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Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: South East Essex
  • Location: South East Essex

The grey blob over the SE = CB

Thank you ...they got part right then cause there are current storms just off the coast of Florida which are shown on that chart....

so fingers crossed for tonight and will continue to read and learn what you guys put up on here

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

First initiation signs in the atlantic and in France.

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

Cloud clearing here now, well the sun is shining through very thin high cloud anyway, which I find can be a good indicator for later on.

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

That's awesome, have you kept a complete diary?

Nope I haven't myself, that's on some website describing severe weather events that happened each year.

I may start up a diary though soon.

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall,West Midlands
  • Location: Walsall,West Midlands

Just found this! Describes what I witnessed exactly.

This was a Thunderstorm i recorded on 27th may 1999 with the same forecast as we have today.

the storms started over the south west then into wales into nothern uk.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

It's gone very humid/muggy here now and the air feels hard to breathe.....not surprising though as I've just mowed the expanse of back garden and I'm fat and out of shape...lol

Back to the weather, low cloud is starting to lift and chinks of warm sunshine trying to break through

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Posted
  • Location: Near Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Near Hull

Tell you what though thats some rapid development if it happens:

 

nmmuk3hrprecip.png

nmmuk3hrprecip.png

Looks good, after last time we can see how quickly things can develop.

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Posted
  • Location: Harefield, North West London
  • Weather Preferences: Big storm!
  • Location: Harefield, North West London

Just a load of grey mess over head for now, not seen the sun or blue sky for a while now

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Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire

France have some high temps today, so could see some decent storms, UK is too far NW I think, so no storms today for UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m

GFS also favouring the SE for some fairly large precip totals

 

 

post-17481-0-67010000-1437049826_thumb.p

post-17481-0-16692600-1437049827_thumb.p

post-17481-0-59083100-1437049827_thumb.p

Edited by ChezWeather
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Not getting excited until Meto put out a warning at the TAF / Airport forecasts start showing storms.  My hunch at the moment is similar areas to last event to be affected but lightening not as frequent.

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

France have some high temps today, so could see some decent storms, UK is too far NW I think, so no storms today for UK.

Same thing happened two weeks ago. I had a high of 24c whilst Paris soared to 37-38c. Paris saw nothing, I saw a MCS..

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Posted
  • Location: Harefield, North West London
  • Weather Preferences: Big storm!
  • Location: Harefield, North West London

Heathrow have gone for 30% chance of thunderstorms 1800-2400, Northolt not yet... could change.

 

According to the MetO for us, it's not even going to rain

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Glad it's not just me who thought that...appears to be a much slower development than 2 weeks ago, presenting significant flash flood risk I suggest.

Are those charts above the NMM2 charts? Just goes to show how volatile that model is, up until now showing extremely little further south. That chart seems to resemble the MCS yielding ECM chart Nick F posted earlier :D

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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

Heathrow have gone for 30% chance of thunderstorms 1800-2400, Northolt not yet... could change.

 

According to the MetO for us, it's not even going to rain

 

Initiation a little quicker on the 06Z run for WAFC - cell over IOW area at 18Z onwards - similar path to last storms, exiting just south of the Wash.

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Posted
  • Location: abercarn, gwent, s.e.Wales
  • Weather Preferences: anything severe,preferably t storms
  • Location: abercarn, gwent, s.e.Wales

Hey guys!!

Ill b travelling down to stansted(airport)within the next hour,flying out to Spain early tomorrow morning,whats the chances of a storm for that area tonight?

Although I love a good storm,not sure I want one tonight as I wanna get a good few hours sleep...I know that won't happen if one comes my way -_-

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

France have some high temps today, so could see some decent storms, UK is too far NW I think, so no storms today for UK.

Don't wind people up lol

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Stanstead looks like a key area for some moderate storms between 10pm and midnight.  Glad Heathrow are going for 30% now  the TAF is usualy very conservative. I think last time they went for 20-30%

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Stansted seems fairly well placed for storms in my view

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Posted
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight

Looking at everything, im trying very very hard not to get excited right now, all i can is  now its suddenly warmed up in the last hour here, the first woft of that plume, also over west wight the cloud has broken and is sunny and very warm apparently.

 

Shall keep you all updated :D

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Hey guys!!

Ill b travelling down to stansted(airport)within the next hour,flying out to Spain early tomorrow morning,whats the chances of a storm for that area tonight?

Although I love a good storm,not sure I want one tonight as I wanna get a good few hours sleep...I know that won't happen if one comes my way -_-

Pretty good chance of seeing something I'd say.

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