How to interpret and use the BBC/Met Office forecasts...

[Thunderbolt_]

This may seem like a pretty pointless thread, but hear me out. It seems like a lot of people have difficulty interpreting the BBC/Met Office weather forecasts in relation to thunderstorms, so I'm going to try and help you.

 

As we know, there is a possibility of thunderstorms this upcoming Saturday and into Sunday, and this is currently the forecast that the BBC/Met Office has issued me, at this stage, so we'll use this as an example:

 

 

As you can see, the BBC/Met Office have given me the "thunderstorm" symbol for 22:00 on Saturday. First thing's first, this does not mean that at bang on 22:00 a massive overhead thunderstorm is going to blow over my area with 100% certainty. Instead it means that there is a risk of me hearing thunder at some point late Saturday, and into the early hours of Sunday. This risk does not even come close to 100% certainty and is simply a warning that the conditions favour thunderstorm development, so that there could be thunder in the vicinity of the Manchester area during the later hours of Saturday/early hours of Sunday.

 

Furthermore let's remember that all of these forecasts are computer-generated. The system has essentially analysed the models itself and produced a forecast for this area, which has had absolutely no human interpretation at this point. This again is the reason why you should take these forecasts with a pinch of salt and a bit of common sense.

 

I hope this has helped you.

[William Grimsley]

Thanks for the post, Scott! As most of you can imagine, this has helped me! LOL

[Thunderbolt_]

Thanks for the post, Scott! As most of you can imagine, this has helped me! LOL

 

Cheers William.

[Rain123]

Very good,well done

[IanR]

that thunder symbol will be removed soon for a drizzle symbol regarding the nw , if it hasn't done already , not checked yet , not expecting anything in these parts, whatever the 'risk' is percentage wise

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Very useful guide, not only for new members but also, I'd have thought, for the average punter who seems to think that these purely model-driven "forecasts" have human input or are somehow supposed to be "guarantees" that the weather type shown is going to occur.

[Thunderbolt_]

Very useful guide, not only for new members but also, I'd have thought, for the average punter who seems to think that these purely model-driven "forecasts" have human input or are somehow supposed to be "guarantees" that the weather type shown is going to occur.

 

Cheers.