atlantic hurricane season Atlantic hurricane season/invest thread

[mezzacyclone]

It aint much but its better than `nowt - Ladies and Gents please welcome Invest 95L, High Lat & the usual SAL ahead to contend with (sinking air & low sst`s/anoms aside for a moment) but modelled to stay on a shallow WNW course so not fully condemned fishy hence slim pickings but at least sumthin for the immediate future?

[summer blizzard]

95L rolled off the coast at near depression strength and got a special advisory. Its since weakened due to easterly shear but has a 20% of development.

[Somerset Squall]

Now 0%.

[summer blizzard]

Glorious news..

 

We have 96L (and probably 97L soon, depends what happens to the wave behind as 96L deepens).

 

UKMO, GEM, GFS and Euro all bring this to a hurricane in 5-9 days and have it hitting the Gulf Coast or South Eastern US (ECWMF). Track varies from a northern route taking it through the Florida straights (GEM - Brought it to 104KT) and then Gulf Coast or through the Caribbean and probably Cuba (GFS - Except some exceptional deepening if that track comes to fruition in hot, virgin waters with a kelvin wave on top).

 

Having had no major hurricane hit the US since 05, i'd suggest that this may be one of the better candidates to break that duck.

 

1. Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with an elongated area of low pressure that extends from
the northeastern coast of South America into the central tropical
Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive
for gradual development of this system during the next few days as
it approaches the Lesser Antilles and moves into the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

 

 

 

 

 

Finally some fodder fun, SHIP's unsurprisingly goes wild..

 

[summer blizzard]

96L now at 50% for development in 5 days.

GFS ensembles a little stronger, strongest run is 973mb so far.

Recon is scheduled for Thursday.

[mezzacyclone]

96L now at 50% for development in 5 days.

GFS ensembles a little stronger, strongest run is 973mb so far.

Recon is scheduled for Thursday.

What wonders a little MJO can do eh SB?

Some following here on but by the looks of the latest I favour a TC soon and beyond then,,,,,?

[summer blizzard]

What wonders a little MJO can do eh SB?

Some following here on but by the looks of the latest I favour a TC soon and beyond then,,,,,?

 

Well for the first time in three years shear went below normal in mid-July and once Bertha passed the shear went away from the Carribean so i think that's just seasonal wavelengths. But, there is a CCKW approaching over hot seas and instability so looks good.

 

GFS12z today had it hit south Florida as a TS before moving back into the Atlantic and becoming this as it went extra-tropical..

 

[summer blizzard]

Now a cherry. 50% for 48% hours, 60% for five days and recon in tomorrow.

 

[Thermohaline Conveyor]

Christobal will be born I feel.  ECM keen on developing this wave into a hurricane before taking a sharp turn left and tracking around the sub-tropical ridge and keeping her a fish.  GFS is a lot less aggressive keeping our wave a very weak feature before gradual intensification and tracking across the Caribbean towards FL approx.  Massive deviance at the mo.

Edited August 20, 2014 by Thermohaline Conveyor

[mezzacyclone]

,,, and recon in tomorrow.

 

Where we await the hopeful COC to shed some light on a palpable path as the differences on ECM`s trough intensity and GFS more Westerley ridging keeps everyone guessing at future "Cristobal"? doing an Irene or a fishy?

ASCAT imagery looks inconclusive as far as I can muster?

Interesting times ahead is a given

Edited August 20, 2014 by mezzacyclone

[summer blizzard]

Now at 70% in 5 days.

Recon in at 5.30pm.

6z models suggest a fish but I've not seen the Euro. More confidence of hurricane strength though.

[summer blizzard]

Very broad circulation, recon in now but i can't make sense of the data. Weirdly it looks like recon are at 56W, 16N when the center looks to be close to the islands near the main convection.

 

[mezzacyclone]

TS strength (+40kn) surface est. winds in NE sector on recent obs: (16.6N 57.5W): these are 300 mile due East of Guadelope???

so as SB stated above theirs confusing data?

but generally its messy with no consolidation still? 

[summer blizzard]

TS strength (+40kn) surface est. winds in NE sector on recent obs: (16.6N 57.5W): these are 300 mile due East of Guadelope???

so as SB stated above theirs confusing data?

but generally its messy with no consolidation still? 

 

Is it possible there is a second center at 60W?

[mezzacyclone]

Is it possible there is a second center at 60W?

I think so (2 llc`s?) yes!

[summer blizzard]

I think so (2 llc`s?) yes!

 

A look at the data, satellite and radar answers our queries. The NHC have correctly detected the single (i think) low level center, what we see on radar near 60W is the mid to upper level center due to the system not being vertically stacked.

 

One can see here..

 

 

[summer blizzard]

It's fodder but the GEM hits Florida and then the Panhandle.

 

[mezzacyclone]

A look at the data, satellite and radar answers our queries. The NHC have correctly detected the single (i think) low level center, what we see on radar near 60W is the mid to upper level center due to the system not being vertically stacked.

 

One can see here..

etc etc.

I thought the distance apart from the apparent vortices was close so thats a good spot

but I`m yet to be convinced their isn`t 2 LLC`s? But coincidentally speaking, this was Pouch 16 & 17 off Africa!

Edited August 21, 2014 by mezzacyclone

[summer blizzard]

etc etc.

I thought the distance apart from the apparent vortices was close so thats a good spot

but I`m yet to be convinced their isn`t 2 LLC`s? But coincidentally speaking, this was Pouch 16 & 17 off Africa!

 

It's a possibility. I think so. 

[mezzacyclone]

No real change overnight in structure nor Intensity and the disturbance still appears to acquire 2 or even more vortices, 1 North and 1 South of Puerto Rico?

Recon to investigate again later today but even more inconsistency in the models now as the US Eastern seaboard trough looks to be digging well South and East out of the Carolinas as we speak?

[summer blizzard]

Convection is over at least one of the centers and its in much better shape.

We await recon.

[Vorticity0123]

No real change overnight in structure nor Intensity and the disturbance still appears to acquire 2 or even more vortices, 1 North and 1 South of Puerto Rico?

 

Looking at the satellite imagery, 96L still looks like a mess. Convection associated with 96L is still located over a very large area, and is also highly elongated northwest-southeast (as of 16:30 UTC).

 

Visible satellite loop of 96L (Courtesy: NOAA)

 

There is also no evidence of banding features as of yet. However, low level cloud motions do indeed indicate some kind of curvature to the south of Puerto Rico (66W, 16N). I'm unable to find a center north of Puerto Rico myself, but it could well be there. (possibly under the convection, as indicated by Summer Blizzard).

 

If there still appear to be two vortices associated with 96L, it could have a lot of trouble organizing, at least until one single well-defined center has become defined.

 

Finally, from low level cloud motions (on the visible satellite image loop of 96L) one can identify a line of convergence, extending from about 14N 71W up to 15N 68W. CIMSS convergence analysis confirms this analysis, though it extends the area of most intense convergence up to northeast of Puerto Rico. Whether this will influence the development of 96L is something I don't know, but it is worth noting nontheless. 

 

Sources:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/96L/96L_floater.html 

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

Edited August 22, 2014 by Vorticity0123

[summer blizzard]

I can see a SW and NE banding on the satellite so I think the center is north of the island.

[mezzacyclone]

 and its in much better shape.

 

etc,

,and technically better too! : 55mph surf wind estimates 18.050N 65.267W & extrap surface pressure 1007mb 18.867N 66.650W,

Could we have a COC taking over somewhere North of a line between DR and PR before tomorrow?

[summer blizzard]

Looks better.

UKMO keeps it weak but into the Gulf.