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Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes

Supacell

By Supacell
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

I am trying to upload a video from last nights storm but it is saying I don't have permission to upload this type of file - it is below 10mb can anyone help?

You'll have to use a 3rd party site. Video uploads aren't supported here.

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Spikecollie Accomplished

Spikecollie

Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
Posted

Just been up to my local Post Office at Thwaites Brow. It's like someone's been shooting at the cars. Peppered with dents, 10s in some cases. The Postmaster's conservatory roof is full of holes, and the guy in front of me was telling him that both his and his wife's cars had their windscreens smashed.

 

As I always say - be careful what you wish for...

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ChezWeather Experienced

ChezWeather

Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
Posted (edited)

A good day by all accounts for Northern England and Scotland yesterday

The NE looking pretty similar to how it did on June 28th 2012.

 

Comparing this chart to the strike map for June 28th 2012 really shows how crazy that day was though! Seems as yesterdays storms were nothing short of amazing. 

post-17481-0-88863300-1435834737_thumb.j

post-17481-0-44366500-1435834751_thumb.j

Edited by ChezWeather
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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

The extended skew-t shows a little bit of instability here, in a few hours, as indicated by the NMM. It's quite possible for showers to have some thunder, around the South coast during the early afternoon.

What is interesting about tomorrow eve's potential, is that the NMM 3KM is at loggerheads with the NMM 4KM, and the GFS. The 3 shows potential in the southwest to start with, then moving and developing north, across the Midlands. The 4 however, shows storms affecting the Southwest in to South Wales, roughly Dorset > West. The GFS wants to graze something bigger for southern counties, roughly Dorset > East.

So what we can conclude is, look at the radar tomorrow. :)

 

Indeed...still some model divergence...however, many do seem to now be pointing towards an explosion of activity late evening over the Channel, spreading northwards. NMM-WRF and GFS on the same wavelength for some 1000 - 1500J/Kg MUCAPE (near 2,500 on NMM) spilling into C/S/SE England. Both GFS/NMM also thinking that SBCAPE and MUCAPE will begin to spill in from the East across EA, Midlands and S England during the afternoon, though it seems unlikely this will trigger. But it does suggest perhaps more extensive moisture and instability feeding in.

Just been up to my local Post Office at Thwaites Brow. It's like someone's been shooting at the cars. Peppered with dents, 10s in some cases. The Postmaster's conservatory roof is full of holes, and the guy in front of me was telling him that both his and his wife's cars had their windscreens smashed.

 

As I always say - be careful what you wish for...

 

I made that comment a few weeks ago - while I love supercells and their stunning features, I'd rather not have them over my house :D

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StormChaseUK Community Regular

StormChaseUK

Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
Posted

NMM-WRF 2KM 6z rolling out...pointing towards some pretty sharp precip and potential storms I'd suggest in a rough line from say Wrexham to Newcastle (what a few days for you lot if that materialises!!!).

Isolated in nature so likely to be hit and miss!!

 

attachicon.gifnmm_uk1-1-13-0.png

 

Note that this chart is for 9pm.

That looks like a radar grab from about 10pm last night :D I know it's not but the areas seem oddly similar.

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Carl46Wrexham Rising Star

Carl46Wrexham

Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
Posted (edited)

NMM-WRF 2KM 6z rolling out...pointing towards some pretty sharp precip and potential storms I'd suggest in a rough line from say Wrexham to Newcastle (what a few days for you lot if that materialises!!!).

Isolated in nature so likely to be hit and miss!!

attachicon.gifnmm_uk1-1-13-0.png

Note that this chart is for 9pm.

As StormChaseUK has already said, the similarity to last night is uncanny. Edited by Carl46Wrexham
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matty40s Maestro

matty40s

Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
Posted (edited)

Looks like Dover is about to get hit

They will stop the storm and search it for illegals....

Edited by matty40s
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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

Lots of showers making it over. Do we have a report from underneath?

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted

They will stop the storm and search it for illegals....

lol, can here the rumbles from that lot, seems to be getting slightly louder now too.

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted

It is official NE England is the new Lincolnshire meanwhile South-East is the Sonaran Desert what buggers me is we've had to endure a awful lot of heat and it was not utilised. It makes me wonder how severe it would have been if Southern England were In with a shout. I'd love to experience a supercell myself every day you live is not assured might as well have some danger fun. I think this thread would be extinct if people never got excited this whole thread moves fast via emotion not necessarily by facts.

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Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
Posted

Early heads up on where probable Estofex Level 2 will be tomorrow into Saturday.

 

post-24-0-84274500-1435836945_thumb.png

 

 

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SnowBear Maestro

SnowBear

Posted
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
Posted

A report on the BBC on the storms last night night, perhaps before wishing for severe storms,spare a thought for the damage they can do and the lives of the people suffer that damage. ;-)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-33359066

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

Early heads up on where probable Estofex Level 2 will be tomorrow into Saturday.

 

attachicon.gif11402931_816850761768160_8827505707301161398_n.png

 

Where is this chart from Paul? Are you predicting an extension to the Estofex Lvl 2?

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

Warning out now for the cold front. Sounds like they're expecting a squall line from the wording.

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted (edited)

LMFAO!!! If that happened I would eat my hat..

 

Well, Surrey - some of the NMM runs are showing some explosive development across C/S/SE England and EA late Friday into early Saturday, with indications of MUCAPE in the region of 1,500 - 2,500 with LIs across the far SE of -7 to -8, more widely -4 to -6.

Warning out now for the cold front. Sounds like they're expecting a squall line from the wording.

 

Looking at the UKMO projected rainfall, thats what their model is suggesting.

Edited by Harry
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Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
Posted

Yep as Harry says, this is an evolving situation, would not write anything off at the moment, atmosphere is fluid as you all know, it only needs a favourable push of moisture and Cape into the Uk earlier than expected and things probably will change

 

For the record I am still going with a Level 2 for Northern Coasts of France and a bigger Level 1 over the Uk.

 

We shall see tonight about 10pm I guess

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

Yep as Harry says, this is an evolving situation, would not write anything off at the moment, atmosphere is fluid as you all know, it only needs a favourable push of moisture and Cape into the Uk earlier than expected and things probably will change

 

For the record I am still going with a Level 2 for Northern Coasts of France and a bigger Level 1 over the Uk.

 

We shall see tonight about 10pm I guess

 

Some of the NMM and GFS runs seem to suggest this, Paul

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

WRF-NMM 5KM 6z out...bit of an upgrade in my view though still relatively restricted to the SE quarter IMO.

 

Saturday 0100

 

post-3790-0-10962300-1435837817_thumb.pn

 

post-3790-0-28682800-1435837831_thumb.pn

 

Saturday 0400

 

post-3790-0-14179300-1435837845_thumb.pn

 

post-3790-0-62856400-1435837854_thumb.pn

 

Saturday 0700

 

post-3790-0-48383700-1435837867_thumb.pn

 

post-3790-0-81759700-1435837876_thumb.pn

 

It is the briefest of plumes, almost a glancing punch...could be a smacker though :D

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Rickoza Contributor

Rickoza

Posted
  • Location: Motherwell
  • Location: Motherwell
Posted

Looks promising.  Hopefully that'll hold and we'll at last see some interesting action over here.  Haven't seen a decent storm in our area since 2006!

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StormChaseUK Community Regular

StormChaseUK

Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
Posted

Not very scientific :) I know.. but as a general rule of thumb, I would expect thunder to be in places tomorrow night that have not had that disturbance in the atmosphere as yet, so perhaps Gloucester/Reading/London into EA.

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Karl83 Community Regular

Karl83

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
Posted

Early heads up on where probable Estofex Level 2 will be tomorrow into Saturday.

 

attachicon.gif11402931_816850761768160_8827505707301161398_n.png

If that's the case I will be heading NE to chase.

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