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Model Output discussion 1st September 00z------->


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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Good looking ukmo 12z with the high drifting slowly east across the uk next week and becoming centred just to the east which suggests to me it will become warm during the second half of next week with temperatures into the low 20's celsius across the southern half of the UK, the high holds its ground long enough to bring a fine week for many with gradually more sunshine but with chilly nights where skies clear and an increasing risk of mist and fog patches forming but readily clearing during the early mornings with just the far northwest of the UK becoming unsettled later in the working week.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

The day 6 UKMO chart should certainly please many. 

 

GFS and GEM as you were in the longer range with pressure lowering by days 7/8 and low pressure over the UK by day 9..

 

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

ground frosts and cloud cover?.... talk about trying to paint the most negetive picture you can!

ground frosts are unlikely away from northern upland areas, ( and not at all anywhere near that cold under cloud cover) although IF the cloud breaks, or where it does it will be chilly until midweek when the high gets centered more to our east and we pick up a warmer southerly draft. at least after today itll be dry for about a week.

Ha , Ha , glad you picked my post, not being negative mate , just commenting on what Im seeing! Nothing wrong with frosts and cloud, but of course it depends on the time of year and opinion! Yes a lovely week coming up after Sunday , but it depends on where you live. I was talking to someone who has visited the far Northwest of Scottish islands a few  days ago and they have not had a summer. This might be the only opportunity for them to be rejoicing in at last a window of fine weather before the Atlantic visits us later next week.... :sorry:  :fool:  :wallbash:

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 12z shows a very pleasant spell of anticyclonic weather for most of next week with dry and increasingly sunny conditions and gradually becoming warmer by day but still with chilly nights and mist & fog patches but with it being early Sept and the sun still strong, the fog will readily lift and clear to lengthy sunny spells. It turns unsettled from the northwest next Friday but more especially by the end of the run.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

NOAA tonight edging the HP NE and the trough SE veering the flow more westerly not dissimilar to the GEFS 11-15. This will probably bring some depressions into the UK, although no sign of any strong jet, perhaps travelling NE a tad thus affecting the north greater although I doubt any part of the country will escape completely. There is no great signal in the GEFS ext period of the GEFS losing this trough

 

And the ECM on the same page.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Looking quickly at this Mornings' GFS. Although moving steadily east the influence of the HP hangs on until next weekend with temps improving maybe up to 25C. in the SE quadrant of the UK. After that, reverting to the anomalies it looks like a familiar scenario with HP way down to the SW and low to NW and westerly flow accompanied by the usual mixed bag of weather and around average temps. The latest EC32 update is singing a similar tale into October with depressions swinging along the usual NE trail interspersed with flurry's from the HP to the SW, again with average temps.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

Ha , Ha , glad you picked my post, not being negative mate , just commenting on what Im seeing! Nothing wrong with frosts and cloud, but of course it depends on the time of year and opinion!

 

what caught my eye was the contradiction.... ground frosts (possible in highland northern areas) require clear skies... your posts suggested ground frost and cloudy skies for all, and didnt mention the clearer sunnier periods which would make it feel very pleasant. that seems overly negative to me as you concentrated on the worst elements.

of course we dont know where will be cloudy, nor sunshine levels, i suspect that early in the week when the high is to our west we will import a lot of cloud in its circulation. so southern areas might well get more sun then northern. but when the high drifts to our east id have thought we would get more sun and warmth, especially in the west. of course eastern areas might keep the cloud off the north sea.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Hmm a couple of things to mention given this mornings output.

First off, there seems to be increasingly doubt over the middle of the week with respect to the extent of the fine conditions.

ECM

ECM1-120.GIF?05-12

Shows a system tracking north east across the north west of the country, this could see a band of rain affectthe western side of the UK.

 

But disagreement on this.

UKMO

UW120-21.GIF?05-07

Rain only affects the south western third of the UK as low heights undercut the ridge.

 

GFS

gfs-0-120.png?0

Shows nothing of this whatsoever and instead moves the shallow feature north of the UK at a much faster rate, hence no sign on this chart.

 

So there could be the risk of rain during the middle of the week, the highest risk being in the west of the country, but no guarantees regarding this as we have little agreement on this feature.

 

The second thing as mentioned above is the increasing resistance of the high at the end of the week, with some models keeping it in charge into the weekend.

GFS

gfs-0-192.png?0

The high clings on and it takes another attempt from the west to bring westerlies back into the UK.

 

ECM

ECM1-192.GIF?05-12

By Sunday we see low pressure develop to the south of the UK, not to dissimilar to the GFS in that regard. Westerlies are back in the following week.

 

So overall many questions still to answer over next week. Mostly revolving over the dominance and longevity of the high.

 

Personal view, with the middle of the week I feel the UKMO is probably not going to happen, I just can't see that low digging into the high and I favour the north east tracking solutions of the ECM and GFS, it is just a question of the specific track and hence the areas affected by the corresponding rain bands. 

As for longevity, well the GFS ens suggest that next weekend could end up fine as well.

gens-21-1-204.png

The high to our east/north east still in relative control even by Sunday afternoon. A long way off mind you and I will wait for the ECM ens before making anything bold in this regard.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 00z shows a return to summery conditions during the second half of next week with temps into the low 20's celsius, much warmer than we have had in recent times. There is no breakdown as such, apart from in the far west and north later next week, it's still warm and largely fine by next Sunday with just the odd shower. It briefly turns unsettled in low res before a return to anticyclonic conditions...a very nice run apart from an unsettled blip.

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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SATURDAY SEP 5TH 2015

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weak cold front will clear South out of Southern England this morning followed by an area of High pressure edging East into the West of the UK tomorrow.

 


 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming more settled from the weekend with a lot of fine and dry weather at least for a time for many next week before the chance of more unsettled weather retuns later.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow ridging around the UK as High pressure edges across the UK from the West. Thereafter the flow gradually strengthens first over the Atlantic and then over and around the UK as we move through the second week of the period.

 


 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure controlling the weather over the UK throughout the next week as it moves gently East across the UK over the coming days and then East into northern Europe maintaining a ridge back across the UK. Fine, dry and eventually somewhat warmer weather is likely as winds shift towards the SE later next week. Pressure will gently fall and late next weekend and the following week shows a very unsettled and windy phase under deep Atlantic Low pressure before High pressure is shown to regain control right a the end of the period positioned to the NE.

 


 


 

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning follows the operational throughout the first week with High pressure moving East across and away East out of the UK next week. The weather stays set fair and somewhat warmer with time with some sunshine and an increasing Southerly breeze next week. Then the model run shows a more extensive and prolonged unsettled spell from late next weekend lasting until and probably the end of the run with rain at times and a fresh to strong SW wind, heaviest rain always towards the NW.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show a lot of Low pressure around the UK in two weeks. There is a fairly even split of positioning this to the West, SW or over the UK with cyclonic winds as a result. 30% of members show the SE escaping the worst of the rain with Low pressure far enough to the West to restrict the worst conditions away from the SE.

 


 

UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure crossing the UK in the coming days and away to the NE setting up a large blocking High over Scandinavia. Fine weather will be the result of this with sunny spells and an increasing SE breeze towards midweek when pressure is shown to be falling to the West and SW.

 


 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show High pressure moving in over the North of the UK and away to the NE by midweek. Fine weather is likely as a result with winds increasing towards midweek from the South or SE.

 


 

GEM GEM today shows High pressure crossing the UK and away to the East over the next 3-4 days. The weather will stay largely dry with some sunshine and light winds until midweek when the High has crossed East into Europe setting up a warmer Southerly flow. Troughs are ganging up to the West and finally make it across the UK next weekend with some rain setting up a more Westerly air type with Low pressure near the North with troughs crossing East delivering wind and rain or showers at times to all in 10 days time.

 


 

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows the transit of a High East across the UK and off east into Europe next week with fine and dry weather for all over the next 4-5 days at least. It then shows a change towards more unsettled conditions a little sooner than the above models with rain reaching the West later Thursday and Friday and setting up an unsettled and cooler weekend with some rain as Low pressure edges across Southern areas.

 


 

ECM ECM this morning shows the same theme of moving High pressure across the UK from the West towards the end of the weekend displacing the cool Northerly with calm and fine conditions. With the High slightly further North than other output towards Scandinavia before taking it away into Russia towards the end of next week by which time. A lot of fine and dry weather next week will be displaced towards next weekend by more unsettled conditions edging in from the West and South with some thundery rain possible for a time before the Atlantic takes control towards Day 10 with Low pressure winding up near western Britain with rain at times for all by then.

 


 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night shows Low pressure up to the NW with a trough down across the UK meaning most members indicate a shift back towards more unsettled and breezy SW winds likely across the UK by day 10

 


 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models maintain their theme of High pressure migrating East away from the UK later next week with a return to more unsettled Atlantic winds thereafter.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM and UKMO at 96.0 pts  while GFS lags behind at 95.0 pts at 3 days. At 5 days UKMO is king at 86.1 pts followed by ECM at 85.7 and GFS at 83.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 61.0 pts over GFS's 53.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 41.2 pts to 35.2 pts from GFS.

 


 


 


 


 

MY THOUGHTS The loss of the cool Northerly that has afflicted the UK of late is almost upon us as all models continue to show High pressure crossing East over Britain and then away to the East and NE over the next 5-6 days. The net result will be for somewhat warmer conditions to eventually develop as we lose the Northerly drift and trade it for a Southerly one by the middle of next week. Until then though days will feel warmer but with little wind night's will still be very chilly with the introduction of some valley mists and fogs as well as a touch of frost is possible as the light winds under the High cross over. Then we still run the gauntlet of what happens to the weather over the UK as the High moves away to the East. Not unlike yesterday there is some output that show a lot of resistance from the High blocking Atlantic fronts from making too much inroad into the UK and as a result any unsettled conditions with rain may well be restricted to Western regions only until late next weekend. It then looks as though the High will finally give ground completely and we then get a variety of charts that show very unsettled and possibly windy conditions with rain at times through week 2. I think the models paint a fairly clear message this morning and although the specifics and detail of what happens from later next week remains questionable the message from all output is clear to see. So in a nutshell we have a week or so of decent enough weather with fine, dry, bright and eventually warmer conditions for all before a slow breakdown from the South or West seems likely next weekend leading into a more unsettled spell as we move into mid September for all areas so let's enjoy the fine weather that's to come in the next week while we can.

 

Next update from 09:00 Sunday Sep 6th 2015

Edited by Gibby
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The GEFS anomalies keep the trough at bay (just) till after next weekend. Thereafter it weakens and drifts the Scandinavian HP east creating a broad low pressure area in the eastern Atlantic.

Charts weatherbell

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Plume watch anyone?

Nice to start seeing the cold air in the far north start spilling southwards as 70 degrees north starts rapidly cooling expect those white pixels to accumulate as we head towards the final week of September.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 12z shows the scandi block (when it forms) strengthening and prolonging the increasingly warm and settled spell into week 2. The week ahead is looking bone dry and anticyclonic with variable cloud and sunny spells, feeling pleasantly warm in the sunshine with chilly nights, especially in the north and some mist / fog patches will form but readily clear during the early mornings. The second half of next week looks rather warm with plenty of sunshine and temperatures into the low to mid 70's F and the fine and warm spell lasts through next weekend and the early part of the following week with a trough to the southwest undercutting the block which brings increasingly strong SEly winds and eventually a breakdown to unsettled weather from the southwest as the scandi high drifts away northeastwards. Further ahead, unsettled for a time before turning very warm from the south...Great run. :)

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Big divergence for next weekend then - GFS would have us back in our deckchairs, but ECM has an ugly washout! It's all about the strength of the block. ECM looks a touch progressive and can overblow depressions at the T168 stage, so jury definitely out

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

well if the  models are  right !!!  it look ok up till  sept 15  just when i go back after my late summer  holiday!! :D

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Big divergence for next weekend then - GFS would have us back in our deckchairs, but ECM has an ugly washout! It's all about the strength of the block. ECM looks a touch progressive and can overblow depressions at the T168 stage, so jury definitely out

 

 

That divergence is also evident in the day 7 ensembles with ECM eager to bring the breakdown in next weekend but GFS wanting to extend the fine spell.

 

GFS..post-2839-0-19285300-1441484980_thumb.pn  ECM..post-2839-0-63590400-1441484968_thumb.gi

 

A classic case of more runs needed!

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

The real culprit behind the ECM 12z weekend washout is a weak low to the southwest failing to become cut-off from the jet stream between Thursday and Friday. This means that instead of the Scandi High being able to extend a ridge west such as we see in the GFS 12z operational run, that low is able to take advantage of a fairly strong jet stream and develop into a nasty feature capable of delivering a wet and wild weekend:

 

ecmt850.168.png

 

It's a very wet looking run from that point forward, as a shortwave low swings around the main one on Sunday to deliver another spell of rain, and then a string of disturbances along a moisture-laden frontal boundary pile in two days later.

 

 

GFS takes four days longer to bring the breakdown, and it manages to produce some fascinating charts from the 10th day onward. This for Tuesday 15th would see an unstable environment combining with an unusually warm, moist airmass to bring some potentially severe weather across the UK from the south:

 

h850t850eu.png

After which, the low pressure system hangs about just west of the UK, with a strong high over Greenland adding to the unusual setup:

 

h850t850eu.png

This setup is ideal for building exceptional heat across Europe (yet again this year!) and the run finishes by starting to draw it north toward the UK. The way the low is orientated, it's a shame the run stops there, as there's the potential for the 20*C 850hPa isotherm to reach the UK one or two days later, which would be exceptional, perhaps even unprecedented:

 

h850t850eu.png

 

Obviously I've chosen to display these charts purely for your entertainment - at such long range and with ECM disagreeing at just five days range, there's little reason to expect these charts to become reality. As much as I enjoy severe weather, that's probably for the best, as the amount of rain that could deliver would be most unwelcome having had more than twice the usual August rainfall here in the south last month. That's even with a two week dry spell in between!

Edited by Singularity
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

UW144-21.GIF?05-19

 

I should include UKMO really - it's less progressive with that low on Friday, but it does look to be far enough north and west that it might engage with the jet stream during the weekend, resulting in a breakdown that is a day or two later than ECM but two or three days earlier than GFS.

 

For what it's worth, GEM goes for the cut-off low to the southwest on its 12z run (and takes tropical storm Fred from the Azores to Iberia. The other models kill it off instead), while JMA has it drifting across the UK during the weekend, remaining a shallow feature as it travels far enough east to avoid engaging with the jet stream.

 

 

Bringing all this together, something between the extremes of ECM and GFS is the safe bet, with the weather breaking down either Saturday or Sunday. With any luck we can push that back one more day - fingers crossed.

 

Edit: come to think of it, there is a small chance that Tropical Storm Fred could cause us a bit of bother if it survives a trip to the Azores and is then drawn E or NE toward NW Europe and/or the UK. At the very least that would add a large amount of moisture into the mix, which could then be drawn north by the approaching Atlantic trough late this weekend or early next week. Unless of course the remnants head straight for us from the Azores (low probability but ECM's 12z evolution would allow for that I think).

Edited by Singularity
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Last nights GEFS T574 (upgrade) was quite interesting and it differed a little from the ops. At 06z on Saturday It had the block to the NE and the trough just to the west but also two low pressure areas, one to the SW and tother to the SE By Teiesday it had intensified the trough orientated NW/SE just to the west of the UK. Now this would indicate a certain possibility but as the anomaly is no good for detail so over to this mornings ops run.

 

Saturday 12z sees a low over Ireland which was the result of a general area of low pressure that had meandered up from the W/SW. The front is lying Ireland to Cornwall. By 06z Sunday the front has swung NE but  is weakening all the time as it batters against the HP which is also retreating. There is then a very brief respite before the next depression wings in from the west to be over southern Ireland 990mb by midday on Monday.

 

The change in the jet is also quite informative/

Charts weatherbell and http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

This mornings ecm is not dissimilar to the GFS as it has a general area of low pressure N. Ireland to Cornwall at 06z on Saturday. The frontal rain swings through the UK clearing by 06Z Sunday. It doesn't quite follow the same scenario as the GFS after this but it does have a band of frontal rain sweeping in on Tues on a little perturbation but the main depression is away to the NW.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

I think the trend from about a week ahead is now quite clear. As is often the case with a marked upper ridge, with its surface feature beneath it, the upper trough and surface features only make slow and at times erratic progress east. This is what all 3 main anomaly charts have been moving too over the past 3 days. Variations between them on positions/shapes etc of the upper features but the trend is there, all moving east.

links below ECMWF-GFS this morning

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

and they are both more progressive than the NOAA last evening output suggested

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

but the trend is obvious=slowly and at times erratically, ridge and trough are moving eastwards.

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

The GFS shows the High Pressure currently stuck over the UK shifting East, As the Atlantic pushes in from the West around the 14/15th on a pretty powerful Jet Stream aiding to push Lows to the South of the UK.

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Edited by Polar Maritime
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