Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere Autumn/Winter 2015/16

[gottolovethisweather]

Anything that starts to cool everything down is not a waste as it will help those marginal events later on

 

Yes the current setup is a bonus to be fair, with these early snowfalls for some across the nearby continent, it has to be positive I guess. 

Edited October 16, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[Methuselah]

Yes the current setup is a bonus to be fair, with these early snowfalls for some across the nearby continent, it has to be positive I guess. 

I remember saying that in 1970, 1976, 1981, 1988 and 1993...

[Nouska]

Here was me thinking that this morning's low of -3c must be some sort of record breaker for the time of year......

 

.....turns out it was the exact same figure for Bergerac on the exact same day .... in 2009 ......how the ageing memory can fail us.

 

 

http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites/29950959-pic-de-fraicheur-remarquable-sur-l-hexagone

[Don]

Here was me thinking that this morning's low of -3c must be some sort of record breaker for the time of year......

 

.....turns out it was the exact same figure for Bergerac on the exact same day .... in 2009 ......how the ageing memory can fail us.

 

A good sign perhaps for this Winter?!  

[winterlover]

For Northern Ireland, snow in Siberia is meaningless.

[bobbydog]

this day in 2009-

latest-

doing very well compared to 2009 and we all know what happened that winter!

[summer blizzard]

this day in 2009-

ims2009290_asiaeurope.gif

latest-

cursnow_asiaeurope-2.gif

doing very well compared to 2009 and we all know what happened that winter!

2009 saw a massive gradient increase south of 60N over the month. We've made gains in that area but I'd like to see more.

[sebastiaan1973]

Snow too in the south of the Netherlands. In Maastricht four daily maximumrecords were achieved.

[bobbydog]

2009 saw a massive gradient increase south of 60N over the month. We've made gains in that area but I'd like to see more.

actually it didnt until around the 24th-

2 days before-

so actually we're doing better so far this year

[Midlands Ice Age]

this day in 2009-

ims2009290_asiaeurope.gif

latest-

cursnow_asiaeurope-2.gif

doing very well compared to 2009 and we all know what happened that winter!

 

The other aspect of these maps  is the sea ice coverage now amazingly (according to some reports I have read) seems to be more 'secure' this year than 2009. It is only superficial maybe, but we will see.

 

MIA 

[Nights King]

The other aspect of these maps  is the sea ice coverage now amazingly (according to some reports I have read) seems to be more 'secure' this year than 2009. It is only superficial maybe, but we will see.

 

MIA 

 

If you look closely at latest there seems to be some ice clinging onto southern Greenland to west of Iceland which seems early. 

[stewfox]

Getting closer by the day, but all a waste of time right now, for the UK of course. Still got an inkling for an early sprinkling in parts though, maybe this side of December. 

 

We had lying snow here on October 29 2008 for 24hrs  as did many areas in the south east no suggestion that will happen at the moment but....  

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/64263-early-snow-in-the-past/

Edited October 18, 2015 by stewfox

[summer blizzard]

actually it didnt until around the 24th-

ims2009297_asiaeurope.gif

2 days before-

ims2009295_asiaeurope.gif

so actually we're doing better so far this year

That's interesting, 09 must have had a massive southern push in the last week.

[gottolovethisweather]

We had lying snow here on October 29 2008 for 24hrs  as did many areas in the south east no suggestion that will happen at the moment but....  

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/64263-early-snow-in-the-past/

 

Thanks and by some strange coincidence, having never seen this post, I've just mentioned that particular event in the MOD thread a moment ago, given some of the Model Output hints at D7 onwards. 

Edited October 19, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[summer blizzard]

I still don't think the gradient is good enough south of 60N.

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

http://iceagenow.info/2015/10/greenland-blowing-away-ice-growth-records/

 

 

 

Interesting information

 

 

BFTP

[Snipper]

Blast,

I'm interested

S

[Bullseye]

https://www.rt.com/news/319351-siberia-snowfall-omsk-record/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium%20=rss&utm_campaign=RSS

[KyleHenry]

http://iceagenow.info/2015/10/greenland-blowing-away-ice-growth-records/

Interesting information

BFTP

MJO predicted to go into strong phase 2 but it does walk the line of phase 1, which has added interest for us.

El Niño upstream pattern causing strong ++NAO to lower Greenland temps.

NW wind source for UK, temps lowered with cold SSTs. First snows for the Highlands look likely.

Edited October 23, 2015 by KyleHenry

[summer blizzard]

 

Better progress getting snow south of 60N.

Edited October 25, 2015 by summer blizzard

[cyclonic happiness]

 

Better progress getting snow south of 60N.

Seems to know the boundary of Europe though :-(

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Seems to know the boundary of Europe though :-(

 

I think that will remain too for a while as I think a S Scxandinavian/Continental block will be a general theme for a while yet.  This will probably assist in further cold plunges for Russia and more snow.  GFS 00z shows this sort of set up well. 

 

This will change/move the snow line west though

 

BFTP

[summer blizzard]

Update from Cohen is that we have an above normal snow increase and other factors all combine to a -AO winter forecast. No current strat-trop coupling is occurring to bring about this -AO signal for at least the next two weeks however we should be looking out for a vertical wave increase to signal.

[Interitus]

Update from Cohen is that we have an above normal snow increase and other factors all combine to a -AO winter forecast.

 

Obviously a lot of respect for Cohen, but as with any LRF a degree of caution is required. Last year the strongest signal in the forecast was supposedly the October snow being the second highest on record, but the AO ended up being 10th highest on record since 1950/1 (NAO was highest).

The forecast temperature anomaly pattern was remarkably good for north America, away from northeastern Canada, but the rest of the NH was largely wrong - this probably reflects failure of the AO forecast with other factors taken into consideration for a 'home audience' proving right for the US.

 

Forecast and anomalies

 

 

Actual anomalies

 

Edited October 28, 2015 by Interitus

[bobbydog]

however this winter turns out, we have a very good positive anomaly of eurasian snow cover-