eastern pacific Major Hurricane Jimena

[Somerset Squall]

A tropical storm has formed well to the south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Jimena has winds of 35kts. Convection is blossoming over the LLCC, and convective banding is on the increase. The environment ahead seems very conducive for strengthening, with low shear, moist air and very warm sea temps. Rapid strengthening is a distinct possibility. A typical west-northwesterly track is expected.

Jimena will be approaching the Central Pacific (140W) beyond day 5, and will most likely be another crosser.

[Somerset Squall]

Jimena is strengthening quickly. Winds are at 50kts. A small central dense overcast has formed, flanked by impressive banding. Rapid intensification is expected as the air is moist, waters warm and shear low. Jimena is expected to become a category 4 hurricane.

[Somerset Squall]

Jimena has continued to rapidly intensify and is now an 85kt category 2 hurricane. An eye has become quite evident on satellite imagery. It won't be long before Jimena becomes a major hurricane.

[Somerset Squall]

Jimena's intensity continues to rocket upwards, with winds now at 130kts, a strong category 4 major hurricane. Jimena is forecast to become a category 5 hurricane in the next 24hrs.

[Somerset Squall]

Jimena is weakening due to a rather lengthy eyewall replacement cycle, which is still not resolved. Winds are down to 115kts. Gradual weakening is expected from hereonin, but it would not be surprising to see a little restrengthening IF Jimena completes the cycle soon before moving into a less conducive environment.

[Somerset Squall]

Jimena has completed the eyewall replacement cycle and has started to re-intensify. Winds are up to 125kts. The new eye has become much better defined and is embedded in a symmetrical central dense overcast. Further intensification appears likely over the next 12hrs, and Jimena could become a category 5 hurricane in that time.

[Somerset Squall]

Jimena has reached a 130kt intensity for the second time but strengthening has been halted by another eyewall replacement cycle. The eye remains well defined but a secondary eyewall is visible in satellite imagery. This will likely result in some weakening again.

[Somerset Squall]

Jimena has moved into the Central Pacific. Further weakening has occured, and winds are down to 100kts. Shear is moderate, but waters are still sufficiently warm for now. Jimena still has concentric eyewalls indicating another eyewall replacement cycle is in progress. Stronger shear and cooler water awaits in Jimena's track, so faster weakening is expected long term.

[Somerset Squall]

Jimena has only very slowly weakened over the last few days, and is now a 75kt cat 1. Jimena is moving to the northwest east of Hawaii. It is forecast to veer west north of Hawaii in the coming days whilst weakening more quickly due to even higher shear.

[Somerset Squall]

Jimena is on deaths door. Winds are down to 30kts. The circulation is largely convectionless, and unless it returns soon, Jimena will degenerate into a remnant low.