Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

WRF-NMM 5KM 6z out...bit of an upgrade in my view though still relatively restricted to the SE quarter IMO.

 

Saturday 0100

 

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Saturday 0400

 

nmmuk-1-44-0.png

 

nmmuk-28-44-0.png

 

Saturday 0700

 

nmmuk-1-47-0.png

 

nmmuk-28-47-0.png

 

It is the briefest of plumes, almost a glancing punch...could be a smacker though

Damn that looks good. I'm not going for the bait just yet though! Nowcasting will be rife into tomorrow evening.

[Wilxy]

If that's the case I will be heading NE to chase.

 

I'm thinking of driving to somewhere say Oxford/Newbury area and waiting for developments there and then seeing how things pan out.

[Karl83]

I'm thinking of driving to somewhere say Oxford/Newbury area and waiting for developments there and then seeing how things pan out.

See you there then!

 

I'll cover my car in bubble wrap before I leave, just in case lol. You'll know who I am if you see me!

Edited July 2, 2015 by Karl83

[tcc]

Early heads up on where probable Estofex Level 2 will be tomorrow into Saturday.

 

11402931_816850761768160_8827505707301161398_n.png

 

Well thanks Paul, how am I able to contain my excitement now!

[P-M]

A report on the BBC on the storms last night night, perhaps before wishing for severe storms,spare a thought for the damage they can do and the lives of the people suffer that damage. ;-)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-33359066

 

 

Yup I was without power for 5 hours yesterday but I would do it all again to see what I seen - never ever seen golf ball sized hall almost chunks of ice falling from the sky was amazing but you are right can be very dangerous.

[Wilxy]

See you there then!

 

I'll cover my car in bubble wrap before I leave, just in case lol. You'll know who I am if you see me!

 

Ill be the one with a huge aerial on the car hoping it attracts lightning strikes! probably not a good idea if i am honest but the ideas are running out.

[Staffordshire]

Absolutely gutted i decided not to head out yesterday due to the situation looking like a bust around 6pm

So the North got pummelled by storms, whilst the South bathed in sun and us midlanders got stuck with cloud... Pfft

Now Friday nights affair looks like being confined to the east, not sure whether to head down the a5 for this, will it be anything like last night, or less powerful?

[Neilsouth]

Thunderstorm to my east, south east! I was just on the edge and the rain drops were tropical

 

It is very muggy though and people still in t-shirts

[Harry]

Damn that looks good. I'm not going for the bait just yet though! Nowcasting will be rife into tomorrow evening.

 

Latest Beeb forecast suggesting the destabilising front could be further West...still all up in the air!!!

[StormChaseUK]

I'm thinking of driving to somewhere say Oxford/Newbury area and waiting for developments there and then seeing how things pan out.

Oxford /Newbury seems like a reasonable area, especially any high ground facing east.

[dave48]

Severe Thunderstorm anyone?

 

[Wilxy]

Oxford /Newbury seems like a reasonable area, especially any high ground facing east.

Donnington castle has a good view a believe ill take a closer look into good view points in the area.

[Harry]

Severe Thunderstorm anyone?

 

 

Like the pretty colours lol. Markedly like the Estofex Lvl 2 shape and location.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

There's a hill near me looks East over Dunsfold and there's a nice bench there too! Might be my vista sorted for tomo :-)

[dragon falls]

Is that a squall line heading though Cardiff way lashing down now

[StormChaseUK]

Donnington castle has a good view a believe ill take a closer look into good view points in the area.

I will be watching how things pan out at the office until evening, then driving to Oxford.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Is that a squall line heading though Cardiff way lashing down now

I do have my eye on this because it's heading towards me see if it develops.

[Harry]

I am trying to access the MetO website and it keeps coming up as a download....anyone else have this problem?

[dragon falls]

Same here watching it rain is really coming down now no thunder feels muggy

[fazer76]

Absolutely gutted i decided not to head out yesterday due to the situation looking like a bust around 6pm

So the North got pummelled by storms, whilst the South bathed in sun and us midlanders got stuck with cloud... Pfft

Now Friday nights affair looks like being confined to the east, not sure whether to head down the a5 for this, will it be anything like last night, or less powerful?

Yes many central southern areas missed out. Storms erupted just north of the patch and well we all know what happened next.

Friday pm has every chance of being quite nasty in places. From an IMBY point of view would prefer to see mega storms develop or arrive in the Bristol Avon area before trundling NNE. Local hail, frequent lighting and torrential rain a distinct possibility again. Where and when remains the million dollar question as nowcasting is the more sensible option for those who's expectations can sometimes outweigh the reality lol.

For the record, yesterday was a bust so all eyes for the next possible thundery episode.

Edited July 2, 2015 by fazer76

[pip22]

Showers have breaking out here, not long before another one is born.

Edited July 2, 2015 by pip22

[Wilxy]

I will be watching how things pan out at the office until evening, then driving to Oxford.

 

Oxford is good because its quite central and can decide from there what is going to happen.

[SnowBear]

I am trying to access the MetO website and it keeps coming up as a download....anyone else have this problem?

All ok for me, both mobile site and desktop site showing as they should.

[matty40s]

Is that a squall line heading though Cardiff way lashing down now

That is the start of the system that is going to move NE across the Midlands later, should start to see some Sferics as the front meets the warm air.

 

 

The sun has started to peep out here in Warwickshire in the last hour and the humidity is soaring following this mornings showers.

Edited July 2, 2015 by matty40s

[Pat Butcher]

So it's not a particularly hot day, there's very little CAPE in the models, yet the usually conservative Met Office have issued a warning for an apocalyptic squall line. I haven't been paying attention today, whats going on?