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Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

I would say I am in with a good chance of seeing some action tonight :-) that's brilliant because us in Lincolnshire always miss out .........*dons crash helmet* :rofl:

LOL! Always miss out on drizzle more like. Legend has it that it thunders 340 days of the year in your back yard. Lincolnshire is the storm capital of the UK :D Hope your crash helmet is not metal. Very dangerous wearing metal on your head in that part of the world. :oops:  Meanwhile, I appear to be in the thunder zone tonight too. :drinks:  Hope Gordon Webb gets drizzle.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

I disagree to be honest....all the respected forecasters and posters are quite bullish about tonight......I think that the lack of posts at this time is probably more to with members working than anything else. I appreciate your own anxiety about storms so hopefully you won't see anything tonight, but I feel plenty other folk will see something tonight :)

I hope so, but I also doubt it.

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Surprised this thread isn't busier tbh! This could be quite a severe event through tonight. Level 2's from estofex are quite rare for the UK let's face it! All other models are going for something decent too.

Looks as close to a repeat of the 3rd July 1999 as you can get, with a near identical setup.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

Quite an organised area of PPN in the Irish Sea, nothing electrical yet.


Surprised this thread isn't busier tbh! This could be quite a severe event through tonight. Level 2's from estofex are quite rare for the UK let's face it! All other models are going for something decent too.
Looks as close to a repeat of the 3rd July 1999 as you can get, with a near identical setup.

I'm surprised I'm nearly under a Level 2 aswell! What was that date like down here?

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Posted
  • Location: Harefield, North West London
  • Weather Preferences: Big storm!
  • Location: Harefield, North West London

No forecast of thunderstorms at either Heathrow or Northolt at present...

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Posted
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunshine and thunderstorms. Mild in winter.
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m

I think for the east, it will be a case of looking for thunderstorms to develop, a bit like on a typical plume setup. For the west however, it will be more looking for signs of electrification of the heavy rain. I don't think the west will see any actual cells tonight, just more general thundery rain if anything.

 

And no I'm not being a pessimist. :)

Edited by Thunderbolt_
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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

Is there much of a CAP tonight? As if not, this looks very similar to Friday Night and the SW might start with the thunderstorms again. But, again this is only a very optimistic theory.

 

Also, if you look closely at Sat24, a nice lump of Ac Cas has just crossed over the SW above this medium level cloud.

Edited by William Grimsley
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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK

mmmm not really... The storms will most be elevated like last Friday (just not as intense) so they will feed of energy that is not effected by the temps

Yes but if the clag hangs around we won't see much of any elevated storms. At least if it clears we'll get a decent view. Just my humble opinion of course, I'm not an expert, just that in 30 years or so of watching these set-ups the best action usually comes after some hot sunshine. Not always but usually.

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Quite an organised area of PPN in the Irish Sea, nothing electrical yet.

I'm surprised I'm nearly under a Level 2 aswell! What was that date like down here?

I'd imagine it would've been pretty awesome. Think it started up over your way. I just remember it being literally constant strobe lighting with crawlers all over the shop. Think Cambridge got hit mega hard, as did much of Southern, southwestern England and all of the SE quarter. Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

I'd imagine it would've been pretty awesome. Think it started up over your way. I just remember it being literally constant strobe lighting with crawlers all over the shop. Think Cambridge got hit mega hard, as did much of Southern, southwestern England and all of the SE quarter.

Oh maybe, just maybe then! Still not getting excited though.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Location: Leeds

Sorry, but some of this moaning about Estofex is a little bit silly. A Level 2 across an area doesn't mean that apocalyptic supercells will lay siege to every corner of the area noted. 

 

It means that there is a <15% chance that severe convective weather will occur within 40km of a point. This means that if you're in Charing Cross and receive a Level 2 forecast six nights in a row, the forecast is correct if severe weather (big hail, very heavy rain, strong convective wind, tornado etc) is detected near you, once. This could be in Luton, Croydon, or in your backyard.

 

Estofex forecast risk, not the weather.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

low cloud and clag....breezy and cool.....meh

 

 

things will change later on today no doubt, but here currently, it couldn't feel less stormy if it tried  :laugh:

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Oh maybe, just maybe then! Still not getting excited though.

Just found this! Describes what I witnessed exactly.

post-17277-0-95645200-1437044919_thumb.j

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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

No forecast of thunderstorms at either Heathrow or Northolt at present...

 

Should soon update to the 06Z but the midnight run for aviation has forecast for Cb present in the area tonight.

 

wafc_hnat_cb-extent_base_top_2015071600_

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK

First storms firing over France, Paris at 30C already in the hot sun.

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Posted
  • Location: South East Essex
  • Location: South East Essex

Should soon update to the 06Z but the midnight run for aviation has forecast for Cb present in the area tonight.

 

wafc_hnat_cb-extent_base_top_2015071600_

To my mere numptyness could you explain to me what i should be looking at on this diagram pretty please

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Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire

Just a reminder to those who are probably fretting already. On that Friday 2 weeks ago (as several occasions last year) there was little or nothing on the radars/detectors until AFTER 21.00 and we all know what happened next!

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Just a reminder to those who are probably fretting already. On that Friday 2 weeks ago (as several occasions last year) there was little or nothing on the radars/detectors until AFTER 21.00 and we all know what happened next!

 

Proper initiation, bar one or two isolated cells moving out of the Channel Islands, to my recollection was later than that - around 10:30ish. Not expected to be as late tonight, although that depends on which model you view.

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Posted
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunshine and thunderstorms. Mild in winter.
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m

Just a reminder to those who are probably fretting already. On that Friday 2 weeks ago (as several occasions last year) there was little or nothing on the radars/detectors until AFTER 21.00 and we all know what happened next!

 

Yes in most of the best plumes, the t-storms don't fire until after dark. If I remember during the July 2014 plume, the first storms didn't get going until nearly 01:00 in the morning.

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Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.

At the risk of sounding pesimistic storm wise,conditions today remind me of the 'bust' back in June.All parimiters seemed in place for storms but conditions on the ground in the daytime lacked the ingrediants for classic storm set ups.

Thats to say,chasing large cloud amounts around and no real locked in heat,the event at the start of July followed a hot,humid,sunny day.

Today in London its mostly cloudy and 22c.A simuler scenario to June.

I hope my pesimism is misplaced!

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Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham

To my mere numptyness could you explain to me what i should be looking at on this diagram pretty please

Is it CB cloudtops of nearly 35000 in the SE ??

Edited by Biggin
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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK

Proper initiation, bar one or two isolated cells moving out of the Channel Islands, to my recollection was later than that - around 10:30ish. Not expected to be as late tonight, although that depends on which model you view.

Fax chart for midnight shows a trough sat over the SE, just to the N &E of London with the cold front still out to the west. I'd say if anything shows up it'll be earlier than events a few weeks ago?

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

To my mere numptyness could you explain to me what i should be looking at on this diagram pretty please

The grey blob over the SE = CB

 

Cumulonimbus, heavy rain or storms.

Edited by alexisj9
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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

Just found this! Describes what I witnessed exactly.

That's awesome, have you kept a complete diary?

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