central pacific Tropical Storm Ela

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Depression 04E formed yesterday, just inside the boundary of the Eastern Pacific. Soon after forming, it crossed into the Central Pacific basin.

04E has winds of 30kts. It looks distinctly unimpressive on satellite imagery with very little concentrated deep convection and a broad LLC. Moderate shear is affecting 04E and appears to be disrupting development. CPHC forecasts some modest intensification over the coming couple of days whilst waters remain warm enough along track to support it. Thereafter, weakening will occur as 04E continues west-northwestwards over cooler sea temperatures and passes north of Hawaii. Shear values are much higher here too which will quicken the weakening trend. Models are in disagreement with just how long 04E's life will be, one thing is certain however: it doesn't look like 04E will get particularly strong in it's lifetime.

[Somerset Squall]

04E was upgraded to Tropical Storm Ela this morning, with winds of 35kts. Through the day, Ela has looked dishevelled as the limited convection associated with the storm has been sheared northeast of the partially exposed LLCC. Shear is not expected to ease, and the very disorganised Ela will soon weaken to a tropical depression then dissipate shortly after.