Model Output discussion 1st September 00z------->

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z shows unsettled weather arriving from the west through mon/tues next week with most of the uk having at least some rain and breezier conditions for a time but then pressure rises again from both the south and northeast with another blocking anticyclone bringing a return of fine and warm weather to the south / southeast of the uk through the second half of next week but the far west and north / northwest look windier and more unsettled, it becomes generally unsettled again by T+240 hours....so, high pressure isn't throwing in the towel and letting the atlantic deliver a knockout blow for a while yet by the look of it and in the meantime we have another 4 days of fine and warm weather but with chilly nights and a risk of patchy mist / fog.

Edited September 30, 2015 by Frosty.

[phil nw.]

Going back to the NH profile, a scan through the GFSP 06z members at the end of the run reveals the majority showing a generally -AO profile with Arctic blocking.

Early days yet though Blue with the vortex still to expand as i am sure you realise.

If it's like that in about 6-8 weeks then we are talking.

[phil nw.]

Ok while it's quiet i have opened a new thread for October so this one is now closed.

Over here now

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84124-model-output-discussion-18z-300915/

 

Cheers.