Model Output Discussion - 1st August 00z---------->

[DR(S)NO]

Latest from the experts sounds very good for the southern half of the uk next week with increasingly settled and warmer weather which starts in time for this weekend as the azores high ridges up across the south, becoming drier, brighter and warmer and turning very warm in the south next week which is what the models are showing today. It still sounds disappointingly cool and unsettled across the north / northwest of the uk but with fine interludes although i'm hopeful that will change for the better because the models do show an improving picture further n/nw next week. The extended outlook for the second half of august sounds very summery for the south of the uk and gradually improving further n/nw too with longer fine and warm spells. So whilst most of july was pish poor, certainly across the n/nw, august looks like seeing a strong comeback for summery weather.

Here's hoping you're right Frosty.....quite frankly I could count the number of days we've had sunny weather,or temps above 20c,on the fingers of one hand!!

It wouldn't be a " comeback" for this part of the world because there really has been no summer this year..........my worry is that the extended outlook has shown room for gradual improvements since May.....but to no avail

[Frosty.]

It wouldn't be a " comeback" for this part of the world because there really has been no summer this year....

Yes my wording could have been better since northern UK has had a shockingly poor summer apart from a few days at the very start of July. I hope the weather improves for you soon DR(S)NO.

Edited August 4, 2015 by Frosty.

[Tamara]

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83477-model-output-discussion-1st-july-onwards-18z/page-29#entry3237007

 

The last three/four paragraphs or so of this (lengthy) detailed post made a couple of weeks back are the ones which are especially pertinent for purposes of this new post

 

The upper air anomaly charts look as though they are set to keep evolving closely enough towards the lines suggested there, despite apparent face value resistance towards this sort of improvement in the belt and braces modelling over the past week or so.

 

North Western parts which have received a sows ear of fortunes through the summer so far, seeing increasingly less trough domination and longer drier spells and recovery of temperatures as we head towards the middle part of the month. At the time time, the generally better conditions already established further south and east consolidating further into quite a lot of fine and warm late summer weather by next week, the second week of August, as previously estimated.

 

There is no need for too much backed up explanation or links reasoning the suggested improvement - much has been said previously on a variety of occasions

 

Suffice to say in brief that the fall-out from the extremely amplified Phase 7/8 MJO spike which inflated arctic heights to the north and supressed the jet stream quite widely across the UK during the closing week or so of July has erratically and gradually been fading out as we start the new month.

 

A further more decisive migration northwards of the jet over the coming 10 day period is set to occur as renewed convection settles back in the Maritimes/West Pacific and helps push Rossby Wave activity northwards and eastwards from the tropics into mid latitudes - with the Azores High responding accordingly in the Atlantic sector and ridging north eastwards to benefit larger areas of the UK and not just the European mainland.

 

Hopefully by mid month the most unsettled parts furthest north and west will have seen at least something of a reprieve from cool wetness, even if it is very unlikely to be enough to change lasting impressions of this summer overall.

[Milhouse]

The Azores high still set to push in for the weekend

 

[summer blizzard]

UKMO N/S split..

 

 

GEM is slack and probably close to or a little warmer than average through days 5-10..

 

 

GFS is much more settled..

 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z shows the Azores high ridging across the south by this weekend, becoming drier, brighter and warmer with Sunday being the best day but still unsettled and cooler for the n/nw of the UK. Next Monday shows a weakening band of rain pushing down from the northwest but across the SE it looks fine and warm.

Most of next week then looks largely fine and warming up again across England and Wales but less settled and cooler for n.Ireland & scotland. We then have a reboot of the pattern from the end of this week with the Azores high ridging in again but this time it leads to an even more summery spell with the north gradually improving too. The s/se has the warmest, driest and sunniest weather on this run but I have a feeling the north of the uk which is still waiting for summer to start, will see a change for the better in the not too distant future...and the Ecm 12z shows it.

Edited August 4, 2015 by Frosty.

[Man With Beard]

Well I know it may seem a bit hard to believe for our northern friends, but tonight's ECM isn't the first we've seen going for this:

 

[knocker]

The GEFS anomalies tonight have paid some homage to the ECM and NOAA.

 

It has the samee scenario for the weekend but progressing through to day ten it does swing the trough associated with the low pressure over Iceland east, albeit a touch weaker, and then parks it to the NNW of Scotland in the ext period. This is not a huge change for much of Britain but it does impact Scotland to a certain extent unfortunately.  This I imagine, although of course with access to far more detail and expert analysis, is what the METO is picking up on.

It is also what the ECM and NOAA have been suggesting although in the ECM case somewhat watered down.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited August 4, 2015 by knocker

[Milhouse]

Well I know it may seem a bit hard to believe for our northern friends, but tonight's ECM isn't the first we've seen going for this:

 

 

That would bring a rapid turnaround in fortunes for the north west. 10C upper temperatures sat over southern England for much of the time, rising towards 15c as winds turn southerly at the end of the run. It really is a cracking run.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z turns into a peach of a run with high pressure becoming dominant next week and temperatures into the mid 20's celsius from this weekend in the south where it becomes very warm and then hot later with temps soaring into the high 20's to low 30's celsius. The north also shows increasingly fine and warm weather next week, I'm Banking this run...BEST so far today. 

Edited August 4, 2015 by Frosty.

[cheese]

I hate to break it to you, but most of that CAPE will not be realised. The air down in the Mediterranean region is far too dry for thunderstorms to develop.

That's actually untrue - the coastal Med is very humid. Stifling even. It's also the most thunder-prone region in Europe.

[damianslaw]

Immediate outlook is very much more of the same, but the models are showing the azores high ridging in from the SW come the weekend promising a mostly fine sunny warm one away from the far NW, a decent outlook in this respect.

 

For the first time since late June, there is hope for much optimism if you are looking for fine settled warm weather, both ECM and GFS aligned with the forecast of the jet moving northwards into more normal default summer position, suggesting plenty of dry warm even very warm/locally hot weather for the SE next week, thanks to the influence of the azores high and heights building to the NE, with the trough squeezed over Iceland.

 

I am liking today's models very much, and the prospects of something more sustained in terms of settled weather looks very plausible this evening, much better synoptics for such conditions to occur, than a very fragile southerly plume scenario trying to establish itself against a very strong stubborn trough sat just out to our west..

 

August could be the better summer month this year, which in itself will be a marked change compared to the last 10 years or so.

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening! It does look like the ecm and gfs have had some following the Yellow brick road! Pressure rises for a short time on tonights models , but it does not last, and a very mish mash output from the models. A far cry from last nights output ,which of course was expected.    

[Man With Beard]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

Much more like it from the NOAA. Heights to the east having more influence over the UK, troughing moving further away to our north and any troughing in the Atlantic rather weak. Chances of a heatwave next week up a further notch.

Any weather - I do enjoy some of your alternative comments sometimes, but please tell me if you disagree with my assessment if tonight's ECM for your location:

Sunday WARM/HOT

Monday WARM/HOT

Tuesday HOT

Wednesday HOT

Thursday HOT

Friday HOT.

* "hot" meaning in this instance around 26C or above

** OK just to be on the safe side I've made a slight extra edit

Edited August 4, 2015 by rjbw

[ANYWEATHER]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

Much more like it from the NOAA. Heights to the east having more influence over the UK, troughing moving further away to our north and any troughing in the Atlantic rather weak. Chances of a heatwave next week up a further notch.

Chances ? Im afraid this what it amounts too!!!    

[Polar Maritime]

Chances ? Im afraid this what it amounts too!!!    

 

Well that's what we look for with-in the Models is it not?  The 'chances of a certain weather type actually happening.

Edited August 4, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[mushymanrob]

I hate to break it to you, but most of that CAPE will not be realised. The air down in the Mediterranean region is far too dry for thunderstorms to develop. There is usually high CAPE predicted for the Med during the summer months, but very little of it actually materialises.

My lad had one the other day, hes dj'ing in ibiza.

Looking very promising now that at long last we will get a decent spell of settled warm/hot sunny weather into next week as all indications point to it. And at long last some decent august weather after twelve years!

[mushymanrob]

Evening! It does look like the ecm and gfs have had some following the Yellow brick road! Pressure rises for a short time on tonights models , but it does not last, and a very mish mash output from the models. A far cry from last nights output ,which of course was expected.    

Are you on a wind up? Or arent you viewing the charts everyone else is?

The models and anomalies, have all moved towards a decent settled spell across most of the uk. If anything the data has upgraded and even the bbc weathermen have said itll warm up.

All indications are pointing more and more to a decent settled summery spell of weather.

 

Edited August 4, 2015 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

[Polar Maritime]

Some posts have been removed, Can we please continue from here-on-in discussing the Models in a friendly respectful manner. 

 

Thanks, PM.

Edited August 4, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[mushymanrob]

 

The models suggest its only just starting.

Edited August 5, 2015 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on

[Gibby]

For my part I think we are looking for marked improvements across the UK next week and yes that includes the North eventually. How long it lasts however is what I am less certain of. Let's see what the 00zs bring.

[knocker]

The ECM anomalies are more in line with the GEFS until approaching day ten when they become much more at odds. At that time in moves the upper trough closer to the UK and if you if follow this into the ext period it brings the trough more into play over the UK bringing much more unsettled weather for a period. Prior to day ten it  looks pretty rosy with temps above average even for Scotland. After day ten unsettled and we sink into below average temps for the next five days. It has to be said the GEFs isn't so extreme for this latter period so for the time being treat with some caution for a few days.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited August 4, 2015 by knocker

[Man With Beard]

ECM mean 850s for D5-D10 are up there with the very best of summer ensemble charts - the 10C quite a way north on many days. I'm not 100% ready to nail my colours to the mast yet, GEFS would need to improve, but I would suggest a heatwave next week is no longer possible, but probable. Indeed summer is over though ... In REYKJAVIK!

[Costa Del Fal]

 

But that's just not what the charts are showing are they. I'm sorry but a post like this wouldn't usually be allowed in the model thread so statements like that shouldn't be either.

Anyhow a decent set of model runs today and still firm on the 12z for some warm weather. August this year indeed could've the best since 2003.

Edited August 5, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS continues this morning to show more settled warmer weather for the UK as a whole, With Temps possibly touching 35c by the 20th for part of the South. An interesting period of model watching coming up over the next week reg detail.. 

Edited August 5, 2015 by Polar Maritime