Winter 2015/16

[Costa Del Fal]

One thing that has been missing in recentt years is a very long fetch unstable northerly during the winter months. Really hope to have that set up this winter as it can lead to great radar watching if snow showers are your thing.

Northerlies are only ok if you are on the coast for snow. Elsewhere it's bitterly cold but dry. Pointless generally. Yes the odd front may come down but usually weak down here by then.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Last winter was very good for here, although quite localised. Had a week of lying snow mid January followed by a day of blizzards at the end of the month leaving waist deep drifts. This then lay for two weeks into Feb. A repeat this year would be very welcome, coupled with Dec 2010 temperatures!

Was quite crap here, on the wrong side of marginal 99% of the time, even the local fells didn't get much.

[Geordiesnow]

Northerlies are only ok if you are on the coast for snow. Elsewhere it's bitterly cold but dry. Pointless generally. Yes the odd front may come down but usually weak down here by then.

 

Don't think that is the case at all, a true stright Northerly with a slight eastward edge can have snow showers heading well inland across Eastern areas in particular, a Northerly with a slight western edge seems to create more of a coastal wishbone effect regarding the showers but as the poster alluded too, we had not had a true stright Northerly which lasted over 24 hours for a long long time now it seems. 

[cheese]

Northerlies are great here, like the late November/early December 2010 one.

Edited October 1, 2015 by cheese

[Costa Del Fal]

Don't think that is the case at all, a true stright Northerly with a slight eastward edge can have snow showers heading well inland across Eastern areas in particular, a Northerly with a slight western edge seems to create more of a coastal wishbone effect regarding the showers but as the poster alluded too, we had not had a true stright Northerly which lasted over 24 hours for a long long time now it seems.

Always going to be a small inland push and in the north the chances are always better. In Newcastle you have no problem so your comment doesn't surprise lol. For many of us here in the south there is no chance. Edited October 1, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[JeffC]

The NW quarter of the UK did ok for snow last winter thanks to injections of unstable polar maritime air, but conditions were marginal for lower ground. Places with height did quite well, we were often just on the right side of marginal with a number of slight coverings from time to time, but never amounting to much.

 

The last decent fall of snow here was the 26 Jan 2013 when we recorded 8 inches. We missed out in March 2013.

And yet bizarrely here at Coniston, only few

Miles west of you,March 22/23 2013 was a memorable snow event with about 18" of snow before it started to drift.

Drifts uneven on the lower fells were over waist deep

[solarcycle]

Also everyone seems to forget how sunny last winter was. Record winter sunshine if I recall correctly, nowhere near as bad as the horrors of the 13/14 winter.

[MP-R]

Don't think the Mendip hills had any snow last year, if we did it was certainly so forgettable it didn't register with me. The snow in Yorkshire on Boxing day has to rate as one of the most frustrating from my perspective......we were in Swaledale for Christmas, forecasts promising snow but all it did was rain. Couldn't quite believe it, thought that nonsense was a soggy South West phenomena. We did find snow by driving up the dale to the Tan Hill Inn but even at that height, it was no more than a dusting. The journey home on the 27th however was a bleeding nightmare - stationary or very slow traffic because of the snow meant it took nearly 7 hours to get from Swaledale to roughly Nottingham. Normal 5 hour journey turned into an epic 11 hour stint. Bonkers!

 

There was snow up there on January 14th, 29th and March 03rd. In my last job I had a lot more free time so went up there and took photos on Jan 14th and Mar 03rd. It was a winter of little Pm dumps rather than significant dumps - was nice to see nonetheless with mostly clear skies on both occasions. I'll post some piccies when I get time. On those same days there was snow falling even in Yatton but it never settled, only briefly on Jan 29th. Last winter was notable for its sunshine and had a decent number of frosts, scattered throughout December and especially in the second half of January and first half of February. If only some of the close-calls in January actually brought snow to lower levels, I'd hold the winter in higher regard.

 

Fingers crossed for less marginality this coming winter.

[Evening thunder]

Also everyone seems to forget how sunny last winter was. Record winter sunshine if I recall correctly, nowhere near as bad as the horrors of the 13/14 winter.

 

Even that was sunnier than average for most in England, which defeats the idea that proper Atlantic driven weather is generally grey and dull.

Edited October 2, 2015 by Evening thunder

[March Blizzard]

Also everyone seems to forget how sunny last winter was. Record winter sunshine if I recall correctly, nowhere near as bad as the horrors of the 13/14 winter.

That isn't my recollection, at least IMBY, so I checked the Met Office maps:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2015/winter

Turns out my impressions of a generally dull, wet winter are founded in fact - I'm in that blue blob on the rainfall anomoly map and the grey blob on the sunshine anomoly map!

It wasn't all bad, though, considering I saw quite a few wintry showers throughout the winter, with incredible falls on Boxing Day and in late Jan, with snow lying for at least a week into February, which was the sunniest and frostiest segment of the winter.

Edited October 2, 2015 by March Blizzard

[lorenzo]

Autumn in full swing, getting darker earlier - thoughts turn to the Winter ahead.

 

Some initial thoughts attached below for folks to have a look through, looking at ENSO Solar and impact on stratosphere.

 

In part working through the learning elements from last winter.

 

October Forecast Update.pdf

[cheshire snow]

Only two snow events stuck out for me last year, the first was

On Boxing Day, when heavy rain, gave way to a heavy period

Of snow, which gave a 4cm covering, which stuck around for

Four days.

The second event was the Polar low (the exact date I do not

Remember) gave a 5cm covering in a very short space of times.

There were further wintry showers, however these failed to

Settle, winter ended here late February with the heaviest fall

Of snow of the winter, snowed for a couple of hours, but failed

To stick.

C.S

Edited October 2, 2015 by cheshire snow

[cheshire snow]

Autumn in full swing, getting darker earlier - thoughts turn to the Winter ahead.

 

Some initial thoughts attached below for folks to have a look through, looking at ENSO Solar and impact on stratosphere.

 

In part working through the learning elements from last winter.

Thanks for posting, very informative.

C.S

[Mark Neal.]

the good news is that the long range modelling goes for blocking in november and february this morning.....take a snapshot of those chart though folks as it will have probably changed by tomorrow morning 

That long? Probably changed by next model run lol 

[Nick L]

February 1998 please.

 

Your sudden love of mild really baffles me, Scott. Last winter you were as enthusiastic as anyone about snow and cold...?

[Weather-history]

Read the snow addiction thread...

I have and I'm still baffled because you made the announcement by resurrecting a months old thread in which no one had made a post in since the end of last year and declaring you hate snow in the middle of summer or end of July when it hasn't snowed for weeks. I don't get it. I could understand if we had weeks of snow or the start of the new season or someone had opened "are you looking forward to the return of snow" but to make it in the midst of summer, I just find it strange. It's almost announced like someone coming out that they are gay.

[Methuselah]

That's it - winter is over!

[Mokidugway]

He's a student now,won't want to pay heating bill for his digs ..

[Nick L]

That actually made me chuckle a bit actually.

 

I just felf like saying that I hated cold and snow....

 

Each to their own, and all. It's just that for nostalgia I had a read of last year's winter thread and you were as snow mad as the rest of us

 

Anyway, all I want for this winter is a proper cold spell lasting more than a few days. Last winter it was mostly PM cold spells, which are pretty useless down here. We never seemed to get any real, embedded cold.

[Cloud 10]

 

 

I just felf like saying that I hated cold and snow....

 

Nobody's perfect.

[cheese]

Your sudden love of mild really baffles me, Scott. Last winter you were as enthusiastic as anyone about snow and cold...?

Apparently he was nearly involved in an accident because of snow. That being said, I got stuck on a flooded bus when I was 11 and I don't hate rain. I also had to walk home without a coat, in shorts, during a thunderstorm, when I was about 8, along with my sister and cousin, and I still love storms.

 

Meh. Like you said, each to their own - but going from loving snow to actively despising it because of one little incident seems rather unusual to me.

 

Anyway - last winter certainly was very sunny here. December 2010 was also very sunny if I recall. Winter 2012/2013 was not - the opposite in fact.

Edited October 2, 2015 by cheese

[phil nw.]

This what snow lovers should wish  for

 

yes the famous cold spell of late Nov./Dec. 2010 where we had nationwide Wintry conditions with deep cold and snow.

Some recent posts are wishing for Northerlies but this was not a true Northerly from the Pole.I would contend that it was a Polar Continental airmass

Note when the spell started the Severe cold was coming around the favourably orientated Greenland block from the North East.

The source of the deep cold was N.Russia via Scandinavia with only a short hop across the North Sea-the best direction for these conditions.

 

Tbh Northerlies these days-even direct ones-rarely bring such deep cold as the North Atlantic still acts as a modifying influence,except in the rare case of an embedded polar low or trough.

Even the coldest northeries are usually dry inland and further south so they are often a localised event for favoured windward coasts and hills.Living here in the Midlands i have seen this frustatingly many times over recent years.

No the best setup is as above,similar to that 2010 event.That reminded me of conditions seen for many weeks in the 62/3 Winter with deep cold and powder snow.

 

Yep maybe it's time for another Siberian blast.

 

[Daniel*]

That's it - winter is over!

How much did Scott pay you?

[Thundery wintry showers]

Nobody's perfect.

I vaguely remember seeing that picture- was that from the late-November 2010 spell that Phil NW just posted about?  I can just imagine being up in the Durham area wondering what those Cb cells will bring once they drift in from the North Sea...

 

I used to get into heated debates in the past about the fabled "Scandi" high bringing easterlies versus northerlies from a "Greenland" high, since I have had many bad experiences with dry cloudy south-easterlies via a Scandinavian High, but I think Phil is right, taking the country as a whole the most optimal "snow setup" is to have a Greenland High ridging east, so after an initial northerly or easterly blast you end up with polar continental air coming in from the north-east.  A similar progression occurred between 17 and 20 December 2010, and it was similar during the early January 2010 spell.  The main issue with a direct northerly for me is the "wishbone effect"- the country is higher than it is wide, if you get what I mean, and so it is harder for showery activity and organised snowfalls via embedded fronts/troughs to penetrate as far inland. 

 

I remember I used to have more of an "in my back yard" Tyneside coastal perspective, where straight northerlies tend to bring east-coast snow showers while a north-easterly or easterly can bring greater marginality, but in that late-November 2010 spell, snow showers often occurred right out to the sea front even with a stiff wind coming right in off the sea- and it was still only November!

Edited October 2, 2015 by Thundery wintry showers

[cheese]

The near-car crash incident, yes. but it was other factors - mainly March 2013. Before my hatred for snow manifested, I did enjoy it. I loved winter 2009-10 (which stays very close to me), December 2010 and February 2012, but unfortunately March 2013 came and completely spoiled it. That was the month when I was nearly in the car crash and the way the cold just dragged on well into spring just thoroughly annoyed me. I was also left complelely stranded out in the freezing snow and ice after college one day, when the trams and buses stopped running, so I had to walk for miles.

 

Last winter I completely hidden my hatred for snow so that I didn't come across as a misery, but since then one or two members wanted me to be truthful.

 

Just because I would prefer a mild winter doesn't mean that anyone who wants a cold winter is in the wrong in any way. If this winter does turn out to be the coldies dream, then I hope they enjoy it and it leaves them with some brilliant memories, like December 2010 has...

 

Hopefully that has cleared it up a bit, and I'll stop wingeing now.

Okay - but I feel that if you enjoyed 2009-2010 but didn't enjoy March 2013, then you simply prefer cold, snowy weather in winter but don't want it to continue in spring - which is fair enough. Well, actually, any preference is fair enough!