sunny conditions developing for all regions throughout Week 2

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters look good this morning with the vast majority of members suggesting that the UK will lie under the influence of High pressure from the Azores with just a handful of members today going fo something a little more unsettled from off the Atlantic.

 


 

UKMO UKMO today shows weakening Low pressure across the North early next week with a slack Westerly flow across the UK. Pressure remains High to the South so the patchy rain and showers across the UK will be most prolific for the North with a hint of fine and warm conditions developing back across the UK later in the week looking possible.

 


 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts support fresher air on a SW breeze through the early days of next week with troughs to the West threatening some outbreaks of more persistent rain by Tuesday, especially in the West.

 


 

GEM GEM today shows a more changeable phase under cooler conditions on a Westerly breeze early next week. Pressure then rises with some fine and sunny weather for a time across the South and East where it is likely to become warm before a return to cooler Atlantic Westerlies is shown again for all to end the run.

 


 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a cooler and more showery phase early next week but this run tooshows High pressure re-establishing across at least Southern areas later next week with increasinag amounts of warm or very warm sunshine while any cooler and more unsettled conditions become confined to the far North.

 


 

ECM ECM today continues the theme that cureently lies across the UK with spells of warm or very warm and sunny weather interrupted at times by thundery rain as cooler air invades from the Atlantic only for the cycle to repeat again thereafter. It does show a briefly more general cool off early next week as winds switch West or NW for a time.

 


 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night continues to look good with a ridge from the Azores close to the South of Britain and with warm uppers it looks like the chances of some very warm air still over the South looks high.

 


 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend today looks in favour of plenty of fine and warm weather likely still with just brief interruptions from cooler and more showery phases, these chiefly in the North.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.1 pts followed by UKMO at 95.2 pts and GFS at 94.8. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 84.3 pts with GFS at 81.6 pts and UKMO at 81.4 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 48.5 over 45.4. Then at Day 10 ECM remains ahead of GFS at 31.7 pts to 28.0 pts.

 


 


 


 


 

 

MY THOUGHTS I'm overall not unhappy with the output this morning as it looks like the weather will remain quite slow moving with regard to changes over the coming weeks. True there is a strong suggestion that the weather will cool down for all early next week as winds tilt more West or NW for a time with some showery rain about too but this only serves to pump up new High pressure across the UK through the middle of next week to return fine and in places very warm weather again especially towards the South and East. I am glad to see that the suggestions of yesterday from ECM for High pressure to be positioned to the SW and a NW flow to become established has been dropped for now with the High pressure areas remaining or moving to a position to the South, SE or East and permitting warm feeds of Southerly or SW winds across the UK. It looks unlikely that temperatures will reach the dizzy heights of recently though with the mid to high 20'sC looking more likely as there looks to be too much of a SW aspect to the wind to present a true Spanish Plume type event this side of the Channel in the next couple of weeks but nevertheless as Atlantic fronts move up against these high temperatures there is plenty of chance for thundery showers to break out at times especially towards the SE. So all in all reasons to be optimistic from the models this morning with South and East of the UK best as usual but even the North and West will share in some very pleasantly warm conditions at times between the showery phases likely there.

 

Next update from 08:00 Saturday July 4th 2015

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

00z GFS has backed down on heat on the 11th/12th July... for now at least!

The same run has undercooked temps for this morning though - forecast max of 14C in the SE by 9am, but it was already 18C in London and 17C in Essex at 8am.

 

Well it has corrected it by 12

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

ECM again settles things down later next week

 

Recm1441.gifRecm1681.gifRecm1921.gif

 

Temperatures back into the high 20's in the south for Wimbledon finals weekend (mid 20's further north) and quite possibly beyond the weekend

 

Recm1922.gifRecm2162.gifRecm2402.gif

 

UKMO also showing hints of somthing drier and warmer towards the end of its run

 

Rukm1441.gif

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON FRIDAY JULY 3RD 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure across the UK will move away NE as a thundery trough of Low pressure moves North across the UK tonight and tomorrow followed by a cooler and fresher SW airflow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and fine weather but occasional rain at times especially in the NW. Chance of thundery showers at times too towards the SE. Generally rather warm.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the Jet Stream flowing across the Atlantic towards Biscay then turning NE over the UK. This pattern persists for a time before the flow veers West to East and possibly NW to SE over us later next week. In the outer reaches of the run the flow weakens in situ for a while before rejuvenating across the UK in a NE'ly direction in two weeks time.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows the very warm conditions remaining tantalizingly close to Southern Britain through the next 5 days or so while the rest of the UK more quickly become cooler and more changeable with some rain or showers at times in an Atlantic Westerly flow. The cooler air finally reaches the far South later next week while pressure rises again from the West. The second week then shows High pressure building and relaxing again periodically from the South ensuring that the weather remains generally quite settled in the South and very warm at times with any more unsettled conditions remaining most likely over the North. 

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run follows a similar route although from the onset of the second week it is more bullish about High pressure settling things down across all of the UK then with some very warm and sunny conditions developing for all regions throughout Week 2

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters look good this morning with the vast majority of members suggesting that the UK will lie under the influence of High pressure from the Azores with just a handful of members today going fo something a little more unsettled from off the Atlantic.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO today shows weakening Low pressure across the North early next week with a slack Westerly flow across the UK. Pressure remains High to the South so the patchy rain and showers across the UK will be most prolific for the North with a hint of fine and warm conditions developing back across the UK later in the week looking possible.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts support fresher air on a SW breeze through the early days of next week with troughs to the West threatening some outbreaks of more persistent rain by Tuesday, especially in the West.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today shows a more changeable phase under cooler conditions on a Westerly breeze early next week. Pressure then rises with some fine and sunny weather for a time across the South and East where it is likely to become warm before a return to cooler Atlantic Westerlies is shown again for all to end the run.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a cooler and more showery phase early next week but this run tooshows High pressure re-establishing across at least Southern areas later next week with increasinag amounts of warm or very warm sunshine while any cooler and more unsettled conditions become confined to the far North.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM today continues the theme that cureently lies across the UK with spells of warm or very warm and sunny weather interrupted at times by thundery rain as cooler air invades from the Atlantic only for the cycle to repeat again thereafter. It does show a briefly more general cool off early next week as winds switch West or NW for a time.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night continues to look good with a ridge from the Azores close to the South of Britain and with warm uppers it looks like the chances of some very warm air still over the South looks high.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend today looks in favour of plenty of fine and warm weather likely still with just brief interruptions from cooler and more showery phases, these chiefly in the North.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.1 pts followed by UKMO at 95.2 pts and GFS at 94.8. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 84.3 pts with GFS at 81.6 pts and UKMO at 81.4 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 48.5 over 45.4. Then at Day 10 ECM remains ahead of GFS at 31.7 pts to 28.0 pts.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS I'm overall not unhappy with the output this morning as it looks like the weather will remain quite slow moving with regard to changes over the coming weeks. True there is a strong suggestion that the weather will cool down for all early next week as winds tilt more West or NW for a time with some showery rain about too but this only serves to pump up new High pressure across the UK through the middle of next week to return fine and in places very warm weather again especially towards the South and East. I am glad to see that the suggestions of yesterday from ECM for High pressure to be positioned to the SW and a NW flow to become established has been dropped for now with the High pressure areas remaining or moving to a position to the South, SE or East and permitting warm feeds of Southerly or SW winds across the UK. It looks unlikely that temperatures will reach the dizzy heights of recently though with the mid to high 20'sC looking more likely as there looks to be too much of a SW aspect to the wind to present a true Spanish Plume type event this side of the Channel in the next couple of weeks but nevertheless as Atlantic fronts move up against these high temperatures there is plenty of chance for thundery showers to break out at times especially towards the SE. So all in all reasons to be optimistic from the models this morning with South and East of the UK best as usual but even the North and West will share in some very pleasantly warm conditions at times between the showery phases likely there.

 

Next update from 08:00 Saturday July 4th 2015

Gibby, you always put a lot of thought and effort in to your daily reports. Always a good read on here with a balanced view in your final analysis. As you say , looking good for most with the warm continental air mass not too far away but the predicted positioning of the pressure systems , as you will know can provide a surprise , now and then. Keep up the good work.

C

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

This spell certainly is testing the capabilities of the new higher resolution GFS, which so far temperature wise isn't doing fantastically well.

.... on the other hand its consistently predicted the breakdown overnight tonight, clearing by tomorrow morning (on the precip charts, which ive been watching all week for personal reasons). this is fairly certain now, after first being predicted last sunday... think thats pretty impressive in such a mobile pattern.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 6z shows next week becoming unseasonably cool for the time of year with northerly winds and early next week looks unsettled with rain and showers but as next week goes on, the unsettled weather retreats northwards with the south gradually drying up with more in the way of sunshine. Looking further ahead, high pressure builds in from the west/southwest and our weather settles down and gradually warms up through low res, later in the run it becomes very warm / hot in the south. Next week would be a shock to the system following the very hot and humid weather but in the longer run, the fine and very warm weather returns to most of the uk.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

GEFS shows the 06Z op run as one of the coldest runs on offer:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=306&y=141&run=6&ext=fr&mode=0&sort=0

(see GFS on right hand side)

Certainly the amount of green on the table is now diminishing rapidly for the period 9-17 July - mostly yellows and oranges - yellows are uppers of 10C or above, which at this time of year more or less guarantees maxs in the mid 20s, even high 20s at times in the SE. 12 runs get to the 15C upper mark during the period, so 30C may eventually appear again.

To cut a long story short, beware of runs keeping us cold in the long-term - the clever money is still on above average, certainly in southern parts.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

.... on the other hand its consistently predicted the breakdown overnight tonight, clearing by tomorrow morning (on the precip charts, which ive been watching all week for personal reasons). this is fairly certain now, after first being predicted last sunday... think thats pretty impressive in such a mobile pattern.

 

Yes looking at the daily updates that Gibby does, GFS has not overtaken ECMWF, other than now and then, but it is much closer in most time frames, other than beyond about 192h, than it was prior to its update. Well that is how I see it?

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

There is good news from the GEFS 6z mean, firstly, unlike the op there is no northerly flow next week dragging temperatures down to well below average, the recovery starts much earlier with pressure rising, becoming more settled, especially in the south and temperatures gradually into the mid to high 20's celsius.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Which ties in nicely with what Tamara was saying, I think? 

 

Something, probably ENSO, has pushed blobs of heat eastwards, near the Equator...Ergo an increased likelihood of plumes in this part of the world??

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

I could easily see another very warm spell develop at the end of next week, again we see another tropical system eject into the polar jet off the eastern seaboard.

gfs-0-72.png?12

Entering stage left

 

Now what this does is it begins to drag colder air back into the central Atlantic causing the low to deepen, in turn the Azores high gets pushed north east towards the UK, this is working against the prevailing longwave set up with the Greenland high trying to pull cooler northerly winds over the UK. Which one will win out? At the moment the warmer solution does seem to win out in the consensus after a brief cooler blip. That said this could all change, for hotter or colder.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

A similar run to the 00Z taking an overview with perhaps more transient ridging later. Bearing in mind the general westerly one can get a general idea of the pattern from a couple of 850mb streaming and temp charts and a 500mb. I agree with Cs that one could see short very warm spells in this fluid pattern.

Charts weatherbell

 

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 12z shows a good recovery in conditions from the west during the second half of next week with high pressure building in from the atlantic and slowly migrating eastwards, although temperatures drop back to average /slightly below briefly around midweek, they soon start to rise again towards the mid and then high 20's celsius, especially in the south with a generally quieter more settled spell which then continues into the early part of the following week.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

ECM T144/T168 tonight - after one or two more average and perhaps wetter days, all seems primed again for a plume. A bit more progressive than other runs with the positioning of the Atlantic low so "more runs needed", but its back to the 30C days in this run I would think.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 12z mean shows we are on track for another increasingly warm and settled spell from later next week onwards with high pressure building in from the west and then slowly migrating east, once that happens, we again start to import warmer air from the continent...this looks better than the 6z mean to me, there are growing signs that for at least the southern half of the UK, most of july could be largely fine and warm / very warm, the Azores high looks like being our friend.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Looking at the GFS ens 12z outputs the pattern is quite slow moving with a tendency to maintain a mid-Atlantic trough for at least another week.As the trough elongates east-west early next week this will cool things off as we see more of an Atlantic sourced flow.

The 500hPa charts show this followed by a pusn ne from the Azores high which may well inject some more heat to the south from the continent.

post-2026-0-81514500-1435952056_thumb.pnpost-2026-0-06949000-1435952067_thumb.pnpost-2026-0-29227100-1435952079_thumb.pn

A glance at the 3 day temperature charts show a warm up later next week after the week end cool down.

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Not seeing another plume just yet because of a somewhat flatter looking longwave pattern but the first half of July not looking at all bad overall with plenty of decent weather to be had from the ridging of the Azores high from time to time.

As ever those further south favoured for the best conditions in this setup.

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Models suggest a return to normal conditions and actually a cooler than normal regime with a northerly platform...not what some here have forecast....British mid Summer started with a plume but seems a return to normal conditions prevails.

Winds from a northerly quadrant are not normal conditions??

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Models suggest a return to normal conditions and actually a cooler than normal regime with a northerly platform...not what some here have forecast....British mid Summer started with a plume but seems a return to normal conditions prevails.

The cooler than normal regime as you put it is only a blip which lasts a few days before the weather starts to warm up again and become more settled due to the increasing influence of the Azores high!

Edited by Frosty.
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  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Models suggest a return to normal conditions and actually a cooler than normal regime with a northerly platform...not what some here have forecast....British mid Summer started with a plume but seems a return to normal conditions prevails.

 

Which models are going for a cooler than normal regime and what on earth do you mean by a northerly platform?. If it's what I think it means that statement is incorrect.

 

I think Phils post above is just about on the money supported by the GEFS anomaly tonight which slowly moves the Atlantic trough and Azores ridge east giving a few days of above average temps without going overboard.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

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Edited by knocker
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