Model Output discussion 1st September 00z------->

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Bring it on, we need variety in our weather, it would be boring if we had a high over us all the time wouldn't it?

 

disagree for a change, I want high pressure all the time

[ANYWEATHER]

Bring it on, we need variety in our weather, it would be boring if we had a high over us all the time wouldn't it?

Ecm 12z turns very unsettled next week.

Indeed. I love the weather we have now , cool nights and warm days,,,   Unfortunately it Changes to the default pattern....

[Frosty.]

Indeed. I love the weather we have now , cool nights and warm days,,,   Unfortunately it Changes to the default pattern....

Lol I thought you loved anyweather, sorry couldn't resist.

[Woollymummy]

Having left my spuds in the ground as long as possible, I guess I have to dig them up this week, rather than go off and enjoy the sunshine in leisure!!!

[Singularity]

There's still the same divergence between ECM and GFS tonight, with ECM firing the jet just south of the UK at times and bringing numerous rainfall events from Saturday through to Thursday next week, while GFS is keen on pulling the jet away to the north more, resulting in a changeable westerly flow with a mix of wetter and drier days - standard fare you might say.

 

Still more runs needed!

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS continues to shows the Atlantic sweeping in around the 14/15th. As per ECMWF, But also shows the flow turning a cooler Pm N/Wly by the 17th.

 

[knocker]

Events in the Pacific are forecast to impact and strengthen the Pacific jet and causing it to buckle with down stream connotations for the UK leading to the UK being the first stop on the depression train. Looks like being a wet and windy few days. On Monday the upper trough is situated over the UK and stretching down to N. Africa.and the next one rapidly moves in by Thursday.

 

Abandon hope all ye who enter here or make the most of this week.

 

Charts weatherbell http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited September 8, 2015 by knocker

[knocker]

Regarding this weekend the ecm is moving the low north to N. Ireland by 00z Saturday with the frontal rain sweeping across the country in the next twelve hours. Needless to say the gfs has a quite different take on this.

 

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY SEP 8TH 2015

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure will drift slowly East across the UK today and slowly away to the NE tomorrow with an ESE flow developing across the South.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming more settled through this week with a return to more unsettled and cooler conditions from the coming weekend.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow troughed over the Atlantic and ridged well to the North of the UK. The pattern slowly shifts East later this week with the trough moving into the UK this coming weekend and setting up a period of a stronger Jet flow moving East over the Atlantic and near to Southern England or Northern France next week onward.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure controlling the weather over the UK for some time yet as it transfers slowly NE from the UK towards Scandinavia over the coming days.Pressure then gently falls across the UK towards the weekend with some showery troughs edging up across the UK from the SE and SW with rain at times from Saturday. Then a Westerly flow becomes established across the UK under Low pressure to the North and NW making next week windy and changeable with rain at times especially in the North and West. There seems very little change in this period of changeable weather right out to the end of the run with Westerly winds and rain for all at times. 

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning is broadly similar to the Operational run through the next week or so with the breakdown from the South and SW next weekend leading on to a spell of windier and more unsettled weather. The run does show a period of drier and less unsettled weather over the South for a time later next week as a ridge moves close by to the South before unsettled and windy weather returns from the West to all areas again before the end of the period under influence of deep low pressure close to the North.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning are showing a lot of influence from low pressure to the North or West of the UK in two weeks time with the wettest conditions in the North and West. Comparatively a handful of members suggest more influence from High pressure close to the SE with drier weather for many.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure moving away steadily NE later this week as Low pressure develops South of Ireland moving North over the weekend. After several more dry and warm days things deteriorate from the SW from Saturday with rain at times and cooler air spreading NE across all areas by the start of next week.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show the UK High moving away NE too but maintaining a ridge back over the UK until the weekend when Low pressure makes it's move towards the SW with rain moving North and East over Southern and Western Britain before Sunday.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today shows High pressure moving NE away from the UK towards Scandinavia through the remainder of this week with pressure falling across the UK. Things are shown to stay dry until the weekend though when a complex area of Low pressure develops and moves NE along with it's troughs to position themselves across the UK for all of next week with showers or longer spells of rain at times for all areas in cooler conditions too.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too looks broadly the same with things deteriorating from the West over the weekend and setting up a UK based Low pressure system which looks like becoming persistent and slow moving through next week with rain and showers for all at times in breezy and cooler conditions than currently.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM this morning completes the set with High pressure moving away to the NE through the rest of the week and eventually being replaced by Low pressure over or around the UK for the remainder of the period. Translating this into weather shows that fine weather will continue until the weekend when Saturday looks like the day of change with rain and fresh winds moving NE across all areas to be followed by breezy SW or West winds and rain or showers at times for most if not all of next week.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night shows a strong indication that Low pressure will lie close to the NW of the UK as well as the Northern North Atlantic with breezy Westerly airflows and rain at times for all areas but perhaps most prolific towards the North and West.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models maintain their theme of High pressure migrating East away from the UK later next week with a return to more unsettled Atlantic winds thereafter.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM and UKMO at 96.0 pts  while GFS lags behind at 95.0 pts at 3 days. At 5 days UKMO is king at 85.6 pts followed by ECM at 84.9 and GFS at 82.8 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 59.2 pts over GFS's 52.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 39.6 pts to 34.1 pts from GFS.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

MY THOUGHTS High pressure remains in control across the UK for the time being as it migrates slowly away to the NE over the remaining days of this week to position itself over Scandinavia. As winds veer SE temperatures should be on the rise and sunshine amounts should increase as warmer and drier air is sucked up across the UK from the SE later in the week. Then it's all eyes to the SW as pressure steadily falls and a complete change in weather type occurs over the weekend. Saturday looks likely to be the day of change as Low pressure troughs move up from the SW with rain for Southern and Western regions extending to other areas too on Sunday. Thereafter while some drier and brighter spells are likely rain never looks like being far away as nearly all output show Low pressure over or near the UK in one shape or form maintaining very changeable conditions with rain at times through next week. There are hints that the South and East may be spared the very worst of the unsettled conditions for a while next week as pressure rises to the South but this looks by no means a guarantee with the overall message today being to enjoy the remainder of the weeks fine and pleasantly warm conditions because from the weekend on we will be chasing bands of rain and showers and possibly strong winds too around the UK as the Jet Stream fires up again in a position likely to be across the South of the UK or Northern France.  

 

Next update from 09:00 Wednesday Sep 9th 2015

Edited September 8, 2015 by Gibby

[Summer Sun]

Next week is certainly looking more mixed like Gibby says above not a total wash out by any means but everywhere is likely to have some rain at some point

 

Monday starts wet for all parts

 

 

By the afternoon the first band of rain clears away leaving a drier gap though becoming wet again out west temps for most areas in the low to mid teens though possibly the high teens for the south

 

 

Tuesday is another mixed day though maybe staying drier in some parts of the east temps again in the low to mid teens for most areas but possibly the high teens in the SE

 

 

Wednesday sees the rain mainly affecting the west

 

 

Temps in parts of Northern Scotland struggle to make it into double figures else where low to mid teens expect the south where we could reach the high teens once more

 

 

Thursday starts wet for most parts with some heavy rain in the west

 

 

During the day the rain slowly clears away but not in NW Scotland

 

 

Temps again are best in southern parts

 

 

Friday sees some very heavy rain moving in from the west during the day but it might not move over all that quick, temps picking up for more areas as the air comes up from the south

 

 

The warming trend continues into the weekend as the rain very slowly moves east

 

 

So a mixed week but potentially turning warmer by the end of it as a low moves in from the west dragging up some warmer humid air

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

GFS 18z chucking up interesting scenario in deep FI with HP to N and southerly tracking LPs.   Nearer time looks like a cyclonic westerly regime will invade after the weekend but that deep FI is a period to watch possibly for us southerners.  Lps that go on this sort of track tend to stall or become slow moving as they bump into HP to N/NE and high rainfall totals can be experienced.

 

One thing that seems to have been in short supply for some considerable time are vast SW'ly fetches

 

BFTP

Edited September 8, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GFS 18z chucking up interesting scenario in deep FI with HP to N and southerly tracking LPs.   Nearer time looks like a cyclonic westerly regime will invade after the weekend but that deep FI is a period to watch possibly for us southerners.  Lps that go on this sort of track tend to stall or become slow moving as they bump into HP to N/NE and high rainfall totals can be experienced.

 

One thing that seems to have been in short supply for some considerable time are vast SW'ly fetches

 

BFTP

 

00Z latest one? 06Z coming out soon

[knocker]

One can't help feeling that given the nature of the set up next week it's a distinct possibility that parts of UK may well experience quite a severe storm

Chart weatherbell

 

[legritter]

After looking at current charts and Data i think if we can we must get out and enjoy whats on offer over the next 4/5 days ,of course many arent able but i was lucky yesterday to enjoy a summers day in Autumn .

Next week looking very autumnal and if Gfs is now on the ball perhaps even some stormy weather knocking on our western shores ,many runs needed on this though but worth keeping an eye on ECM for a firmer possibility .

At least not boring and plenty i hope to bring more of us lurkers back in to any discussions ,cheers all     .

[Eugene]

Indeed. I love the weather we have now , cool nights and warm days,,,   Unfortunately it Changes to the default pattern....

 

 

Evening campers! Lovely weather to the end of the week, then unfortunately unsettled conditions move in.

 

 

 

13C and overcast is hardly warm, lovely though.

[knocker]

Just had a quick look at the 12z gfs for the weekend and it's like a merry-go-round with as many as four depressions swinging anticlockwise around and over the UK.

[Polar Maritime]

Certainly an interesting period coming up as the models pick out the detail, Some real Autumnal weather on the cards as we enter the 2nd half of September aided by a very powerful Jet running over the UK.

Edited September 8, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[ANYWEATHER]

As often is the case, September is regarded generally as a gentle month,,,,Unfortunately, the Uk according to the gfs and ecm  is to be battered by deep low pressure systems cueing out in the Atlantic,,,We shall see. But if this comes off this September will be quite different from past Septembers...

[Singularity]

Seems GFS has finally moved toward the multi-event solutions favoured by ECM lately.

 

We're still not seeing much sign of anything extreme within the next 6 days, with fairly typical wind and rain events for the time of year. Perhaps ECM would produce some large multi-day totals as it continues to make more of the secondary lows while also taking them through the UK more slowly.

 

Then comes a potential troublemaker, as the models are keen on bringing an ex-tropical system our way, after it passes close to or over Nova Scotia this coming Saturday. As it arrives in the vicinity of the UK from the southwest, it comes up against some impressively warm (or even hot) air across NW Europe, which drives a strong jet stream capable of giving the ex-tropical system what it needs to become a meteorological 'bomb'. The GFS 12z operational showed us what that could look like this evening, as the rapidly deepening low was modeled to bring wind gusts to near 60mph across Southern England, and stronger still going northwest from there, exceeding hurricane force across the North Sea as the low departs, with similar gust speeds hitting the far NE of England and SW of Scotland.

 

I need not post the charts as Polar Maritime has already given a good overview with their choice of charts 

 

ECM's not so violent but I suspect that some extreme rainfall would still be an issue for some part of the UK, as a very large amount of moisture is associated with the system:

 

 

P.S. Anyweather, I'm concerned that you'll damage some brain cells if you keep on ramming that wall like that every day 

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY SEP 9TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure will drift slowly away NE into Scandinavia over the next 24-48hrs with an ESE flow developing across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming more settled through this week with a return to more unsettled and cooler conditions from the coming weekend.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow ridged well to the North of the UK currently as High pressure lies to the NE. Over the coming days the flow realigns well South of the UK near Iberia before turning North across the UK. Thereafter the flow remains close to or across the UK blowing in a NE'ly or Easterly direction across us.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure receding away to the NE over the coming days with pressure gently falling in the gentle SE flow across the UK. By the weekend a trough of Low pressure moves NE across the UK setting up a period of many troughs and rain at times in a SW wind, strong for a time next week. While this wet and windy theme continues across the NW throughout the remainder of the period a drier, brighter and warmer period is shown to develop for a time across the South and East around the second weekend before Low pressure returns from the West to all by the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning is broadly similar to the Operational run in theme with rain at times for all from the weekend. It maintains the unsettled theme off the Atlantic for a week or so until High pressure builds across the UK from the SW to end the period with fine and dry conditions developing for all late in the period with some pleasantly warm days but with mists and fog by night.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning are still showing a predominance from members of generally unsettled weather likely across the UK in 14 days time as Low pressure looks likely to remain to the North or NW of the UK. 25% of members do show a ridge affecting the South though at that time keeping the unsettled weather going mainly over the North.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows very changeable conditions spreading NE across the UK from late Friday and early Saturday. It doesn't show blanket rainfall though as there will be some drier and brighter slots in between with a mostly moderate to fresh SW wind.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show the UK High moving away NE with complex Atlantic fronts moving NE across the UK from later on Friday and through the weekend with some short drier spells in between.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows that once the current fine spell elapses from the start of the weekend the rest of the 10 day period becomes a very volatile and unsettled period with spells of rain and showers on most days for all areas and at times accompanied by strong SW or Westerly winds as Low pressure becomes established either over or just to the North or west of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM looks very similar to GEM in many respects delivering deeply unsettled conditions with showers or longer spells of rain and strong winds across the UK at times as Low pressure dominates close to the West and North of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning looks less dramatic than some of the other output in regard to strong winds but paints the same picture of plenty of rain at times as Low pressure continually feeds in off the Atlantic for most of the period once the current fine spell decays away from late Friday and into Saturday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows a strong indication that Low pressure will lie close to the NW of the UK as well as the Northern North Atlantic with breezy Westerly airflows and rain at times for all areas but perhaps most prolific towards the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models maintain their theme of High pressure migrating East away from the UK later next week with a return to more unsettled Atlantic winds thereafter.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show at 24 hours ECM leads UKMO at 99.3 pts to UKMO's 99.2 pts with GFS coming in third at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM and UKMO are at 96.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.1 pts. At 5 days UKMO is king at 85.3 pts followed by ECM at 84.9 and GFS at 82.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.9 pts over GFS's 51.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 38.4 pts to 33.9 pts from GFS.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

MY THOUGHTS High pressure remains in control across the UK for the time being as it migrates slowly away to the NE over the remaining days of this week to position itself over Scandinavia. As winds veer SE temperatures should be on the rise and sunshine amounts should increase as warmer and drier air is sucked up across the UK from the SE later in the week. Then it's all eyes to the SW as pressure steadily falls and a complete change in weather type occurs over the weekend. Saturday looks likly to be the day of change as Low pressure troughs move up from the SW with rain for Southern and Western regions extending to other sreas too on Sunday. Thereafter while some drier and brighter spells are likely rain never looks like being far away as nearly all output show Low pressure over or near the UK in one shape or form maintaining very changeable conditions with rain at times through next week. There are hints that the South and East may be spared the very worst of the unsettled conditions for a while next week as pressure rises to the South but this looks by no means a guarantee with the overall message today being to enjoy the remainder of the weeks fine and pleasantly warm conditions because from the weekend on we will be chasing bands of rain and showers and possibly strong winds too around the UK as the Jet Stream fires up again in a position likely to be across the South of the UK or Northern France.

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2641.gif

With High pressure close to the SE the weather would be fine and warm in the South and East while the North and West see the unsettled theme continue in 11 days.

WORSE CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1561.gif

With Low pressure swinging NE over SW Ireland widespread heavy rain and gales would affect the UK in 7 days time.

Next update from 09:00 Thursday Sep 10th 2015

Edited September 9, 2015 by Polar Maritime
Attempted to make links work..

[Summer Sun]

Non of the links are working Gibby

[colonelks]

Non of the links are working Gibby

 

Looks like there is a 'space' after the end of each link which then results in the incorrect URL being loaded. If you take the 'space' out at the end of the address bar and hit return the page will load 

[knocker]

Any light at the end of the tunnel? Well maybe.

 

The anomalies at day ten, although not in complete agreement, do signal the beginning of the upper trough retreating to it's default position to the NW. Thus a return to the more zonal familiar westerly flow and around average temps.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

Edited September 9, 2015 by knocker

[Singularity]

GFS is still keen on using that ex-tropical material to deliver a nasty blow to the UK from the southwest next Tue/Wed (and some very heavy rain for western parts, not shown):

 

 

With the trees still in leaf, such strong gusts (nearing 60mph even inland) would be damaging to trees.

 

Something tells me this is the right sort of setup - with a rapidly developing low featuring a compact core - for sting jets to pose a threat - definitely something to keep an eye on.

 

ECM also gives reason to be concerned, albeit with a slightly different approach. A very compact 994mb low races across England on Tuesday night (see first of two charts below), bringing some heavy rain and the risk of very strong wind gusts depending on the mesoscale structure of the storm. I know some of you will be reminded of the storm of '87 (also a compact system, though it was a sting jet that did the most damage), but these events are rarely that extreme despite their potential. I can't rule it out though - having tropical remnants in the mix inevitably brings such events into the achievable range. 

 

Strangely enough, ECM brings a second compact system up from the south during Thursday, which if anything looks more threatening than the first. I can't quite work out which system is associated with the remnants of the tropical cyclone currently starting to get its act together near Bermuda. Perhaps the associated moisture breaks down and is involved in both? Such an outcome, with two moisture-laden systems so close together, would produce some very high 2 or 3 day rainfall totals.

 

 

Those who have been wishing for more interesting weather next week might get just that... but with a nasty catch?

[knocker]

Michael Ventrice â€@MJVentrice 14m14 minutes ago

ECMWF EPS showing strong indications for a big wind storm across much of the U.K. next week.