western pacific Typhoon Linfa

[Somerset Squall]

Another tropical depression has formed, east of rhe Philippines. 10W has winds of 25kts, and convection that is displaced slightly west of the LLCC due to moderate shear. However, as waters are warm and shear not destructively high, 10W should become a typhoon on approach to Luzon.

[Somerset Squall]

The depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Linfa by JMA, with winds of 35kts. Linfa is still a sheared system with the majority of the convection displaced to the west of the LLCC. The LLCC remains just tucked underneath the east side of the convective canopy however. Further strengthening is expected as the storm approaches Luzon. On approach, the track forecst becomes complicated, as Linfa begins to interact with Typhoon Chan-hom to the east. Linfa is expected to turn northwards in reponse to the interaction, and pass just northest of Luzon. However, the track forecst is uncertain, as tropical cyclone interactions complicate things.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Somerset Squall]

Linfa has strengthened to 45kts. Shear is still affecting Linfa, with the deepest convection still displaced southwest of the LLCC.

Well the last sentence of my last post is definitely true. The models are all over the place with where Linfa will actually go long term. The storm itself has jogged much further west than expected, and is now expected to make landfall in northeast Luzon. Thereafter, the track of Linfa depends on how much the storm interacts with Chan-hom to the northeast. Some models forecast greater interaction and a recurve to the northeast. Others indicate less interaction, leaving Linfa to drift into the South China Sea. We shall see what happens!

[Somerset Squall]

Linfa made landfall in northeast Luzon with 50kt winds. The storm has moved west, and emerged off the west coast. Winds dropped over land, but Linfa has already responded to moving over the warm waters of the South China sea, and has restrengthened to 50kts once more. The long awaited north turn should occur very soon, and Linfa is forecast to approach southern Taiwan. There are track uncertainties as Tropical Storm Chan-hom gets closer to Linfa from the east. Linfa is forecast to peak at 65kts according to JTWC, before shear causes Linfa to weaken on approach to Taiwan.

[Somerset Squall]

Linfa weakened as shear affected the storm, but this has since eased, allowing Linfa to attain a 50kt intensity for the third time. Track forecast has shifted west, and it seems that Linfa won't really interact with Chan-hom now, and will instead pass southwest of Taiwan and make landfall northeast of Hong Kong.

[Somerset Squall]

Linfa is now at it's strongest, with winds of 60kts. The storm has developed a shallow central dense overcast, with an eye feature. Time is running out for strengthening as landfall will occur soon.

[Somerset Squall]

The eye has continued to clear, and Linfa has become a typhoon, with winds of 65kts.

[Somerset Squall]

Linfa moved inland and has passed north of Hong Kong. JTWC have issued their last advisory as Linfa continues to decay over land.

 

Linfa was certainly hard to predict. Initial forecasts had Linfa passing east of Luzon, but instead Linfa crossed Luzon and moved north to the west of the country. Then, landfall was expected in Taiwan, but instead Linfa passed to the southwest and made landfall in Southern China instead. Similar track errors have occured with Typhoon Chan-hom too, as it has stubbornly headed further west than expected.

 

So, one of the 3 simultaneous typhoons in the Western Pacific this week has gone. Chan-hom and Nangka remain, for now.