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Model Output Discussion 18z 30/09/15


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

FI I know, however the GFS run that has just ran has an epic looking +384, obviously mid Oct but still looks good. A few days on and this could produce really cold weather for late Oct with an Arctic blast and big Greeny high.

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

FI I know, however the GFS run that has just ran has an epic looking +384, obviously mid Oct but still looks good. A few days on and this could produce really cold weather for late Oct with an Arctic blast and big Greeny high.

With about o% chance of verifying!

Edited by Severe Siberian icy blast
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

With about o% chance of verifying!

Fully aware of that - just pointing a good FI chart out.
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

I think you know where i am coming from MIA.

People are entitled to post any reasonable views on the models in here but we do get new members every year who may appreciate some objective balance.

I will be as optimistic as anyone wrt cold and snow- if these patterns are around in Winter but for now it's nothing out of the ordinary.

 

That i suppose was the point of my post. :)

 

Obviously I didn't phrase it very well - I completely agree with you and the post.

 

Ah -   just seen the problem. My reply above to SSIB's post,did not separate my reply from his original post. I then edited it after seeing your response. I was tryimg to actually agree with your post.!

 

My post to SSIB  was suggesting that nothing is fixed yet (as per 2014-15),etc.  

 

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

FI I know, however the GFS run that has just ran has an epic looking +384, obviously mid Oct but still looks good. A few days on and this could produce really cold weather for late Oct with an Arctic blast and big Greeny high.

Certainly concievable charts October is looking like a blocked sort of month with Eurasia rapidly cooling down expect big expanses in snow/ice extent of N. Hemisphere. It is starting to get exciting once again. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

With about o% chance of verifying!

 

The chart has about zero chance of verifying but that doesn't mean the weather type has zero chance of verifying.

 

I wrote the other day about the very cold October analogues on the NOAA upper air charts - '92 and '74 specifically - both with cold Atlantic SST profiles. Have a look at the synoptics for '92: month begins similarly to now and evolves as the end of current GFS. I'm NOT suggesting it is correct or that it will hapen, just pointing out that these synoptics have occurred before and no reason they cannot happen again.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=1&month=10&hour=0&year=1992&map=0&mode=2

 

IXsSkVM.png

Edited by Nouska
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Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland

Daily comparison using the GFSECMUKMO, JMA, ICON, GEM, NAVGEM, NASA, CMA, FIM and the CFS all up to 240 hours along with the ECM and GFS ensembles. For each day whatever model has the most support will be shown for that time.

 

24 Hours Monday (NASA)

Widespread unsettled weather with rain and gale force winds around all of the UK and Ireland as a low pressure system passes through.

post-6686-0-25726700-1443962326_thumb.pn

 

48 Hours Tuesday (ECM)

The wind eases down for most places however still staying very windy over the far North of the UK. As more low pressure comes in it will be mostly cloudy with more rain arriving.

post-6686-0-78501600-1443962326_thumb.pn

 

72 Hours Wednesday (GFS)

Staying cloudy and wet in the North while drying up with some sunshine in the South.

post-6686-0-25459800-1443962327_thumb.pn

 

96 Hours Thursday (NAVGEM)

Hurricane Joaquin enters the Atlantic and still looks to take a Southerly route. Over at the UK its looking like a nice and sunny day with a breezy wind.

post-6686-0-27127400-1443962328_thumb.pn

 

120 Hours Friday (GEM)

After a sunny start for most places it will turn cloudy. Hurricane Joaquin begins to lose strength as it sits to the far North West of Spain.

post-6686-0-77264300-1443962328_thumb.pn

 

144 Hours Saturday (UKMO)

Hurricane Joaquin continues to weaken as it moves North East to the South West of Ireland.

post-6686-0-14208300-1443962330_thumb.pn

 

168 to 240 Hours Sunday to Wednesday (GEM & GFS & FIM)

Most of the models at this point show high pressure sitting to the North East of the UK while low pressure passes underneath near the West of Ireland. As we head into mid October a more settled outlook is still looking likely.

post-6686-0-49766900-1443962330_thumb.pn post-6686-0-81388000-1443962330_thumb.pn post-6686-0-17278600-1443962331_thumb.pn post-6686-0-50761500-1443962331_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Obviously I didn't phrase it very well - I completely agree with you and the post.

 

Ah -   just seen the problem. My reply above to SSIB's post,did not separate my reply from his original post. I then edited it after seeing your response. I was tryimg to actually agree with your post.!

 

My post to SSIB  was suggesting that nothing is fixed yet (as per 2014-15),etc.  

 

MIA

 

No worries MIA :)

 

Meanwhile the 06z GFS run unsurprisingly continues with Blocking theme-here at T144hrs.

post-2026-0-52883800-1443963883_thumb.pnpost-2026-0-79664000-1443963896_thumb.pnpost-2026-0-58178000-1443963910_thumb.pn

 

the northern jet become weak and fragmented, not able to make any headway against the high.Cold air continung to envelop Russia/Scandinavia and creeping towards E.Europe.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

ECM, you must be Joaquin!  :hi:

 

If we were in Winter this forum would be in meltdown, not only for the potential wintry prospects presented by most models but also because this mornings ECM run would put many into headless chicken mode (many means me really  :D ) as that would be pretty much the death knell  for norther blocking and cold getting toward the UK if it verified.

 

Thankfully we can sit back and relax at this time of year and treat it as an early season experiment in how the models are preforming.

It seems that this mornings ECM Op is out on a limb , even within its own ensemble set judging by the anomaly charts and the other models, even UKMO sides much more with GFS.

 

It is not just the track of Joaquin either but developments to our east are quite different before Joaquin has any influence on the block with other models developing a deep trough over Russia which prevents the block sinking away SE before Joaquin arrives. 

Below GFS, UKMO, ECM 120h pressure pattern comparison.

 

gfsnh-0-114.pngUN120-21.GIFECH1-120.GIF?04-12

 

Given the evidence we would expect a different looking ECM this evening which is much closer to the other models in terms of maintaining an amplified pattern and northern blocking from the mid range but it is nice to be able to watch this unfold without being too emotionally invested in the outcome (yes weather geeks are that, erm, geeky! )

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Brief bit of deeper autumn then Indian summer at T240. FI watching at the best.

Now in the past Hurricanes used to really mess up the models nothing to say this isn't the case tonight either.

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

"If only it were January"

 

attachicon.gifJanuary.gif

yep watching  countrty file weather next weekend   a beast from the east only problem  its a mouth to early, back to the present weather  its looking like a very unsettled week  to come

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

"If only it were January"

 

attachicon.gifJanuary.gif

 

all deep FI, probably actually a pants run, 216 and 240 charts, pants if it were Jan

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

ECM does try to ramp up a vortex of sorts to our north between +192 and +240 of the det. run (surprising given how Joaquin heads SW of the UK on this run) but the dominant signal from the det. runs and ensembles is for a rather benign setup to return, this time it could be less 'stunning' than what we had last week, but I suppose some dry air could get pulled in to create lots of crystal clear skies again.

 

Low pressure slipping in place over NW Europe could bother the south with some rain though. Elsewhere, the next couple of days look to be a blip in a predominantly dry theme, though if any Atlantic frontal systems due make it to the UK against that blocking high then some prolonged rainfall would be a likely result so that's something to keep an eye on. The blocking high seems favoured to stay in control, though.

 

That chilly air to our east may well lead to a nagging chill in the wind what with the low pressure being signaled for NW Europe. I can't say I'm looking forward to such prospects, but if the associated blocking high to the north of the low can drive warm air advection up into the Arctic and mess with that vortex then it may well be worth enduring for the longer term gains. This perspective won't work for everyone of course (e.g. I gather that Knocker is not a fan of winter cold?).

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

WOW! Good evening Folks!  Ex Hurricane Joaquin has proved the models completely clueless....I don't think Ive seen the models so different at a short time range. I must say the Ecms evolution is rather strange as it dives Joaquin into Europe, The Gfs shows the more default  pattern......... :cc_confused:  :nonono:  :rofl: We shall see.....

post-6830-0-12396400-1443989092_thumb.pn

post-6830-0-46976100-1443989168_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Nonetheless it is good to be seeing cold air flooding Eastern scandi and Eastern Europe. This means that any easterly that could develop later on would have some degree of teeth applied to it!

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Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham. Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham. Essex

Hi All.

Can anybody help ??

Iam off to mallorca for a weeks holiday  on the 12th October..been looking at charts, but

there seems to be some conflicting ones.

 can anybody help to what kind of weather to expect for the week.

sorry if I have posted in the wrong forum

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Given the atmospheric upheaval caused by Joaquin the anomalies tonight are pretty similar just some differences regarding the Scandinavian HP. Put simply the evolution is replacing the brief ridge over the UK at the end of this week by the Atlantic trough moving east which by T240 has morphed into a virtually closed system over norther Europe as ridging progresses to the south west with low remaining Canada/Greenland. Weatherwise, in general not detail, after a brief hiatus it looks like settling down to a westerly flow with LP to the NW and HP to the SW with a connection to the HP to the NE until it's shunted away east taking the colder air with it out of harms way.

post-12275-0-45097500-1443993934_thumb.p

post-12275-0-99148700-1443993941_thumb.p

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

That from the ECM 12z this evening is a thing of beauty @ just 72hrs with that WAA pumping up into the pole regions and nearly a cross polar flow there,could this HP get cut off!

 

post-16960-0-88643700-1443993683_thumb.p

 

the gfs,gem and ukmo very similar too,just need to see these charts nearer to winter but nice to look at though :)

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Hi All.

Can anybody help ??

Iam off to mallorca for a weeks holiday  on the 12th October..been looking at charts, but

there seems to be some conflicting ones.

 can anybody help to what kind of weather to expect for the week.

sorry if I have posted in the wrong forum

 

A little far out for forecasts but it should be low to mid 20s, possibly with showers around at first.

You are best getting the pro forecasts nearer the time if you are worried whether to pack a brolly :)

Otherwise why worry? You can't change it.  :D

Good luck with some sunshine and warmth though.

 

------------------

 

GFS 18z send Joaquin under the block so it is pretty much a coin toss at this stage.

 

gfsnh-0-150.png?18

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The GEFs anomalies this morning continue the theme of building pressure from the SW and a general area of low pressure Europe whilst at the same time removing the block. Could well give a period of quite pleasant weather albeit a bit cool. So nothing unpleasant in the woodshed and it looks like a bumper crop of dafs this year.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

post-12275-0-78382900-1444030755_thumb.p

post-12275-0-08616600-1444030763_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY OCT 5TH 2015

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Low pressure areas and troughs will move NNE across the UK both today and tomorrow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 

CURRENT SNOW LYING UK AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE There is currently no snow lying in the UK with the freezing level near or just under 10000ft across the UK.

 

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Changeable with some rain at times but with some lengthy dry and settled periods developing again too.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow splitting North and South of the UK later this week at the same time as the flow becomes very weak next week and generally well to the North of the UK. It then dips South across the UK late in Week 2 as High pressure lies across the Atlantic.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the current change to more unsettled weather generally very short-lived in as much as by Thursday pressure will of rebuilt strongly to the East and NE of the UK. Low pressure to the SW and then South will bring an Easterly flow across the UK and it will probably have a chill to it before High pressure to the North transfers to the West of the UK and sets up our first cold Northerly flow of the season at the end of the run with showers or rain at times and snow over Scottish mountains.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

 

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run has some similarities to the Operational Run with High pressure re-establishing across the UK by the end of the week and weekend with fine and dry weather for many. Through Week 2 there also is a fall of pressure to the SE with a strong and cold NE flow too shown with some rain and showers in the South and East to end the period.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters in 14 days is for High pressure to lie over the Atlantic either to the West or SW with a mix of options under West or NW winds between dry and fine or cool and damp weather.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?

LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO today shows a ridge of High pressure developing over the UK later this week and drifting across to Scandinavia by the weekend. SE winds will increase across the South and West perhaps with some rain with drier weather holding on elsewhere though with a chilly breeze.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning follows the raw data well with pressure rising again after midweek largely responsible to the remains of the ex tropical feature Joaquin moving into the SW approaches at the end of the week which pumps up some warm Southerly winds ahead of it for next weekend.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

 

GEM GEM also builds High pressure back across the UK from the East by the weekend with fine and dry weather for many although the temperatures of the recent fine spell are unlikely to be replicated as it may well feel chilly especially in the far South and SE where a keen East or NE breeze will blow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM is less supportive of a full settling down of the weather later this week as it brings the remains of ex hurricane Joaquin close to Southern England over next weekend with rain at times across the South with cool and breezy but fine conditions further to the North in association with High pressure to the North and NE.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

 

ECM ECM this morning shows a similar theme to the rest with High pressure developing first over and then to the East and NE of the UK by next weekend as Low pressure moves east to the South of the UK. The resultant Easterly flow will bring some rain to the far South but much of the UK will be dry and bright but chilly and as winds fall lighter late in the period some overnight mist, fog and frost look possible.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night indicates the UK lying between High pressure both to the SW and NE with the weather likely to be mostly quite benign across the British Isles.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is good agreement now on a largely fine and benign spell of weather developing again across the UK from later this week.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead of UKMO at 99.5 pts to 99.4 with GFS closely behind at 99.3 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 96.9 pts to UKMO's 96.68pts while GFS lags behind at 95.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 87.3 pts to UKMO at 86.4 pts then GFS at 83.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.2 pts over GFS's 51.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 36.2 pts to 34.4 pts.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

MY THOUGHTS  There seems a lot of agreement this morning that High pressure will again become the dominant feature of the weather across the UK as we move through the second half of this week and through the weekend and probably beyond. For now though we have a couple of days of potentially quite wet weather as warm and moist humid air moves across the UK with showers or longer periods of potentially thundery rain and brisk winds as well. Soon after midweek fresher air will push the rain away to the East and the rest of the week becomes largely fine and quiet weather-wise as High pressure builds across the UK as well as to the East and NE of the UK. We still have to watch the final movements of ex-hurricane Joaquin as it is generally agreed now that it is looking likely to move to a position to the SW and South of the UK but there is some output which does show it close enough to push some rain into the SW and South of the UK over the weekend. This is by no means a certainty but it is conceivable the models could still have this movement wrong and it could end up affecting more areas or nowhere at all. Then we have to look forward to Week 2 which currently doesn't look too bad with the quieter version of Autumn weather looking more likely than anything particularly stormy or unpleasant so once again this morning once we lose the current wet conditions we look to be likely to enjoy some quiet but not necessarily as warm conditions as the previous fine spell to highlight those Autumn colours more.

 

WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

 

The accolade of the worst chart of the day goes to GFS at T+384hrs with Low pressure to the East and a rasping Northerly flow over the North Sea and the UK with cold weather with wintry showers across the North and East.

 

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2281.gif

 

Contrastingly, the best chart of the day today is the GEM 228hr one which highlights another sustained fine spell with a blocking High across the North of the UK with much if not all of the UK fine and dry once more.

 

Next update from 09:00 Tuesday Oct 6th 2015

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