Model Output Discussion 18z 30/09/15

[Man With Beard]

ECM gives a rerun of the current very mild/warm scenario next weekend with an even better gradient in the pressure for keeping winds up and fog away. So another weekend with sunshine and temps in the 60sF, it would suggest. Those with weddings coming up surely cannot believe their luck.

[Summer Sun]

With high pressure dominating over mainland Europe the southern half of the UK looks set to remain dry for a lengthy time some low pressure systems will get close by at times, but these only really affecting the far north no washout here by any means as there will be some fine weather at times

 

 

These Euro's highs can take some shifting once they get in place the one crumb of comfort for coldies is these charts are appearing now rather than the middle of winter so ample time for change yet

Edited October 31, 2015 by Summer Sun

[knocker]

The GEFS 6-10 anomaly keeps the HP in place but in the 11-15 time frame still insists on flattening the pattern but much of this depends on how far north the HP extends. Certainly NOAA is not overly impressed with this but perhaps moving in that direction.

Edited October 31, 2015 by knocker

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z op run shows the north and west of the uk becoming increasingly unsettled with a risk of gales at times towards the end of next week onwards as the atlantic really cranks up and eventually all areas become unsettled with bouts of rain and strong winds and even a risk of polar maritime incursions flirting with northern britain, the charts through low res look more typical of early / mid november..i'm hoping we will see a change to more dynamic atlantic driven weather as we go further into november with colder PM shots.    

[legritter]

As Summer sun points out great that we have this synoptic pattern rather than having it in our winter ,of course we could still get it come winter but still possible to get some cold shots as well .

well today was a fantastic day and more to come .

does look like the Atlantic will have a big push later on in the longer range charts but its going to struggle against that euro high ,but gang hang on and a change will come i,m sure , but charts do have a look of Groundhog day ,lets enjoy it while we can .