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Model Output Discussion 18z 30/09/15


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Good Evening Folks ...the Fun and Games start from Sunday,,,,, :sorry:  :cc_confused:  :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Although not complete agreement between the anomalies tonight they are back on the same page. Both have a ridge Scandinavia/Pole but the key players are the developing LP Alaska and Canada/Greenland. The SE orientated trough from the latter bringing very unsettled Atlantic driven weather to the UK so wet and warm. The ECM phases Joaquin into the trough  Perhaps the return of the annointed ones best put on hold for a month or two.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Pleased with the output in the respect we are going too see the other side of Autumn in respect of wind and rain, potentially strong gusty winds in some areas although detail at this range is quite sketchy. Also the potential of an ex hurricane interacting with the jet stream could make things interesting down the line also. 

 

The outlook are still not really indicating much in the way of a true polar maritime shot of the season so whilst the other side of Autumn will be making an appearance, temperatures do look quite mild to say the least and night time minimums will be above average. 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Although not complete agreement between the anomalies tonight they are back on the same page. Both have a ridge Scandinavia/Pole but the key players are the developing LP Alaska and Canada/Greenland. The SE orientated trough from the latter bringing very unsettled Atlantic driven weather to the UK so wet and warm. The ECM phases Joaquin into the trough  Perhaps the return of the annointed ones best put on hold for a month or two.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

The devloping heights East and se of svaalbard are impressive knocks. Infact, the anomoly seems to be intensifying as the ECM ens mean heads towards the end of week 2. the GFSP also has a mean upper ridge that area so seems quite a solid theme. what does it mean longer term? no idea but I'd rather see blocking in the Arctic during October than an intensifying self feeding vortex over the pole. I expect the p/v will be developing fairly well in ne Canada whilst the blocking sticks nw of Russia.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The devloping heights East and se of svaalbard are impressive knocks. Infact, the anomoly seems to be intensifying as the ECM ens mean heads towards the end of week 2. the GFSP also has a mean upper ridge that area so seems quite a solid theme. what does it mean longer term? no idea but I'd rather see blocking in the Arctic during October than an intensifying self feeding vortex over the pole. I expect the p/v will be developing fairly well in ne Canada whilst the blocking sticks nw of Russia.

 

Yes that's true to an extent blue and requires watching but I did note that the GFS (P) and the ext ecm do push it east in the ext period. Mind that is a fair way down the line.

Chart weatherbell

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 00z op run shows our current anticyclonic spell holding on until sunday evening when rain arrives across the southwest and then next week becomes unsettled across all areas with bands of rain sweeping north / northeast across the uk with strong winds at times but with the occasional window of fine weather, more especially across the southeast of the uk. Temperature wise, next tuesday stands out as being a warm day with temps nudging into the low 20's celsius across the s/e thanks to warm 850's and sunny spells between a scattering of showers. Later next week and the following week look even more unsettled with lows chasing each other across the atlantic on an increasingly fired up jetstream with temperatures by then closer to where they should be during early to mid october. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY OCT 2ND 2015

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure remains slow moving across the UK but weakening slowly over the weekend.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 

CURRENT SNOW LYING UK AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE There is currently no snow lying in the UK but amounts in NE Russia, Alaska, Greenland along with the mountains of Iceland is increasing now as one would expect.

 

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly settled and fine at first but more unsettled and windy thereafter with rain or showers at times especially over the North and West.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the Northern arm of the flow weakening slowly as a new arm approaches the UK from the SW. This arm remains in situ as it continues to approach the UK and weaken and breaks up as it makes it's way into NW Europe. This pattern remains until late in the period when a more straightforward West to East flow across the Atlantic and the UK develops.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the weekend being the last days of the current fine spell as Low pressure and troughs move NE across the UK on occasion next week. Winds will also increase markedly from a point between South and west so never very cold. Through Week 2 a continuation of the unsettled theme seems likely with more Low pressure areas crossing East to the North of Scotland and pushing active troughs East over the UK with heavy rain, most prolific in the North and strong winds at times and temperatures near average.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

 

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run is fairly similar to the operational run though the second week commands a more definitive split between North and South with rain and strong winds continuing across the North while High pressure builds up close to the South later with mild SW winds and mostly dry weather for much of the time towards the end of the run.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show an almost unanimous picture that Low pressure will lie to the NW of the UK with West or SW winds likely across the UK pushing troughs East across most of the UK with rain and strong winds at times.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO today looks unsettled next week with two areas of rain crossing NE over the UK on both Monday and Tuesday with more showery conditions for Wednesday with the hint on the 144hr chart of further rain on an active Low pressure waiting in the wings across the Atlantic.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show High pressure declining steadily over the weekend with a complete change of weather type from Monday of next week as active Atlantic depressions and fronts spread wind and rain North and East across the UK with showers following in blustery West winds by midweek.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

 

GEM GEM continues the theme of unsettled conditions too next week with the emphasis on the wettest conditions always focused more towards the North and NW while some longer drier spells are most likely over the South and East of the UK where it is also shown to be quite mild at times.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM is similar to GEM in many respects with an even greater indication that the South and East could become drier again after the middle of next week as pressure builds over the nearby continent with rain bearing fronts held up to the NW.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

 

ECM ECM this morning has a very different approach to next weeks weather as it start with a wet and windy period with a couple of periods of rain and strong winds early in the week before drier conditions develop later especially over the East. Pressure then builds across Scandinavia and blocks the progress of all Atlantic wind and rain systems to all but the far SW of the UK by the end of the run with a keen SE breeze for most.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night continues to promote Low pressure to the NW with some influence across most of the UK with rain at times.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models still show little consistency in the way conditions will unfold once the current High pressure declines and the trough early next week moves into the UK from the SW.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead of UKMO at 99.5 pts to 99.4 with GFS closely behind at 99.3 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 96.8 pts to UKMO's 96.6 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 87.3 pts to UKMO at 87.1 pts then GFS at 84.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.7 pts over GFS's 53.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS  and ECM are tied at 36.1 pts each.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

MY THOUGHTS  We have a few more days of fine and settled weather across the UK before a marked change in the weather occurs at the start of next week. What is less clear is that once that change has occurred how long it will last before a return to better weather takes place and in that resolve none of the models offer any assurance this morning on any one evolution, Taking things step by step fine and bright weather over the weekend with mist and fog at night will remain the familiar pattern before cloud, wind and rain move up from the SW on Monday, a process that looks likely to be repeated on Tuesday before a spell of showers and sunny spells in a blustery WSW wind midweek. It's then that things become much less clear. The majority of output does suggest a shift of emphasis of any further wind and rain more towards the North and West from later next week with some longer drier and at times warmer spells towards the East and SE with GEM and NAVGEM promoting this the most. ECM has a rather different take on things as it sets up a blocking High over Scandinavia warding off any eastward progression of wind and rain from a rather unsettled looking Atlantic. The SW will then become most at risk of seeing some wind and rain from these Low pressure systems while all other areas see a SE wind and dry and bright weather predominating and if this evolves it could feel quite warm again in shelter. So once more this morning though a breakdown in the weather is virtually nailed on early next week the length and extent of it's establishment is still unclear and the East and South and possibly the North too could see a return to some drier conditions later.

 

WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.gif

The accolade of the worst chart of the day today goes to the GFS today at Day 5 as it shows a small and vigorous Low pressure area crossing England and Wales delivering rain and gales for a time.

 

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

The best chart of the day is taken from ECM at Day 9 which illustrates how High pressure to the NE of the UK can form a strong block to the Atlantic with in this case a lot of fine weather developing again across the UK after a period of more unsettled weather.

 

Next update from 09:00 Sunday Oct 3rd 2015

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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.

Just seen the Gfs 12z and looking at the bigger picture it's great to see the build up of cold to the NE :cold:

 

As for the uk, it's looking increasingly like an unsettled outlook next week and potentially further ahead with the atlantic really cranking up next week, especially later next week with spells of wet and windy weather. The Gfs 12z and now the Ecm 12z show a BIG change next week which i'm not disappointed about, some will want the anticyclonic spell to go on and on :lazy:  but I think it's time we had a change and it looks like we are going to get one! :D

Couldn't agree more, and while a change is most certainly on the cards, we yet again see by one of the leading European models today that this upcoming change is going to be felt to a lesser extent by some. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see this Euro block becoming more and more of a feature in future runs, hence returning anticyclonic conditions on a large scale. Patience may be required for those eagerly awaiting a full and sustained Atlantic onslaught. :angry:   

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

This morning's anomalies don't agree on the upper air evolution. The ecm has the Scandinavian ridge with LP Greenland with a SE orientated trough thus cyclonic unsettled westerly airflow over the UK. The GEFS however has ridging over the Pole and also to an extent over the UK with the trough relegated further east so still a westerly airflow but more influence by the HP.  In the ext period the Scandinavian ridge begins to loose it's grip and faniliar scenario unfolds the LP to the NW and a westerly airflow bringing average temps but the day to day features depending on the latitudinal movement of the cool/warmer air.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Yes Malc, The GFS 6z certainly shows it packing a punch.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

The ecm ens mean upper ridge n Scandi hugely impressive for a day 10 feature

Too early to be pumping those warmer uppers in this locale ????

Also, wondering how successful the atlanric is going to be in getting past the meridian over the next week or two.

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Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland

Daily comparison using the GFSECMUKMO, JMA, ICON, GEM, NAVGEM, NASA, CMA, FIM and the CFS all up to 240 hours along with the ECM and GFS ensembles. For each day whatever model has the most support will be shown for that time.

 

24 Hours Saturday (GEM)

As the last of the high pressure begins to move away its still looking sunny for most parts apart from the North which will be more cloudy.

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48 Hours Sunday (JMA)

Sunny start across the Eastern parts but elsewhere will be mostly cloudy with rain arriving from the South West on Sunday evening with strong winds where gusts could still reach around 60 mph across Western parts.

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72 Hours Monday (ECM)

Widespread wet and windy day for all of the UK and Ireland as low pressure moves past.

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96 Hours Tuesday (GFS)

The unsettled theme continues with more wet and windy weather as another low pressure system passes by.

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120 Hours Wednesday (ECM)

Turning drier and more sunny for most parts but still staying windy.

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144 Hours Thursday (UKMO)

Hurricane Joaquin enters the Atlantic.

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168 Hours Friday (GFS)

Hurricane Joaquin moves closer to the UK there still seems to be a disagreement between the models over the track. Five models show it taking a more Southerly route which would lead it coming to the UK and as the GFS shows it could bring gusts over 65 mph. However four other models show it going further North towards Iceland instead.

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192 & 216 & 240 Hours Saturday, Sunday and Monday (GFS & FIM)

Still looks mainly unsettled with a sign that high pressure may start to move in from the South West.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

A fascinating period coming from next week.

We know we have a more unsettled start to next week but after that will the Scandinavian block expand and repell the Atlantic systems which are modeled to deepen.

In the mix too is the ex-hurricane from the Carribean which may get caught up in the jetstream, so much uncertainy in the medium term.

Either we slide into a more prolonged wet and windy Autumnal spell or will the block fight back maybe returning us to a more quiet and settled spell with cold nights again.

As blue said the ht.anomalies forecasted further east are quite noticeable and can't at this stage be ignored.

Much to ponder in the 12z runs, and i wouldn't like to call this one. :cc_confused:

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The other week I was reading an article and it mentioned that current cyclonic activity in the Pacific was pushing the jet north, Looking at this sequence it would appear that Joaquin does exactly that, although more NE, to end up in a position west of Ireland. According to the GFS of course.

 

Be bold Phil you know the trough is 60-40.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Evening all :)

 

A nasty little feature crossing Ireland on Tuesday with a spell of wind and rain for all:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015100212/gfs-0-96.png?12

 

As for Joaquin, it takes a more traditional path as depressions often do:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015100212/gfs-0-168.png?12

 

Wind, possibly a lot of rain as these ex-hurricanes seem to embed plenty of moisture as they transition to ex-tropical features.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015100212/gfs-0-264.png?12

 

FI gets a lot more settled with HP taking over

 

GEM offers a stormier Joaquin:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2015100212/gem-0-168.png?12

 

UKMO wouldn't be too far away from GFS at T+168 so we await ECM which seems to have called this storm's development in the western Atlantic very well.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

ECM ends on a cold and blocked note for much of Central/Eastern Europe.

The UK into cool Westerlies with showers if this were to verify.

 

ECH1-240.GIF?02-0

 

Let's hope this Autumn northern blocking can reappear in winter

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

The Ecm shows some serious cold for so so early in the season for Scandinavia, if this verifies  then some record cold so early on.. meanwhile The Uk gets the wet and wild ride........ :fool:

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

It will be interesting to see what happens after the deepish low pressure past T144hrs. If the block holds to the east we might see some trough disruption near the UK. The cold pool over western Russia remains throughout and theres likely to be some snowfall there adding to the rapid cooldown. Theres no sign yet of the block getting much further west but the interest is on that cold pool and how long it can hang on for.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The anomalies tonight are at least in fair agreement.

 

Ridge Scandinavia with trough Russia swinging down through eastern Europe with some cold air. Low Greenland with trough SE over the UK which probably has the greater influence than the NE block although it's a rather tight situation. Looking in the ext period the blocking high weakens and drifts east accompanied by a slight relaxation of the Greenland trough with some slight height rises to the south west,  This should result in a westerly flow with average temps and the cold air way to the east meaning the early dafs are still on track.

 

I should add the latest EC32 update also shunts the blocking high east and has a temporary height rise to the SW before settling on the familiar westerly flow with LP to the NW.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

To be honest, when it comes to blocking highs over Scandinavia or Russia, I find longer-range model output to be pretty much useless. Just my opinion of course!

 

Certainly some fascinating prospects on offer from ECM yet again this evening, in fact the 12z det. seems to be the most extreme run so far in terms of how that cold progresses across Scandinavia by day 10.

 

It's achieved via development of a large low south of the blocking ridge. The GFS det. runs have been reluctant to develop this feature, and although the 18z does, it has a low over Siberia creating a break in the blocking high through which the former low escapes. With out support to the south, the blocking high sinks slowly south and things end up looking a lot like the 12z det. which was very benign for much of the time from +192 to +384. If it turns out that quiet I'll be dozing off each evening  :closedeyes:  :rolleyes:

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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.

Compared to recently, much more amplification in Fi charts is gaining momentum again from two of the main players in the   overnight runs. In summary.. mixed rather than unsettled/disturbed outlook. :)  

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Morning all! Again, Tropical storms playing havoc with model output, Ecm and Ghs show great differences by the time we get to T+144 :closedeyes:

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

The GFS continues to show a wet blustery Autumnal start to the new Week, As Low Pressure pushes North through the Irish sea into the far N/W.

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Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Is it my imagination or does the longer term ens output begin to resemble last autumn/early winter where the jet dived from the gricelandic trough down to our south east with blocking over n Russia and the Atlantic to our west?

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