Model Output Discussion - 1st August 00z---------->

[Polar Maritime]

Time for a new thread as July comes to an end, And we enter the last Month of Summer, That is 'August'.

 

July has been a typical N/W-S/E split, A rather unseasonably cool and unsettled Month at times especially for the North of the UK. With fleeting Pressure rises for the South, Giving some Summery weather at times. 

 

So what are we to expect for August given the Model Outputs?

 

As ever, Please keep it to friendly model related discussion in this thread, And head over to the banter Spring/Summer thread for moans, groans, ramps and more general chat:

 

https://forum.netwea...5/#entry3178481

 

We also have the Summer thread open for wider discussion:

https://forum.netwea...26-summer-2015/

 

If you're wondering where you can view the models, Many of them are available here on Netweather, Including the GFS,ECM, Ensembles, our own NetWx models, and others - All available from the Charts and Data page here:

http://www.netweathe...-and-data;sess=

 

Please be polite and respectful to other members on following the Forum Rules here;

 

https://forum.netwea...tion=boardrules

 

Old thread is here.. 

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83477-model-output-discussion-1st-july-onwards-18z/page-47#entry3241275

 

Many Thanks, Please continue,  PM.

[knocker]

Interesting the CFSv2 has the Atlantic cold SST anomaly changing to a warm one.

Charts weatherbell

 

[mushymanrob]

well i was going to post a very basic overview on the outlook, but vorticity has nailed it far better then most of us could. the noaa anomaly charts are unchanging and consistent



suggesting this type of synoptic chart will prevail for the next two weeks at least



the old se/nw split , poor for the northwest, not bad for the southeast.

[IanR]

Interesting the CFSv2 has the Atlantic cold SST anomaly changing to a warm one.

Charts weatherbell

lets hope so , and its stays warm for next summer, 

[Kiwi]

Interesting the CFSv2 has the Atlantic cold SST anomaly changing to a warm one.

Charts weatherbell

Just in time for the winter .....oh good!

[Nick F]

Indeed, persistent signal for upper trough to remain close to the NW for the next few weeks ... little impetus to change this stagnant pattern with the MJO weak and stuck in COD.

 

One subtle difference between 00z GFS and ECM ops/deters this morning is GFS looks slightly more amplified in the medium range with the 500mb trough to the W/NW, i.e. the trough digs further south, so more chance for surface flow to back more southerly at times to allow very warm conditions to flirt with SE/E England, but that's no consolation for further north and west - where pressure will be lower and temps pegged back. But, no cool northwesterlies and temps falling close to freezing at night for a while.

 

 

July was certainly a month of contrasts at either end, with close to 37C on the 1st at Heathrow and 1C early yesterday morning in Powys,Wales. 

[sunnijim]

As we have found this summer so far your opinion of it will depend on where you 'hang your hat'

I normaly just peruse this thread in the summer months with interest rather than contribute,but i'm struck by the number of posts that have the theme of 'no sign of

Summer on this chart or that chart' which although true for the majority,doesn't tell the whole story to a casual observer here.

So far Summer in SE England has been quite impressive,the coldish June provided lots of dry and sunny weather.Average temperatures but feeling warm,late Spring also had many summary days.July overall was very warm or hot with copius amounts of sunshine.

Looking ahead it is fair to say the majority of the UK will continue to suffer quite dismal summer weather ( although spare a thought for Scandanavian countries who have been locked in a permanent rain fest since May)

The exception being SE England again,continental influence means further warm to Hot conditions into the reliable and (just the odd day or two like the end of last week) when the Atlantic trough wins out Country wide.

[Man With Beard]

ECM T168/T192 showing an Azores High invasion for the third consecutive time - and as I suggested might happen last night, this time the trough stays further north, giving many more areas of the UK a chance of more prolonged sunny weather. For me, the signs on the ECM op are the most encouraging I've seen for a long time for central and northern areas, and consistency on the ECM is always very encouraging.

The current GFS is also interesting as the trough to our north pushes back further west as early as T120, can't be discounted at such short range, and if verified could allow more heat to flood the UK from the south at the end of next week.

So although in the big picture we remain on a bit of a knife edge (when are we not), there are many possibilities emerging for a summer rescue package for central/northern areas.

IMBY though I must agree with SunniJim's comments about the south coast, aside last Friday to the Wednesday just gone, no complaints at all about this summer so far from me. But now I'm seeing real hope that other areas may join in soon.

[knocker]

The ECM anomalies (and the GEFs) have been indicating this relaxation of the trough around T192 for a couple of days but have then reversed the process a couple of days later. And this mornings ext ECM doesn't fill one with confidence as it retains the trough albeit moving it a tad west.

Charts weatherbell

[Frosty.]

Well most of July was pish poor but I'm liking the look of the Gfs 6z in low res, it shows a real blast from the past...July 1st all over again with a buckling jet.

[Methuselah]

Well most of July was pish poor but I'm liking the look of the Gfs 6z in low res, it shows a real blast from the past...July 1st all over again with a buckling jet.

LOL Frosty, you could write positive-thinking manuals for a living!

[Frosty.]

LOL Frosty, you could write positive-thinking manuals for a living!

Yes Pete that's a good idea, in the meantime I will dream about low to mid 90's F returning towards mid August, sensational 6z in FI

[Sweatyman]

Yes Pete that's a good idea, in the meantime I will dream about low to mid 90's F returning towards mid August, sensational 6z in FI

it's a model run so it should be taken seriously.if not, what's the point in it? Looking good

[knocker]

Well i would say the point is if you take one run, from one model fifteen days day the line, seriously, you will have a whale of a time when winter arrives sniffing out them there building blocks and undercuts.

[Winter Cold]

it's a model run so it should be taken seriously.if not, what's the point in it? Looking good

 

Dont take it too seriously lol, it was a clear outlier at the end. It was a Frosty special

 

  

[Sweatyman]

Dont take it too seriously lol, it was a clear outlier at the end. It was a Frosty special

 

  

I won't! We can only hope lol

[Frosty.]

wonder what the Winter buzzword will be..?....

Thames streamers and Thundersnow with severe Siberian icy blasts

[Gael_Force]

Dont take it too seriously lol, it was a clear outlier at the end. It was a Frosty special

 

  

From little acorns on a 6am run in June......

 

 

I'll go for this

Has all this cool weather brought the silly season forward.......

[Daniel*]

Just in time for the winter .....oh good!

This is not that good for northerly sourced airstreams however the lesser thermal gradient the better some may say as at these boundaries of warmer moist air to the south and cold polar air to the north low pressure systems form this was notorious 2 winters ago. I'd prefer the chilly SST to remain myself. Last Winter could have been a lot snowier with present SST's in North Atlantic with the abundance of NW'lies just my stance also on the other side of the coin warm anomalies here are often associated with a negative NAO but this is out my knowledge.

[Polar Maritime]

As fun as it is.. Can we please keep to the Model 'Outputs' in here, There are other threads open for historical charts.

Thanks, PM.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Interesting the CFSv2 has the Atlantic cold SST anomaly changing to a warm one.

Charts weatherbell

 

Knocker...

 

Not seeing this in quite the same way as you  (as usual?)

 

It looks  to me as though after the El Nino the Pacific is getting much cooler (particularly the North Pacific) and whereas the North Atlantic has warmed a bit, it still shows a negative anomaly south east of Iceland and fairly neutral for the rest. So not much change for the Atlantic, but a big cooling in the Pacific (as is to be expected).

 

MIA 

[knocker]

Fine read it how you like and we aren't discussing the Pacific. Not much change..........................

[Nouska]

Knocker...

 

Not seeing this in quite the same way as you  (as usual?)

 

It looks  to me as though after the El Nino the Pacific is getting much cooler (particularly the North Pacific) and whereas the North Atlantic has warmed a bit, it still shows a negative anomaly south east of Iceland and fairly neutral for the rest. So not much change for the Atlantic, but a big cooling in the Pacific (as is to be expected).

 

MIA 

 

This will be interesting to watch - the whole run for SST anomaly is here.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=atl&pkg=ssta&runtime=2015073118&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=84

 

Forecast to mix out through September/October. Other LR models for SST anomalies show a good going Nino right through February and little warming of our cold pool.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/model_monanom_body.shtml

 

On the subject of cool sea temps, the mid stage of the GFS is a great example of our summer state: fast jet riding over the temp gradient in the Atlantic and bottling up the heat at the Channel coast.

 

   

[knocker]

The GEFS anomalies tonight show some significant changes (for the better) which should be treated with extreme caution until, or if, they are supported by NOAA and the ECM.

 

From T168 onwards they retrogress the trough west and proceed to weaken it until by T312 it's an extremely weak affair Greenland area. Regarding the surface analysis this would mean an increasing influence from the Azores with the less frequent intrusions of the NW colder air to the mainly North of the UK although this would still occur on occasion

 

So generally speaking things progressing well for all of the UK post the first week of August with temps around average or slightly above, But the GEFS has hinted at this before so best remember the caveat.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

[Man With Beard]

The UKMO tonight moved toward the ECM of this morning - shame the ECM has moved away from it:

 

 

Need to get pressure rising further north like the UKMO to direct those lows away from the UK at T168 onwards