October 2015 CET

[Stef]

10.0 please

[davehsug]

11.0C please.

[Roger J Smith]

I have the table of entries ready to post in the competition thread and here it is:

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/page-6#entry3265050

 

There are 66 on-time entries (and two later ones so far) and the median forecast is (still) 10.7 C.

 

Will add any late forecasts or edits, but if you edit a post before this one, I may not know about it, so just post an update. I think there was a new record of five changes in one person's forecast, with three gaining the silver medal.

 

Check back for updates to this post.

 

Right now, these values are not taken:

 

11.8 and 11.9 open, 12.6 and 12.7 open and 12.9 to 13.9 open

 

on the colder side, 9.2 to 9.4 open, 8.9 and 9.0 open, and 8.5 to 8.7 open

 

Anything outside the range 8.4 to 14.0 is wide open too.

Edited October 1, 2015 by Roger J Smith

[Duncan McAlister]

11.7 for me please.

[Godber 1]

10.2 for me please

[Great Plum]

Late again

10.4c please

[Roger J Smith]

1981-2010 CET averages, cumulative and 1772-present record values

________________________________________________________________

 

 

Date __ CET __ cum ____ MAX ________ MIN

 

01 ___ 12.9 ___ 12.9 ___ 20.2 (1985) ___ 6.1 (1808&1888)
02 ___ 12.3 ___ 12.6 ___ 17.9 (2011) ___ 3.6 (1817)
03 ___ 12.1 ___ 12.4 ___ 19.8 (2011) ___ 4.7 (1817)
04 ___ 11.9 ___ 12.3 ___ 17.7 (1959) ___ 5.1 (1912)
05 ___ 11.6 ___ 12.2 ___ 17.9 (1886) ___ 4.6 (1888)

06 ___ 11.9 ___ 12.1 ___19.0 (1921) ___ 4.1 (1888)
07 ___ 11.7 ___ 12.1 ___16.9 (1921) ___ 3.5 (1829)
08 ___ 11.8 ___ 12.0 ___17.7 (1995) ___ 4.1 (1829)
09 ___ 11.9 ___ 12.0 ___17.5 (1995) ___ 3.3 (1852)
10 ___ 12.5 ___ 12.0 ___17.8 (1921) ___ 3.5 (1814)

11 ___ 11.7 ___ 12.0 ___ 17.6 (1978) ___ 3.9 (1860)
12 ___ 11.6 ___ 12.0 ___ 16.5 (1978) ___ 3.2 (1887)
13 ___ 11.4 ___ 11.9 ___ 16.8 (1990) ___ 2.2 (1838)
14 ___ 10.9 ___ 11.8 ___ 16.1 (1990) ___ 3.1 (1838)
15 ___ 10.8 ___ 11.8 ___ 15.7 (1930) ___ 2.5 (1843)

16 ___ 10.3 ___ 11.7 ___ 15.8 (1818) ___ 1.8 (1843)
17 ___ 10.0 ___ 11.6 ___ 15.6 (1897) ___ 2.5 (1824)
18 ___ 10.1 ___ 11.5 ___ 16.7 (2014) ___ 2.4 (1843)
19 ___ 10.0 ___ 11.4 ___ 16.3 (1921) ___ 1.5 (1813)
20 ____ 9.8 ___ 11.3 ___ 14.9 (1795) ___ 2.1 (1842)

21 ____ 9.6 ___ 11.3 ___ 15.2 (1998) ___ 1.2 (1842)
22 ____ 9.9 ___ 11.2 ___ 16.2 (1906) ___ 2.5 (1931)
23 ____ 9.6 ___ 11.1 ___ 14.4 (1998) ___ 0.9 (1859)
24 ____ 9.4 ___ 11.1 ___ 14.3 (2009) ___ 0.6 (1859)
25 ____ 9.4 ___ 11.0 __ 14.0 (1978, 2013) _ 2.0 (1784)

26 ____ 9.6 ___ 10.9 ___ 14.7 (1927) ___ 1.5 (1785)
27 ____ 9.8 ___ 10.9 ___ 16.7 (1888) ___ 1.4 (1869)
28 ____ 9.8 ___ 10.9 ___ 15.6 (1888) ___ 0.9 (1895)
29 ____ 8.9 ___ 10.8 __ 14.0 (1772,1984) _ 0.3 (1895)
30 ____ 9.2 ___ 10.7 ___ 15.5 (2005) ___ 0.7 (1836)

31 ____ 9.3 ___ 10.7 ___ 16.9 (2014) ___ 0.7 (1836)

Edited October 1, 2015 by Roger J Smith

[AderynCoch]

Late for class, sorry Miss.

 

A nice round 10.0.

[Summer Sun]

12.3c to the 1st

 

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

 

0.6c below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 5.2C, while maxima look like reaching the high 17s, so a drop to around 11.9C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

11.6C to the 3rd (11.1: -1.0)

11.6C to the 4th (11.6: -0.3)

12.1C to the 5th (13.9: +2.3)

12.8C to the 6th (16.6: +4.7)

12.8C to the 7th (12.3: +0.6)

12.7C to the 8th (12.2: +0.4)

12.7C to the 9th (12.7: +0.8]

12.9C to the 10th (15.0: +2.8]

12.7C to the 11th (10.4: -1.3)

 

So a slightly cool start, but gradually moving above average by the end of the first week

[summer blizzard]

Pretty sharp model change in relation to the prior 14C+ estimate. Perhaps the result of Hurricane J heading to the Atlantic.

[storming10]

11.9 please

[Summer Sun]

11.8c to the 2nd

 

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average

 

0.8c below the 81 to 10 average

[Lettucing Gutted]

Pretty sharp model change in relation to the prior 14C+ estimate. Perhaps the result of Hurricane J heading to the Atlantic.

Or even better, the cooling Atlantic!

[Summer Sun]

10.9c to the 3rd

 

1.3c below the 61 to 90 average

 

1.5c below the 81 to 10 average

[March Blizzard]

The minimum today is 5.2C, while maxima look like reaching the high 17s, so a drop to around 11.9C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

11.6C to the 3rd (11.1: -1.0)

11.6C to the 4th (11.6: -0.3)

12.1C to the 5th (13.9: +2.3)

12.8C to the 6th (16.6: +4.7)

12.8C to the 7th (12.3: +0.6)

12.7C to the 8th (12.2: +0.4)

12.7C to the 9th (12.7: +0.8]

12.9C to the 10th (15.0: +2.8]

12.7C to the 11th (10.4: -1.3)

 

So a slightly cool start, but gradually moving above average by the end of the first week

10.9c to the 3rd

 

1.3c below the 61 to 90 average

 

1.5c below the 81 to 10 average

The disparity between the projected figure and the actual for the 3rd...

[Costa Del Fal]

Could it be because the cloud was a lot more stubborn across C England yesterday than forecast and thus kept temperatures much cooler?

Edited October 4, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[Roger J Smith]

You may remember this table of warmer October days than any preceding September day (mean CET) from last month's thread. I have added the September 2015 value for later comparison if October manages to break into this top 20 (edit, now there is a provisional estimated value that qualifies, see below):

 

Rank _ YEAR ___ SEPT MAX ___ OCT MAX ______ difference

 

01 ___ 1985 ____ 17.4 (30) _______ 20.2 (01) ______ 2.8

02 ___ 1921 ____ 17.3 (07) _______ 19.0 (06) ______ 1.7

03 ___ 1888 ____ 15.3 (05) _______ 16.7 (27) ______ 1.4

04 ___ 1873 ____ 15.5 (20) _______ 16.8 (03) ______ 1.3

05 ___ 1995 ____ 16.5 (01) _______ 17.7 (08) ______ 1.2

06 ___ 1910 ____ 15.2 (02) _______ 16.1 (02) ______ 0.9

07t ___1997 ____ 16.9 (01) _______ 17.7 (01) ______ 0.8

07t ___1909 ____ 14.8 (24) _______ 15.6 (04) ______ 0.8

07t ___1863 ____ 14.1 (18) _______ 14.9 (03) ______ 0.8

07t ___1845 ____ 14.3 (10,17) _____15.1 (02) ______ 0.8

 

11?___ 2015 ____ 15.6 (12) ______ 16.3 (06) _______ 0.7*

 

12 ___ 1897 ____ 15.0 (24) _______ 15.6 (17) ______ 0.6

13 ___ 1983 ____ 17.1 (01) _______ 17.6 (04) ______ 0.5

14 ___ 1830 ____ 14.6 (02) _______ 15.0 (22) ______ 0.4

15t ___1986 ____ 15.4 (02) _______ 15.7 (07) ______ 0.3

15t ___1965 ____ 15.8 (25) _______ 16.1 (16) ______ 0.3

17 ___ 1920 ____ 16.3 (06) _______ 16.5 (05) ______ 0.2

18t ___2011 ____ 20.0 (30) _______ 20.1 (01) ______ 0.1

18t ___1807 ____ 14.9 (04,05)_____ 15.0 (14) ______ 0.1

18t ___1793 ____ 14.8 (18) _______ 14.9 (05) ______ 0.1

21 ___ 1886 ____ 17.9 (01) _______ 17.9 (05) ______ 0.0

 

* based on estimated value, subject to change

Edited October 9, 2015 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 11C unlikely to be any change by tomorrow unless the night is very cold.

[March Blizzard]

Could it be because the cloud was a lot more stubborn across C England yesterday than forecast and thus kept temperatures much cooler?

Maybe due to colder nights than expected? We're at/getting to that time of year in which maxima reach a certain limit, but minima hinge on cloud cover/wind overnight. An unexpected break in the cloud and the temperatures can fall way beyond the expected low.

[Summer Sun]

11.1c to the 4th

 

1.2c below the 61 to 90 average

 

1.2c below the 81 to 10 average

[Stu_London]

Looks like 3 days of solid rises to come, followed by a cool down

[Roger J Smith]

So, I had a look at the November data to see how many similar cases there might be with a November max exceeding or equalling the October daily maximum CET. (see previous post, there were 20 such cases so far out of 244 for October relative to September).

 

The frequency falls off to only 14 cases, which are listed below:

 

rank ___ YEAR _____ OCT MAX _____ NOV MAX _____ difference

 

01 _____ 1817 _______ 9.0 (30) _____ 12.8 (17) _______ 3.8

02 _____ 1840 ______ 11.1 (01) _____ 12.8 (16) _______ 1.7

03 _____ 1881 ______ 11.5 (11) _____12.9 (5,12) ______ 1.4

04t _____1852 ______ 12.3 (22) _____ 13.4 (08) _______ 1.1

04t _____1938 ______ 14.3 (13) _____ 15.4 (05) _______ 1.1

06 _____ 1850 ______ 11.8 (19) _____ 12.5 (01) _______ 0.7

07 _____ 1899 ______ 12.1 (17) _____ 12.6 (05) _______ 0.5

08 _____ 1996 ______ 14.6 (14) _____ 15.0 (03) _______ 0.4

09 _____ 1849 ______12.6 (25,27) ___ 12.9 (08) _______ 0.3

10t _____1894 ______13.8 (11,12) ___ 14.0 (02) _______ 0.2

10t _____1944 ______ 12.1 (11) _____ 12.3 (23) _______ 0.2

10t _____1982 ______ 13.3 (02) _____ 13.5 (01) _______ 0.2

13 _____ 1784 ______ 10.2 (22) _____ 10.3 (11) _______ 0.1

14 _____ 1974 ______ 10.6 (26) _____ 10.6 (09) _______ 0.0

 

_________________________________________

 

Meanwhile, these are the coldest maximum daily CET in Octobers since 1772:

 

rank ____ YEAR ______ MAX

 

01 ______ 1817 ______ 9.0 (30)

02 ______ 1784 _____ 10.2 (22)

03 ______ 1808 _____ 10.3 (06)

04 ______ 1974 _____ 10.6 (26)

05 ______ 1885 _____ 10.7 (02,03,16)

06 ______ 1889 _____ 10.9 (07)

07t ______1840 _____ 11.1 (01)

07t ______1842 _____ 11.1 (10)

09 ______ 1796 _____ 11.4 (03)

10t ______1881 _____ 11.5 (11)

10t ______1887 _____ 11.5 (07)

12 ______ 1864 _____ 11.7 (12,25)

13t ______1850 _____ 11.8 (19)

13t ______1902 _____ 11.8 (10,13)

13t ______1905 _____ 11.8 (09)

13t ______1919 _____ 11.8 (06)

 

The average value is 14.5 for the entire period and 15.4 since 1980.

 

[Summer Sun]

11.7c to the 5th

 

0.6c below the 61 to 90 average

 

0.5c below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 13.5C, while maxima look like reaching 19C, so an increase to 12.4C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

12.6C to the 7th (13.4: +1.7)

12.5C to the 8th (11.9: +0.1)

12.3C to the 9th (11.0: -0.9)

12.2C to the 10th (11.3: -0.9)

12.2C to the 11th (12.5: +0.8]

12.2C to the 12th (11.8: +0.2)

11.9C to the 13th (8.6: -2.8]

11.7C to the 14th (9.2: -1.7)

11.6C to the 15th (9.6: -1.2)

 

It looks like the CET will be a little above average by the 10th, and a little below by the 15th.

Of note, is the provisional CET for the 3rd is the coldest since May 19th.