Autumn 2015

[lassie23]

Another week  of warmth to come http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

[richie3846]

Another week  of warmth to come http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

 

And possibly a fortnight, by the looks of some of the models. This mild spell reminds me of last year's amazing spell of late warmth. This spell is also amazing, in my opinion - it's just a tad overshadowed by last year. Looking at halloween, 20c could be on the cards for some.

[Evening thunder]

It has been an incredibly boring Autumn so far here. In fact, between 29th August and now there hasn't been a maxima lower than 11.7C or higher than 19.8C. The only plus side is that it has been rather dry overall.

 

I like an Autumn with variety, both warm and cold spells (obviously with the warmer spells in the first half and colder in the second), but this year has just been 12-19C every day and looks like continuing for a while yet.

 

The only point of interest is we could threaten the high maximum in November but that's about it.

 

Same here, and I like variety too. We've had one maxima above 20C (21.3C on the 10th Sep), with the lowest being 12.9C on the 23rd Oct. A few ground frosts here though that would be expected.

Not quite sure about temps this coming week here either as with weak sun (if the cloud breaks) and a southerly this time of year the air temp will struggle to rise more than a degree or to above the sea temp here. 16C forecast tomorrow but Sunday/Monday only is only forecast 14C (though that could be under-doing it a bit).

Uneventful for every other aspect too (calmer than summer so far).. rather dry here too but that's added to the boredom if anything.

Mind you summer was the same.. no maxima above 24C since the 1st July and only 3 in the whole year (highest max 24.6C, lowest yearly max I've recorded.. so much for the July heat blip).

 

Edited October 29, 2015 by Evening thunder

[Evening thunder]

In fact I've just noticed some curious differences between the Met Office and GFS temps for next week.. Met Office much colder in places..

 

Met Office temps at 3pm on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday:

 

   

 

Compared to GFS max temps:

 

Tuesday is currently the 06Z run (and Monday the 12z for 6pm not 3pm, but these are generally the same as the 3pm max temp charts (they really show the 3pm-6pm max temps)) as the GFS seems to be coming out really slowly again.


Met Office model going for lingering fog/low cloud? Weather symbols are generally cloudy/dull looking by day.

Edited October 29, 2015 by Evening thunder

[damianslaw]

Yes so far its been a very uneventful autumn, with little in the way of heavy rain, or stormy weather or extreme temps (warm or cold). The outlook promises more of the same, though perhaps some extreme temps (relative to average).

 

Many similiarities with this time last year, uncanny really, with the similiar temps forecast..

 

Mmm its all making for very dull model watching..

 

Will we see a flip come mid November? It can happen, think 2005..

 

 

[cheese]

In fact I've just noticed some curious differences between the Met Office and GFS temps for next week.. Met Office much colder in places..

 

Met Office temps at 3pm on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday:

 

Sunday 3pm.png Monday 3pm.png Tuesday 3pm.png

 

Compared to GFS max temps:

 

Tuesday is currently the 06Z run (and Monday the 12z for 6pm not 3pm, but these are generally the same as the 3pm max temp charts (they really show the 3pm-6pm max temps)) as the GFS seems to be coming out really slowly again.

Met Office model going for lingering fog/low cloud? Weather symbols are generally cloudy/dull looking by day.

Met Office likely underestimating as per usual.

[Man With Beard]

Met Office are so often up to 5C out in my location. They seem reluctant to post anything too far from the norm until the day.

About autumn, are we anywhere near being the driest? I can hardly remember a day of seriously heavy rain - mostly light and short-lived. Doesn't look like we'll get too much in the next two weeks either.

[Costa Del Fal]

Yes the meto have very frequently underestimated temps this year often not increasing till just near the day and then often increasing another 1-2c on the day if the sun is out. Better to underestimate and pleasantly surprise the public than vice versa though!

[Liam J]

Cloud amounts are key to the temperatures on the ground especially at this time of year, to take advantage of the warm 10c+ 850's currently being modelled you really need that sun to be out... Perhaps the Met are forecasting more cloud amounts which would impact greatly on the temperature at the surface, on Tuesday the forecast high here was 15c with sunny intervals but I managed close to 18c as the sun was out for some length of time. 

Edited October 30, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[solarcycle]

Yes the meto have very frequently underestimated temps this year often not increasing till just near the day and then often increasing another 1-2c on the day if the sun is out. Better to underestimate and pleasantly surprise the public than vice versa though!

 

But the strange thing is that I see other comments claiming the meto overprog temperatures because of their 'warmist agenda.' They're damned if they do an damned if they don't. I really don't think they forecast using a model of 'under promise, over deliver.' 

[cheese]

Whilst I'm

looking forward to the possibility of 16-19C and sunshine on Sunday, I have to say I found this morning's weather lovely - a breezy 16C with thick cloud rushing overhead, with the odd spit of rain.

That's really strange!

Met were wrong.. they went for cloudy skies.. it turned out sunny.

[Methuselah]

That's really strange!

Met were wrong.. they went for cloudy skies.. it turned out sunny.

And, not really strange at all...the Met was dead right for this part of the world!

[Weather-history]

26th October time-lapse: lovely day

[Weather-history]

27th October was another lovely day

[Weather-history]

28th October: a bright sundog at 1.57

[Weather-history]

29th October

[Weather-history]

30th October: sunnier than predicted

[Summer Sun]

17C in Edinburgh at 7am

 

Last night Kinloss was at 2.5C by dawn this morning it was 17.5C!

[moorlander]

Well, last day of October and not one morning frost.

Also due to the lack of any significant wind during this month I have yet to see leaf fall reach it's peak.

Up side though my gardens are full of colour for a little longer than usual       

[Weather-history]

Halloween

[Man With Beard]

The November record looks safe tomorrow, but still wondering if a 20C may pop up. Nearly got there today with 19C in a couple of places. In Oxford today, and it felt like a June evening as dusk fell. 20C in November would be incredible. No real sign of the seasonal to cold in the foreseeable either.

[NorthYorksWeather]

This Autumn has been very average here so far. Yesterday was warm with a max of 16c, today was much cloudier and cooler at just 13c, looking at the next 5 days temps ranging between 9-12c with not much sunshine on offer so carrying on the average theme temp wise. Had 2 ground frosts so far but no air frost yet with no sign of any more to come in the model output. Fog has been seen on many days in October and looks like November will start the same way.

[Weather-history]

Halloween night time-lapse from Irlam

[Summer Sun]

Yesterdays top temp was 19.5c at Hampton Water Works in SW London

 

Not recording breaking but still well above average

[Weather-history]

Both September and October have turned out drier than average for the British Isles, markedly so for Scotland and Northern Ireland and by the looks of it the first few days of November for England and Wales don't look too wet.