Model Output Discussion - 1st August 00z---------->

[Summer Sun]

This is more like it from ECM

 

 

High pressure becoming increasingly dominant and much warmer than of late

 

Fingers crossed its onto something here

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS picked this signal up a few days ago, And has steadily progressed from there. As mentioned the other day, The models continue show much warmer settled weather push further North than of what we have seen all Summer, Which is good news after the nagging N/W flow we have had to deal with, Especially Scotland.

Edited August 3, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[knocker]

Well NOAA still isn't fully on board. Await the ECM

Edited August 3, 2015 by knocker

[Methuselah]

Well NOAA still isn't fully on board. Await the ECM

It's getting there...

[mushymanrob]

Well NOAA still isn't fully on board. Await the ECM

Indeed, they suggest the nice ecm is over estimating the azores ridge, so i wouldnt get to hopeful that we will get high pressure over us as currently depicted.

However, they do still promise a lot of pretty decent summer weather. It doesnt have to be thirty degrees to be nice! We are on course for some pretty decent summer weathher despite what some negetive cherry picked posts would have us believe!

[Methuselah]

Indeed, they suggest the nice ecm is over estimating the azores ridge, so i wouldnt get to hopeful that we will get high pressure over us as currently depicted.

However, they do still promise a lot of pretty decent summer weather. It doesnt have to be thirty degrees to be nice! We are on course for some pretty decent summer weathher despite what some negetive cherry picked posts would have us believe!

Indeed it doesn't, Mushy; 23-25 would be fine for me.

[knocker]

The ECM is also not completely on board. Okay for the weekend with the trough mid Atlantic and ridging in charge but after this it still moves the trough east so producing a far more north/south scenario than the GEFS. This still seems the more likely outcome but it's still to be resolved. Either way the prospect is still for some very reasonable August weather. I wonder what the EC32 will come up with.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited August 3, 2015 by knocker

[Man With Beard]

The ECM is also not completely on board. Okay for the weekend with the trough mid Atlantic and ridging in charge but after this it still moves the trough east so producing a far more north/south scenario than the GEFS. This still seems the more likely outcome but it's still to be resolved. Either way the prospect is still for some very reasonable August weather. I wonder what the EC32 will come up with.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Knocker I think I agree with your assessment simply on the basis that pattern changes never seem to be as instantaneously dramatic as models would suggest - so perhaps halve the northern extent of the area which gets "settled" weather as suggested by the ECM op - that might be a wise guess? Nevertheless, an improvement on the way for all and probably an even better taste of summer for southern areas. Edited August 3, 2015 by rjbw

[knocker]

Latest EC32 update

 

Starting with this weekend. As with other outputs it loses the adjacent upper trough and forms a new one south of Iceland allowing the Azores HP to ridge over the UK. This brings warm and settled weather to all of the latter. At the same time a strong ridge eastern Europe.

 

Now this where the differences with the GEFS have occurred. It proceeds to move the trough east and by the  13^th is parked just to the west of the UK thus greatly reducing the influence of the Azores ridge and introducing a cooler NW/W airstream.

 

But by the 18^th it greatly reduces this trough allowing once again the Azores to ridge NE forming a tentative connection the HP in the east. Thus restoring average to slightly above temps to all apart from the far NW.

 

That’s the last we see of the upper trough. Although pressure remains generally low in the Iceland area the rest of the run to the 4^th September is dominated by the Azores positioned as usual to the SW but ridging into the whole of the UK bringing a light NW/W airstream to all regions. Thus dry settled weather with average to a tad above temps.

 

Summary

 

A good warm three days Sat to Tues  then a brief return to cooler and more unsettled fayre for a week, although the southern half of the Britain still will not be too bad, before a return to warmer HP dominated airstream until the beginning of September.

 

I’ll take some of that

 

Edited August 4, 2015 by knocker

[mushymanrob]

interesting gfs 00z.... suggesting a prolonged warm/hot settled spell for most of southern uk.

thats possibly over estimating the expected weekends azores ridge, but the ecm (12z) also has this feature.

as far as i can tell, the anomaly charts

 

 

would result in something like this

(gfs 00z)

so some reasonable caution that we could be seeing a pleasantly warm, even hot, spell into next week.

[Mother Goose]

I'd be happy with 18 degrees, weather's been dire in Scotland!

[knocker]

Not a problem Goose. All will be revealed.

 

Anyway we are coming in range of the fax charts for the weekend. It currently looks like buildning HP from the SW with the fronts just clipping NW Scotland on Sunday.

 

 

[Napplewh]

Lets see if this verifies - id be happy with 28 degrees for the rest of August in manchester

 

I am off to Majorca on August 29th so hoping for four weeks of sun in August. Fingers crossed! 

Fax Charts look positive and Wunderground are predicting clear skies for manchester on Saturday! 

[Frosty.]

Marvellous Gfs 00z from this weekend onwards in the south as the Azores high builds in and then gradually the influence of the high spreads north and we end up with a nationwide fine and warm / very warm spell next week and turning hot across the southern half of the UK, this would be the best spell of the summer, a longer version of the start of July summery weather which on this run lasts until mid august.

Edited August 4, 2015 by Frosty.

[Napplewh]

i dont believe that the high pressure will settle over the UK i predict at best it will be a transient feature in between Low Pressure systems

[Summer Sun]

Jet stream edging further north on UKMO allowing pressure to start and rise though for those in Scotland you'll have to be a bit more patient

 

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY AUG 4TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A filling depression near NW Scotland will continue to move slowly away North. A new depression will move NNE to the West of the UK later tonight and tomorrow with troughs affecting Northern and Western Britain.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining rather changeable with rain at times especially over the North and West. Some lengthy dry and at times warmer conditions across Southern and Eastern Britain perhaps extending North later.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow moving NE across the South of the UK over the coming days. With time the flow moves to a position further North near Northern Scotland and it is maintained here for some time before indications that it may be moving back South again late in the period.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today continues to show some changes in pattern once we leave this working week. rain and showers will continue for many until then when a ridge of High pressure builds East close to Southern Britain. This ridge then extends slowly North early next week with some warm conditions for all. Any rain then looks likely to come from thundery showers over Southern Britain feeding up from the South with a rather slack pressure pattern developing through the second week with some showers but some dry, bright and warm spells too, once more eventually looking more likely in the South.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run shows a similar theme of very slack synoptic pressure patterns becoming established across the UK next week and lasting through to the end of the period. The current changeable pattern will become more confined to the North at the weekend as pressure builds strongly across the South with warm and humid weather here. Things become quieter everywhere thereon with some showery interludes almost anywhere but equally some fine and warm conditions too as weak High pressure become mixed in with equally weak Low pressure fronts too.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning for 14 days from now are fairly positive this morning with a lot of High pressure shown likely to be close to Southern Britain in two weeks time with any unsettled and cooler Atlantic winds more restricted to more Northernmost locations.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO today shows a more settled interlude at the weekend as High pressure ridges East across Southern Britain bringing some warm and settled days for a time. However, it doesn't look like staying around long before the Atlantic regains some control in the shape of Atlantic fronts nudging the High pressure away to the East and SE early next week.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show a lot of complex if weak synoptics driving the weather over the coming 5 days. Troughs move NNE across the UK from the SW through the period and given humid air will lie ahead of them some of the rain they produce could be heavy and thundery locally.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM this morning shows a build of pressure NE from the Azores High at the weekend with a spell of fine and warm conditions likely for many Southern areas at least for a time. It looks only a transient feature though before Low pressure regains some influence in the shape of thundery showers from the South and SW for a time and then a return to a more NW/SE split in the weather again to end the 10 day period with the best weather returning to the SE.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows the build of pressure too from the SW at the weekend. the weather would become dry and bright with some warm sunny spells. then as we move into next week pressure leaks away but with something of a ridge continuing to lie across the UK any rain would likely to be restricted to the odd thundery shower in the South and from Atlantic fronts to the far NW.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM this morning offers up a change in patterning as we move through the period. Pressure ridges strongly across Southern Britain at the weekend with some warm sunshine developing. At this time the North looks like staying breezy and changeable before here too conditions improve next week as pressure becomes quite slack across the UK. Unfortunately it doesn't look a completely dry picture as the slack synoptics could well support showers at times almost anywhere perhaps thundery in places.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night on the face of it has changed little but the slack pressure gradient across the UK should support a lot of dry and fine weather along with reasonably warm temperatures especially across the South.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There are signs of a possible change this morning as several models show High pressure ridging over the South from the weekend and then transiting to the East developing a lull in the NW/SE split for a time.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 95.9 pts followed by UKMO at 95.3 pts and GFS at 94.7 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 86.0 pts followed by GFS at 83.4 and UKMO at 82.7 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.1 pts over GFS's 53.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 38.7 pts to 33.8 pts from GFS.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

MY THOUGHTS This morning's output shows some moderation in the extent of the improvements in the weather shown in the most widespread scale of late yesterday. As a result the models this morning show a half way house type outlook which does provide some improvements at times for the North. Looking in a bit more detail the unsettled phase currently going will continue until the weekend with some rain for most at some point but some warm and humid air still holding on in the SE for a time. A strong ridge of High pressure is then shown by all models to build towards the South of England delivering fine and warm weather here while the North stays breezy and damp for a time. The ridge then moves East but maintains a ridge back across the UK under a quite slack regime pressure wise and it's at this point when conditions could improve most across the North. Once the High moves to the East some pressure from both the South in the shape of thundery showers and the West by Atlantic fronts is shown by some members and a suggestion of an eventual return to a more NW/SE split in the weather is hinted at towards the end of the period with the SE fairing best again. Nevertheless, I feel there could be a lot of rather warm and humid weather to be had by many over the next few weeks and while this will probably not result in wall to wall sunshine and very high temperatures some decent conditions could well be achieved by many more areas than has been the case recently with what rainfall there is more evenly spread across the UK for a time at least.

 

Next update from 09:00 Wednesday Aug 5th 2015

[knocker]

I'm not going through the saga of the GEFS and ECM anomalies again this morning suffice it to say they are still at odds One interesting feature of the ECM run that has popped up before is the LP off Spain and the Med.. I did notice that one or two ops runs recently played around with a slow moving slack low pressure system up through France.

Chart weatherbell

Edited August 4, 2015 by knocker

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z shows a more summery pattern becoming established, especially across England and Wales with temperatures widely into the mid 20's celsius and higher than that at times in the s/se. Becoming more settled as the Azores high ridges in by the weekend and gradually central and northern areas fine up next week and become warmer, although it looks largely fine, there would be a chance of thundery showers breaking out across the very warm south which also looks humid at times but at least the jet is pushed away to the northwest along with the cool unsettled dross we had in most of July with some welcome respite for the n/nw. I think the signs are good from this morning's 00z output for summer weather to make a comeback during the next few weeks.

Edited August 4, 2015 by Frosty.

[Napplewh]

The latest 06Z shows a lower than expected pressure pattern compared to 00Z

[Yarmy]

The latest 06Z shows a lower than expected pressure pattern compared to 00Z

 

Ah, yes but....

 

i dont believe that we will get the Azores high this weekend! GFS is very inaccurate model! i dont trust the 06Z. Lets see if it is still there in the 12Z. 

 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z shows a very pleasant summery outlook, initially for the south and east as the Azores high ridges northeast across southern areas through the weekend which is then bolstered by another strong ridge pushing east next week with a nice spell for many parts of the uk, even across the n/w, the south of the UK becomes very warm at times. There is a very brief interruption to the warm and settled picture at the end of next week but that only affects the north of the UK before high pressure comes back strongly by the end of the run. The main thing is not to take these charts literally, it's the trend which is most important and even John Hammond is dropping hints of a widespread summery spell next week.

[carinthian]

Looks like our summer Euro heat wave peaking by the middle of next week in Central Europe with widespread temps in the 36C to 38C range before storms take over. Could be parts of the UK locking into some of this heat by this time next week.

 

C

[Yarmy]

Looks like our summer Euro heat wave peaking by the middle of next week in Central Europe with widespread temps in the 36C to 38C range before storms take over. Could be parts of the UK locking into some of this heat by this time next week.

 

C

 

Yes, I'm off to the med next week and it looks like there is the potential for some spectacular storms.

 

 

Fingers crossed, although I'm not sure my family would agree.

[Frosty.]

Latest from the experts sounds very good for the southern half of the uk next week with increasingly settled and warmer weather which starts in time for this weekend as the azores high ridges up across the south, becoming drier, brighter and warmer and turning very warm in the south next week which is what the models are showing today. It still sounds disappointingly cool and unsettled across the north / northwest of the uk but with fine interludes although i'm hopeful that will change for the better because the models do show an improving picture further n/nw next week. The extended outlook for the second half of august sounds very summery for the south of the uk and gradually improving further n/nw too with longer fine and warm spells. So whilst most of july was pish poor, certainly across the n/nw, august looks like seeing a strong comeback for summery weather across the southern half of the UK.

Edited August 4, 2015 by Frosty.