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Storm & Convective Discussion - 20th August 2015 onwards


Supacell

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Posted
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset

If previous storm predictions are anything to go by then what is being forecast will be miles away from where (if) it occurs!

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Posted
  • Location: West Byfleet, Surrey
  • Location: West Byfleet, Surrey

good luck to those in the risk areas today, in a strange way im happy that we are not in the areas forecasted storms as i wont get my hopes up for it just to end up being another let down....looks like somewhere in the midlands northwards will get a severe storm today though although they could be fairly isolated.

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

If previous storm predictions are anything to go by then what is being forecast will be miles away from where (if) it occurs!

As is the nature of storms, it's just radar watch and hope time.

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Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

If it's any consolation August has been poor for several years in my neck of the woods, whereas growing up in the 90s it was the month that seemed to guarantee big storms, particularly the powerful overnight MCSs.

Indeed Harry. You used to be able to guarantee yourself an all nightervMCS in August in the 90's. *sigh*

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

Even with all these weather forecasts, I still think the south west will see something tonight even if not the worst of it.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W

I see the met office has extended it's warnings to more in line with all the others it does seem that parts of the midlands even though not all of the midlands is covered for the afternoon the It's looks like the real fun and games could be northern england this evening

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Tony on UkWW going for something interesting developing around Worcester later today then moving north. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Even with all these weather forecasts, I still think the south west will see something tonight even if not the worst of it.

 

In fairness, the Met Office does say thundery showers are likely for your area.

 

Worst affected today/tonight are likely to the the N Midlands and N England.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

Regards to my previous post, looking at BBC/NMM looks like most action could be tonight and tomorrow for the south west. This is pointed out by Nick F's convective forecast.


In fairness, the Met Office does say thundery showers are likely for your area.

 

Worst affected today/tonight are likely to the the N Midlands and N England.

Bang on Sir! ;)

Edited by William Grimsley
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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W

In fairness, the Met Office does say thundery showers are likely for your area.

 

Worst affected today/tonight are likely to the the N Midlands and N England.

 

I like that because I might be just a few miles south to avoid the worst although supacell should be chuffed

Edited by Gordon Webb
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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W

I see the GFS has lowered the cape/LI on it's latest runs

 

I also have a question I see that the Cape/LI almost completely vanishes by 2100 considering it's still realtively high at 1800 what is the cause of this , is it just the sun going down of a combination of factors?

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Posted
  • Location: Ash Vale, Surrey/Hampshire border
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Spells or thunderstorms.
  • Location: Ash Vale, Surrey/Hampshire border

The BBC graphics appear to show the storms forming over the channel this afternoon, but everyone on here says they will form over central england. Which one is correct, please?

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

It could be both although the main threat, for today, will be the surface heating and humidity inland. The current Met O warning seems about right to me.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W

The BBC graphics appear to show the storms forming over the channel this afternoon, but everyone on here says they will form over central england. Which one is correct, please?

 

depends on what you read latest thinking is for storms develop over part of the midlands moving north into northern england this evening with more elevated ones developing later in the evening mainly affecting the SW quarter ie SW england Parts of Wales but that'll be more likely a band of heavy rain developing with embedded convection and today really seems to be summer's last hurrah with heat and storms goodbye summer 2015 roll on the autumn where typically better weather will probably turn up

Edited by Gordon Webb
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Posted
  • Location: Wigan
  • Location: Wigan

The BBC graphics appear to show the storms forming over the channel this afternoon, but everyone on here says they will form over central england. Which one is correct, please?

its estimations really,  the bbc showed lightning graphics over the east midlands at first earlier, seems they have altered this then ,  I dont take much notice of where some guy in an office decides to a put a lightning symbol,   mother nature will decide that

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Good luck everyone. London will be the place to be no doubt

 

London has a virtually nil risk today.

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Posted
  • Location: Wigan
  • Location: Wigan

I still think some areas in  south and east england not in the main risk zone will get thunder, and parts of the nw of england just heavy rain, nothing scientific as my knowledge is limited, but i have seen this senario many many times with the same result, why different this time ? 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W

I still think some areas in  south and east england not in the main risk zone will get thunder, and parts of the nw of england just heavy rain, nothing scientific as my knowledge is limited, but i have seen this senario many many times with the same result, why different this time ? 

 

I think there's a more stronger cap in the london area and SE in general with less of it over midlands and especially Northern England

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Posted
  • Location: Wigan
  • Location: Wigan

I think there's a more stronger cap in the london area and SE in general with less of it over midlands and especially Northern England

but the temps are much higher there to break the cap for indivdual thunder cells?   with just a mess of heavy rain over us, seems this is always the case 90 percent of the time, 

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Posted
  • Location: Ash Vale, Surrey/Hampshire border
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Spells or thunderstorms.
  • Location: Ash Vale, Surrey/Hampshire border

Ok, cheers. I am going to the Bournemouth Air Fest today so hoping for good weather. So, this could be the last chance this year, so good luck folks in the midlands, but I am don't think we will get anything here in New Milton. 

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

Typically, my parents decide that we go out this evening, no doubt me in Exeter will get nothing and Newton Poppleford get hammered by torrential rain, frequent T&L and hail. lol

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