Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards

[Flash Elvis]

The grey blob over the SE = CB

Thank you ...they got part right then cause there are current storms just off the coast of Florida which are shown on that chart....

so fingers crossed for tonight and will continue to read and learn what you guys put up on here

[William Grimsley]

First initiation signs in the atlantic and in France.

[alexisj9]

Cloud clearing here now, well the sun is shining through very thin high cloud anyway, which I find can be a good indicator for later on.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

That's awesome, have you kept a complete diary?

Nope I haven't myself, that's on some website describing severe weather events that happened each year.

I may start up a diary though soon.

[STORMGUY]

Just found this! Describes what I witnessed exactly.

This was a Thunderstorm i recorded on 27th may 1999 with the same forecast as we have today.

the storms started over the south west then into wales into nothern uk.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Tell you what though thats some rapid development if it happens:

 

[A.J]

It's gone very humid/muggy here now and the air feels hard to breathe.....not surprising though as I've just mowed the expanse of back garden and I'm fat and out of shape...lol

Back to the weather, low cloud is starting to lift and chinks of warm sunshine trying to break through

[Hodgheg]

Tell you what though thats some rapid development if it happens:

 

Looks good, after last time we can see how quickly things can develop.

[Homerr]

Just a load of grey mess over head for now, not seen the sun or blue sky for a while now

[ChezWeather]

Well here is NMM view on things for tonight. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Here is another take this would make more happier..

 

 

 

 

 

Well here is NMM view on things for tonight. 

 

Here is what strikes me, those are bloody slow moving storms!

[StormChaseUK]

France have some high temps today, so could see some decent storms, UK is too far NW I think, so no storms today for UK.

[ChezWeather]

GFS also favouring the SE for some fairly large precip totals

 

 

Edited July 16, 2015 by ChezWeather

[Tim Bland]

Not getting excited until Meto put out a warning at the TAF / Airport forecasts start showing storms.  My hunch at the moment is similar areas to last event to be affected but lightening not as frequent.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

France have some high temps today, so could see some decent storms, UK is too far NW I think, so no storms today for UK.

Same thing happened two weeks ago. I had a high of 24c whilst Paris soared to 37-38c. Paris saw nothing, I saw a MCS..

[Homerr]

Heathrow have gone for 30% chance of thunderstorms 1800-2400, Northolt not yet... could change.

 

According to the MetO for us, it's not even going to rain

[Harry]

Glad it's not just me who thought that...appears to be a much slower development than 2 weeks ago, presenting significant flash flood risk I suggest.

Are those charts above the NMM2 charts? Just goes to show how volatile that model is, up until now showing extremely little further south. That chart seems to resemble the MCS yielding ECM chart Nick F posted earlier

[NO LONGER POSTING]

France have some high temps today, so could see some decent storms, UK is too far NW I think, so no storms today for UK.

 

You maybe right, but with 3 models now confirming we are on to something

 

EURO4 being stubborn as ever

[Nouska]

Heathrow have gone for 30% chance of thunderstorms 1800-2400, Northolt not yet... could change.

 

According to the MetO for us, it's not even going to rain

 

Initiation a little quicker on the 06Z run for WAFC - cell over IOW area at 18Z onwards - similar path to last storms, exiting just south of the Wash.

[Michael Jd Scott]

Hey guys!!

Ill b travelling down to stansted(airport)within the next hour,flying out to Spain early tomorrow morning,whats the chances of a storm for that area tonight?

Although I love a good storm,not sure I want one tonight as I wanna get a good few hours sleep...I know that won't happen if one comes my way -_-

[Harry]

France have some high temps today, so could see some decent storms, UK is too far NW I think, so no storms today for UK.

Don't wind people up lol

[Tim Bland]

Stanstead looks like a key area for some moderate storms between 10pm and midnight.  Glad Heathrow are going for 30% now  the TAF is usualy very conservative. I think last time they went for 20-30%

[Harry]

Stansted seems fairly well placed for storms in my view

[Stormyking]

Looking at everything, im trying very very hard not to get excited right now, all i can is  now its suddenly warmed up in the last hour here, the first woft of that plume, also over west wight the cloud has broken and is sunny and very warm apparently.

 

Shall keep you all updated

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Hey guys!!

Ill b travelling down to stansted(airport)within the next hour,flying out to Spain early tomorrow morning,whats the chances of a storm for that area tonight?

Although I love a good storm,not sure I want one tonight as I wanna get a good few hours sleep...I know that won't happen if one comes my way -_-

Pretty good chance of seeing something I'd say.