Cooler Atlantic

[JeffC]

I think this has been happening for a number of years. The canary in the mine is the European Eel, which spawns in the Sargasso and the elvers come back to Europe on the Gulf Stream. The number of Eels in the UK has dropped massively over the last decade or so....

 

[ANYWEATHER]

The "AMOC" Atantric Meridional Overturning Circulation, does indeed fluctuate with strength over the centuries.  It's switched off many times before since Planet Earth has been here. The Appocaliptic film the day after tomorrow shows an example of the AMOC shutting down but would be impossible for such a quick change as depicted in the film but that's Hollywood ! 

[summer blizzard]

I think you mean since it’s creation rather than since Earth has been here. The Gulf Stream only headed north in the manner we perceive it once the isthmus of Panama closed around 3 million years ago.

[knocker]

18 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

Worrying signs of a possible collapse of the AMOC in a study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany. Extracts from the Guardian article below, but the full story is also available free-to-view on French website FR24 here.

Climate crisis: Scientists spot warning signs of Gulf Stream collapse

Climate scientists have detected warning signs of the collapse of the Gulf Stream, one of the planet’s main potential tipping points.
The currents are already at their slowest point in at least 1,600 years, but the new analysis shows they may be nearing a shutdown.
The complexity of the AMOC system and uncertainty over levels of future global heating make it impossible to forecast the date of any collapse for now. It could be within a decade or two, or several centuries away. But the colossal impact it would have means it must never be allowed to happen, the scientists said.

Source (paywalled): https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/aug/05/climate-crisis-scientists-spot-warning-signs-of-gulf-stream-collapse

 I notice that a number of scientists have criticised the arcticle on the grounds that the Guardian is confused about the Gulf Stream. Unless the Earth stops rotating and the winds collapse (pretty unlikely!) the Gulf Stream will stay with us. The Gulf Stream is connected to the AMOC, but it's not the same thing.

[Polar.]

57 minutes ago, knocker said:

 I notice that a number of scientists have criticised the arcticle on the grounds that the Guardian is confused about the Gulf Stream. Unless the Earth stops rotating and the winds collapse (pretty unlikely!) the Gulf Stream will stay with us. The Gulf Stream is connected to the AMOC, but it's not the same thing.

Gulf stream as in the winds in the upper atmosphere won't be affected but the North Atlantic drift could be? Is that what you're saying? I'm slightly confused, how would this affect us if what they fear happens.  Thanks.

[summer blizzard]

21 minutes ago, Polar. said:

Gulf stream as in the winds in the upper atmosphere won't be affected but the North Atlantic drift could be? Is that what you're saying? I'm slightly confused, how would this affect us if what they fear happens.  Thanks.

I think he's saying that the gulf stream has multiple sink points due to salinity. In the cold scenario the one near Spain would become dominant. So long as the Isthmus of Panama exists though, there will always be a gulf stream.

[Badgers01]

13 minutes ago, Polar. said:

Gulf stream as in the winds in the upper atmosphere won't be affected but the North Atlantic drift could be? Is that what you're saying? I'm slightly confused, how would this affect us if what they fear happens.  Thanks.

no that is the jet stream - AMOC is part of the Gulf Stream

 

[Polar.]

7 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

I think he's saying that the gulf stream has multiple sink points due to salinity. In the cold scenario the one near Spain would become dominant. So long as the Isthmus of Panama exists though, there will always be a gulf stream.

Ah right. So the gulf stream while still existing won't have as great of an impact for us this far north as before. Got it. Thanks.

[Polar.]

7 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

no that is the jet stream - AMOC is part of the Gulf Stream

 

That was a silly mistake by me. I'm sleep deprived haha 

[Blessed Weather]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

 I notice that a number of scientists have criticised the arcticle on the grounds that the Guardian is confused about the Gulf Stream. Unless the Earth stops rotating and the winds collapse (pretty unlikely!) the Gulf Stream will stay with us. The Gulf Stream is connected to the AMOC, but it's not the same thing.

Yes, you are correct Malcolm. Ironically Aljazeera news report it more accurately than the Guardian:

Part of Gulf Stream at risk as Atlantic Ocean currents weaken

The Atlantic Ocean’s current system, an engine of the Northern Hemisphere’s climate, could be weakening due to climate change, which could have severe consequences for the world’s weather including  “extreme cold” in Europe and parts of North America and rising sea levels in parts of the United States, according to a new scientific study. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is part of a large system of ocean currents, known as the Gulf Stream, that transports warm water from the tropics northwards into the North Atlantic.

Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/6/atlantic-ocean-currents-weaken-signalling-big-weather