October 2015 CET

[BARRY]

9.1 c that's my final offer

[Mair Snaw]

10.2 for me.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Below is the October CET from 1659-2014 in blue, the 30 year average in red and the linear trend in black.

 

 

The CET this month is likely to finish somewhere between 12.4 and 13.0C after corrections. The average October following Septembers within that range is 9.5C.

 

The linear trend for the whole record is +0.37C per century. Following this trend gives an October CET of 10.4C.

The linear trend since 1850 is +1.17C per century. Following this trend gives an October CET of 11.0C.

The linear trend since 1950 is +1.69C per century. Following this trend gives an October CET of 11.2C.

The linear trend over the last 50 years is +1.58C per century. Following this trend gives an October CET of 11.2C.

The linear trend over the last 30 years is +4.36C per century. Following this trend gives an October CET of 11.6C.

 

October has been warming rapidly in recent years, with the each of the last 4 years setting a record for the warmest 30 year average. This is mainly thanks to an exceptionally mild last 10 years which averaged 11.6C, compared to the coolest 10 years (to 1896) which averaged 8.3C.

[Yarmy]

 

Below is the October CET from 1659-2014 in blue, the 30 year average in red and the linear trend in black.

 

 

The CET this month is likely to finish somewhere between 12.4 and 13.0C after corrections. The average October following Septembers within that range is 9.5C.

 

The linear trend for the whole record is +0.37C per century. Following this trend gives an October CET of 10.4C.

The linear trend since 1850 is +1.17C per century. Following this trend gives an October CET of 11.0C.

The linear trend since 1950 is +1.69C per century. Following this trend gives an October CET of 11.2C.

The linear trend over the last 50 years is +1.58C per century. Following this trend gives an October CET of 11.2C.

The linear trend over the last 30 years is +4.36C per century. Following this trend gives an October CET of 11.6C.

 

October has been warming rapidly in recent years, with the each of the last 4 years setting a record for the warmest 30 year average. This is mainly thanks to an exceptionally mild last 10 years which averaged 11.6C, compared to the coolest 10 years (to 1896) which averaged 8.3C.

 

 

 

The extraordinary figure of 5.3C for 1740 stands out. It was the year of the Great Frost. January (-2.8C) and February (-1.6C) were bitterly cold and the annual CET at 6.86C is the lowest on record (I believe). However, the September CET was a relatively toasty 14.0C. I doubt there's been ever such a precipitous drop in the entire CET record. I have a vague recollection that Russian volcanic activity was identified as the culprit.

Edited September 24, 2015 by Yarmy

[BlueHedgehog074]

Dream guess: 7*C

Actual guess: 10*C

[Wynn D Woo]

I'll have 11.3C please.

[Costa Del Fal]

Looks like my hopes of proper warmth wont come true next week with the high pressure albeit very pleasant still in any sun. However nights look like they could get pretty chilly too. Therefore for now im revising my guess right down to 9.6c.

[IanR]

This run of below average months has to stop soon, and October is as good a month as any as it has shown more warming recently compared to other months.

 

I'll go for 11.4C

it doesn't have to stop anytime soon, the weather /climate patterns can get stuck for considerable time spans, we do seem to be in some kind of cool phase which could go on a few years even, with cooler than average months far outweighing warmer than average,  looks like we are in that phase

 

there could be an argument to say we are due a cooler october,  

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Some cold nights are likely at times so I'll go with 9.7 C.

Edited September 25, 2015 by prolongedSnowLover

[CongletonHeat]

10.6

[Stargazer]

I'll guess a continuation of the rather cool theme - let's say 10.1.

[summer blizzard]

I'll go 9.7C.

[virtualsphere]

I'll try 8.8C please.

[Methuselah]

I'll guess at 9.8, please...

[coldest winter]

12.0 for me please

[Dancerwithwings]

9.5C, Cheers

[Methuselah]

Preliminary guess of 10C; winds from the west will be modified, relative to normal, by the cold Atlantic?

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

9.6c please!

[sundog]

10.0c for me please.

[Mark Bayley]

10.1c please 

[BornFromTheVoid]

The 06z GFS would have the CET about nearly 1C above the 81-10 average by the 7th.

 

I'm going to go for 10.8C for now.

[stewfox]

10.9c

[Costa Del Fal]

With a warmish start looking likely I think I will go for 10.0c now. Expecting potentially the second half of the month to turn quite suddenly cooler though (especially daytime temps).

[damianslaw]

The theme of the year has been a run of very near average months in the main, only April and now September bucking the trend. Given the cold SST values to our west, it is likely westerly/northwesterly airstreams will be cooler relative to average, and I suspect the longwave trough will set up home in similar territory to where it has been preety much since April, signs of this on many charts today, which is a cool synoptic set up. I will go with a very near average 10.6 degrees. Could be some notably chilly days at times, but expecting a relatively unsettled month which will prevent any significantly cold nights, but frost a common occurence in the north under clear skies, a NW-SE split most likely, could be notably cool in the NW. Quite a traditional October.

Edited September 28, 2015 by damianslaw

[Roger J Smith]

10.4 good buddies, over and out. (Roger)