Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes

[A.J]

A couple of low rumbles of thunder, but generally just periods of moderate to heavy rain here on the south coast......the camping gear is being packed up and we're off home shortly as soon as the current band of rain moves off

[Harry]

image.jpg

The channel is killing those storms... one by one.

I don't believe the channel has much to do with it...the energy and high instability is simply not here but across in France/Benelux...they still have he southerly plume while we have more stable, fresher Atlantic air. This is evident as the storms are losing activity before they reach the channel.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Did anyone even notice the latest issued Met Office weather warming? Covers whole of England, Wales and Southern Scotland ooh.

[Dean E]

image.jpg

The channel is killing those storms... one by one.

 

 

I don't believe the channel has much to do with it...the energy and high instability is simply not here but across in France/Benelux...they still have he southerly plume while we have more stable, fresher Atlantic air. This is evident as the storms are losing activity before they reach the channel.

 

I agree, we've lost the heat and humidity (the higher values anyway) of yesterday and you've got to remember these storms are forming part of a Cold front, which has stabilised the atmosphere somewhat during the early hours of this morning. Tomorrow appears to have more potential with the humid plume returning for the weekend and a occluded front forming over Northern France, enhancing the energy. 

 

However as someone posted the GFS is hinting at CAPE and LI levels rising later, perhaps a earlier pushback of that humid ploom?

Edited July 2, 2015 by SnowMania

[Ben Sainsbury]

Therefore by the looks of things the latest GFS 6z model is indicating instability stretching all across Southern England just looking most potent and heaviest precipitation across SE England!

[Karl83]

look at this beauty taken around midnight last night in boro

 

Fantastic photo!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Just feels unfair that we basically suffered the highest humidity and temperatures down south and it just gets blown away with not even a faint whiff of thunder.

Actually downright annoying if I'm honest. Now we have to warm up again from scratch :-(

[Harry]

Did anyone even notice the latest issued Met Office weather warming? Covers whole of England, Wales and Southern Scotland ooh.

Indeed, Friday has been signalling potential now for several days. Some models hesitant about the extent of any outbreaks while others show explosive development.

Two words of caution:

First, both Estofex and MetO have expressed uncertainty about affected areas and timing.

Second, high instability is only modelled for the SE quarter (currently!) so I would not based on the current charts expect as much thundery activity further north and west. The models however are changeable, but at present I think the MetO have thrown too wide a blanket for thunderstorms - just my opinion though, as ever when I'm being pessimistic, I hope I'm wrong.

Edited July 2, 2015 by Harry

[i luv snow]

Some lovely pictures of the action from up here last night

 

http://news.stv.tv/scotland/1323942-storms-create-spectacular-displays-of-lightning-over-scotland/

 

Awesome, some similarly great shots from Manchester:

 

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/manchester-lightning-storm-thunder-pictures-9569812

[Daniel*]

Good chance of 30C in Norfolk with Norwich at 26C to the east the warmth is still holding on. Aberdeen is also doing well I assume they're well sheltered from winds off the Atlantic with mountains to west.

[Harry]

Just feels unfair that we basically suffered the highest humidity and temperatures down south and it just gets blown away with not even a faint whiff of thunder.

Actually downright annoying if I'm honest. Now we have to warm up again from scratch :-(

Not the first time though FBFBe...let's not count our chickens just yet (as we said to the moaners yesterday) and keep all hopes on the early hours of Saturday

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Strike over the channel just to whind us up a bit more.. 

[Harry]

FYI - rogue strike in the Channel.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Not the first time though FBFBe...let's not count our chickens just yet (as we said to the moaners yesterday) and keep all hopes on the early hours of Saturday

This isn't a moan - per se - more a disappointment that we in the south suffered two of the muggiest nights ever and it just goes away without anything happening.

Mind you we sat out last night in the local beer garden and it was like being on holiday. Lovely until you try and sleep!

BTW I am aware we in the south weren't forecast storms and that's not my issue - I'm fully aware we have a great chance tomo - lets just hope they are blinders! (Although not in the literal sense ;-) )

Edited July 2, 2015 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[ancientsolar]

Intensifying rain over South Wales.. to wind me up -.-

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Never ceases to amaze me, that Channel is unbelievable. What is stopping these storms from the simple principle of making it over 90 miles of water? But from the North of Scotland, they made it all the way to the Faroe Islands! The Channel is cursed. Enough said!

[saint]

Never ceases to amaze me, that Channel is unbelievable. What is stopping these storms from the simple principle of making it over 90 miles of water? But from the North of Scotland, they made it all the way to the Faroe Islands! The Channel is cursed. Enough said!

 

Don't think it's the channel in this situation, more that there is less energy/cape etc over Southern England than there is in Northern France. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Don't think it's the channel in this situation, more that there is less energy/cape etc over Southern England than there is in Northern France. 

That will always be the case though! Always will be. Love the way that they either die as soon as they step foot over that piece of water, or just skirt around it through Dieppe/Le Havre, only to blow up like a fuel station over Lille/Belgium. Exact same thing happened on the last attempt, and will probably on the next too. Wouldn't be surprised if tomorrow saw the exact same thing happen!

[Harry]

Never ceases to amaze me, that Channel is unbelievable. What is stopping these storms from the simple principle of making it over 90 miles of water? But from the North of Scotland, they made it all the way to the Faroe Islands! The Channel is cursed. Enough said!

Surrey posted the key charts earlier...the heat and humidity is in place over N France (product of their southerly winds).

A kink in the isobars associated with the Low to our west introduced slightly fresher Atlantic air. If all goes to plan then that pool of goodness a few hundred miles away should briefly return tomorrow night for some and potentially go bang. Still a good 36 hours until that time however.

[StormChaseUK]

Some great storms last night to the north, wonderful pictures. 

 

Awful timing for the south, it really is all about the "timing"   if this area from France had moved up 6pm last night would be very different.

 

Tomorrow night does look better for the south though, better timing, more heat energy ahead of time.

[P-M]

I am trying to upload a video from last nights storm but it is saying I don't have permission to upload this type of file - it is below 10mb can anyone help?

 

 

[Lauren]

One thing I've learnt from all of these thundery spells, ever since I joined Netweather is never just expect to get something. It sounds stupid, I know, but I feel that this is why many people get dissappointed after these thundery setups - they believed that a storm will always hit them no matter what.

 

Thunderstorms are very hit and miss. Some places can take an absolute pounding by two or more storms in the space of a couple of hours, but then just ten minutes down the road, you may find that there hasn't even been a drop of rain or a rumble of thunder.

This x a million. I've found taking a que sera attitude much better. You can't get disappointed that way.

[Harry]

Some of the rain just moving through had a more convective element on the rear flank so perhaps something to keep a sly eye on as it trundles NNE.

Sun starting to emerge.

[Harry]

NMM-WRF 2KM 6z rolling out...pointing towards some pretty sharp precip and potential storms I'd suggest in a rough line from say Wrexham to Newcastle (what a few days for you lot if that materialises!!!).

Isolated in nature so likely to be hit and miss!!

 

 

Note that this chart is for 9pm.

Edited July 2, 2015 by Harry

[Mapantz]

The extended skew-t shows a little bit of instability here, in a few hours, as indicated by the NMM. It's quite possible for showers to have some thunder, around the South coast during the early afternoon.

What is interesting about tomorrow eve's potential, is that the NMM 3KM is at loggerheads with the NMM 4KM, and the GFS. The 3 shows potential in the southwest to start with, then moving and developing north, across the Midlands. The 4 however, shows storms affecting the Southwest in to South Wales, roughly Dorset > West. The GFS wants to graze something bigger for southern counties, roughly Dorset > East.

So what we can conclude is, look at the radar tomorrow.