October 2015 CET

[Summer Sun]

11.0c to the 28th

 

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

No change today and possibly no change tomorrow depending on tonight temps. Still stuck on 10C

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 10.1C -0.1C for the month.

[Summer Sun]

11.0c to the 29th

 

0.3c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 8.4C, and maxima likely to reach the mid 16s, so an increase to 11.1C is likely on tomorrows update. The 06z GFS has the minimum just under 10C and maxima again in the mid 16s, which would leave the final CET on 11.1C before corrections (11.13C).

After corrections, 10.7 to 11.1C look most likely.

[Summer Sun]

11.1c to the 30th

 

0.4c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

October confirmed as 11.0C

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2015

[Weather-history]

October confirmed as 11.0C

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2015

That's the 4th month this year, taking into account rounding to first decimal place, that has ended on a whole number.

Feb: 4.0

Apr: 9.0

Jun: 14.0

Oct: 11.0

I wonder when the last time that at least 4 months in the year ended with a whole number?

[Don]

October confirmed as 11.0C

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2015

 

0.3C out and another month of 2015 not miles away from the average.  However, I think there's a good chance that November will buck that trend, although lots of us thought that about July!

Edited November 1, 2015 by Don

[BornFromTheVoid]

A few graphs for October 2015.

 

CET: Before and after corrections

 

 

The corrections themselves.

 

October 2015 compared to the historical averages and extremes

 

 

 

 

October 2015 ranks as the joint 46th warmest on record, with only 24 of those warmer months occurring before 1950.

This is the 11th October with a CET of 11.0C.

The warmest daily average was 15.8C, exceeding the warmest daily average for September by 0.2C. This has only occurred in 19 other years, the most recent being 2011.

[Methuselah]

Only 0.1 out. Glad I upped it from 10.0.

[Costa Del Fal]

Just 0.3c out. Been pretty close in the all the last few months.

[J10]

I have started compiling the figures, these will be up tomorrow evening.

Edited November 1, 2015 by J10

[The PIT]

Bulls eye

[J10]

Results now done, I'll add the stats stuff later today/tomorrow.

 

Monthly - 5 got it spot on

shuggee, The PIT, Gael_Force, Midlands Ice Age, davehsug 

 

Seasonal - a complete change around the top 3 now is

Gael_Force,  Stationary Front, stewfox

 

Overall - Some movement again the top 3 now

1st Weather26 (From 5th)

2nd BornFromTheVoid (From 2nd)

3rd summer blizzard (From 1st)

But it is so close, it really remains wide open.

 

PDF Oct 2015 CET.pdf

 

XLS Oct 2015 CET.xls

Edited November 2, 2015 by J10

[J10]

Some additional stats held over from last night.

 

Baseline (1981-2010)      10.7

Actual CET                       11.0

Average Entry                  10.7

Difference                          0.3

Correlation                      - 0.14

 

So the average entry was bang on the 30 year average, with the warmer month catching people out a little, Later entries did better with the 3rd and 4th quartile being above 50, and with a negative correlation ( -0.14) confirms this.

Edited November 3, 2015 by J10

[Timmytour]

Put this on the 2015 notables thread but worth a mention here. Despite October being a relatively warm month, it still came in at least 1C below the corresponding month from the previous year.  As did eight of this years previous nine months... making that nine out of the first ten months.

Only twice before in recorded history has this happened  (there's never been a year that's registered all ten at at least a degree below) .....  1667 and 1799

Edited November 4, 2015 by J10

[stewfox]

 

Seasonal - a complete change around the top 3 now is

Gael_Force,  Stationary Front, stewfox

 

 

 

Is that sept and oct   ? Cant find the link

[Roger J Smith]

Look in the second table in the scoring file, that one has the seasonal standings which are Sept-Oct as you thought.

 

It will be an interesting finish to the year (and the season) given the spread in the November forecasts.